The Labour Party

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

The political instincts here are the same as the familiar reasons for not closing the Central Wales railway line. "It goes through seven marginal constituencies." The extended ULEZ covers a lot of marginal constituencies. And asthmatic children don't vote.

That’s alright then………

 

[johnnytapia]

Nice. You can tell that they’re all off on their summer holidays. And they say teachers have it easy.

The two reasons I became a teacher:
July and August

 

[Postman Pep]

If you suspect that the Greens will turn over a 30,000 majority when Labour are 20pts ahead in the polls, then I'd get yourself to the bookies - you'll get good odds on that ;)

I am sorry ? You think that the Greens who's only MP is stepping down at the next GE because she thinks she can be more effective outside the HoC can overturn a 28k+ majority in Debbonaire's seat?

Oops

 

[bluenova]

Oops

I'd say the same thing. If you think it's going to happen then I'd get yourself down to the bookies.

I would still be very surprised though. These MRP polls are very clever, and when aggregated across the whole country they are very good at predicting overall seat numbers for the larger parties. For individual seats, particularly so far out from the actual election date, they are still wildly inaccurate much of the time.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Oops

Bristol Central is a future seat created for the next election.

This potential change is because of the boundaries changing, there are lots of affluent and even very affluent people living in wards within those new boundaries. Places like Clifton, Redland and Cotham. People with liberal and even very liberal views but also people that don't like higher taxation and sharing "their money" with those less well off.

The Greens have essentially taken over the role of the lib Dems as a viable protest vote.

However the labour voters lost from the old boundaries (and transferred to Bristol North West) will likely secure Darren Jones and his successors a higher majority.

 

[TinFoilHat]

Labour should use 30p Lee in their election material.

They'll smash the election on that alone.

 

[Postman Pep]

Bristol Central is a future seat created for the next election.

This potential change is because of the boundaries changing, there are lots of affluent and even very affluent people living in wards within those new boundaries. Places like Clifton, Redland and Cotham. People with liberal and even very liberal views but also people that don't like higher taxation and sharing "their money" with those less well off.

The Greens have essentially taken over the role of the lib Dems as a viable protest vote.

However the labour voters lost from the old boundaries (and transferred to Bristol North West) will likely secure Darren Jones and his successors a higher majority.

So their confidence is not necessarily misplaced then ?

I'd say the same thing. If you think it's going to happen then I'd get yourself down to the bookies.

It's going in my GE request a bet alongside Labour winning 490 seats :)

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

So their confidence is not necessarily misplaced then ?

No. But context is important.

New 'Bristol Central' seat sparks Green Party confidence

Will people vote the same way at a General Election as they did for their local councillor?

www.google.com

Bristol Central mainly matches the old Bristol West seat, but no longer includes any voters who live east of Temple Way and Temple Meads, in communities like Easton, Barton Hill and Lawrence Hill.

If you remove somewhere like Easton it's no wonder Labour are down on expected votes.

Let's remember that by chasing a second seat at the last election these shysters caused a good labour constituency MP to lose his seat to the Tories in Stroud.

They may win the seat, but apart from isolated pockets in affluent areas or university town constituencies, they won't be challenging for others.

 

[bluenova]

It's going in my GE request a bet alongside Labour winning 490 seats :)

We can but hope.

I quite like Thangam Debbonaire, but would prefer the Greens to win a few seats. So long as it doesn't make them giddy elsewhere and they let more Tories in.

 

[BrianW]

If only we had PR then we could all vote for what we want instead of voting against what we most dislike to stop them 'getting in'.

On that basis, I would never vote Labour again. At least not until they completely transformed themselves.