The Post General Election Thread

[Prestwich_Blue]

The key thing is all those studies spout the same old rubbish, of course the country deserves a pay rise. I worked hard this week, I deserve a pay rise! Of course in an ideal world we would all be on footballers wages and England winning the world cup. The simple fact is fiscal responsibility is paramount for any business and many businesses right now are struggling.

But why are they struggling when the economy is supposed to be growing and real wages have decreased? Businesses should be reporting record profits shouldn't they? But any cas they have isn't being invested and investment produces growth.

They're struggling because people aren't really spending in those businesses and because they're not investing. Capital investment in 2013 was the lowest for over 20 years.

The economy grew under Blair/Brown because they borrowed heavily to invest in infrastructure and services. You can certainly argue they were less than prudent in continuing to borrow so much in a time of rising growth but no one really predicted the carnage that 2008 brought.

It's a Catch-22. There will never be a solid recovery until output & productivity improves but that won't improve until people spend and business feels confident enough to invest. We've always under-invested - it's not a recent thing by the way. But further cuts won't do that. Austerity is a myth.

There a big article about it (<a class="postlink" href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng- ... y-delusion</a>) which I won't quote in full but here's a salient bit:

Normally, monetary authorities – the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England – can respond to a temporary economic downturn by cutting interest rates; this encourages private spending, especially on housing, and sets the stage for recovery. But there’s a limit to how much they can do in that direction. Until recently, the conventional wisdom was that you couldn’t cut interest rates below zero. We now know that this wasn’t quite right, since many European bonds now pay slightly negative interest. Still, there can’t be much room for sub-zero rates. And if cutting rates all the way to zero isn’t enough to cure what ails the economy, the usual remedy for recession falls short.

So it was in 2008-2009. By late 2008 it was already clear in every major economy that conventional monetary policy, which involves pushing down the interest rate on short-term government debt, was going to be insufficient to fight the financial downdraft. Now what? The textbook answer was and is fiscal expansion: increase government spending both to create jobs directly and to put money in consumers’ pockets; cut taxes to put more money in those pockets.

But won’t this lead to budget deficits? Yes, and that’s actually a good thing. An economy that is depressed even with zero interest rates is, in effect, an economy in which the public is trying to save more than businesses are willing to invest. In such an economy the government does everyone a service by running deficits and giving frustrated savers a chance to put their money to work. Nor does this borrowing compete with private investment. An economy where interest rates cannot go any lower is an economy awash in desired saving with no place to go, and deficit spending that expands the economy is, if anything, likely to lead to higher private investment than would otherwise materialise.

It’s true that you can’t run big budget deficits for ever (although you can do it for a long time), because at some point interest payments start to swallow too large a share of the budget. But it’s foolish and destructive to worry about deficits when borrowing is very cheap and the funds you borrow would otherwise go to waste.

At some point you do want to reverse stimulus. But you don’t want to do it too soon – specifically, you don’t want to remove fiscal support as long as pedal-to-the-metal monetary policy is still insufficient. Instead, you want to wait until there can be a sort of handoff, in which the central bank offsets the effects of declining spending and rising taxes by keeping rates low. As John Maynard Keynes wrote in 1937: “The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury.”

All of this is standard macroeconomics.

Hardly "...the same old rubbish".

 

[The perfect fumble]

Dearie me....been reading the Mail have you?

Low pay and zero-hours contracts rise dramatically, figures show

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/13/zero-hours-contracts-low-pay-figures-rise

"New figures have revealed the dramatic spread of low-paid, insecure and casual work across the British economy since the financial crash of 2008."

......................................................

Why can’t Britain create decent jobs?

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/14/why-cant-britain-create-decent-jobs

......................................................

It’s time to give Britain a pay rise and improve our low-wage economy

http://www.jrf.org.uk/blog/2015/02/give-britain-pay-rise

.........................................................

Low pay is one of the key labour market challenges facing the country. One in five in the UK earn below the low pay threshold, much higher than our international competitors

http://www.theworkfoundation.com/Research/Socio-Economic/Labour-Market-Disadvantage/Low-pay-UK

........................................................

UK economy shows shift to low-skilled jobs, research finds

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6a8544ae-9d9e-11e4-8ea3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3aIVwp3bS

The key thing is all those studies spout the same old rubbish, of course the country deserves a pay rise. I worked hard this week, I deserve a pay rise! Of course in an ideal world we would all be on footballers wages and England winning the world cup. The simple fact is fiscal responsibility is paramount for any business and many businesses right now are struggling. Cuts or no cuts, a strong private sector is what makes this country and we cannot ignore that fact, businesses should be encouraged wherever possible to make as much money as possible so that the profits are passed down to those who earnt it.

As usual with these type of studies and arguments from the left, it is an attempt to reinforce the us versus them which really only applies to the biggest companies who of course and rightly do everything for their shareholders. Then again there are hundreds of thousands of small businesses in this country who are struggling and actually in some cases almost exist just to sustain their workforce. Attacking these businesses is wrong and completely dismissive of who is really creating the jobs in this country.

Take your local pub, they might employ 3-5 people on the minimum wage. The minimum wage suggests it is a job no-one needs further skills for and this is right. Increasing the minimum wage by almost 30%, what do you think these pubs will do if their staff costs (the greatest cost) rises by 30%. Of course all they will do is say sorry but we will make do with 3 people instead of 5. This effect would trickle across the country and since we have also banned zero hour contracts too, literally NO-ONE will be able to find unskilled to semi-skilled work. You will see businesses stuck in the mud with spiralling staff costs due to legislation and instead of having high-paying jobs we will have zero jobs, this then inevitably increases the countries welfare costs.

This is why Labour were treated so badly in the business world and it is because Labour treated every single business in this country as a tax-evading right wing, city boy type lunatic. The vast majority of businesses in this country support people from a variety of backgrounds so that they are able to sustain a living and any government has to be pro-business as well as pro-people.

High wages can only be sustained by businesses making as much money as possible and fortunately we have a government now that will at least be as pro-business as possible.

I work with SMEs every day, and I mean every day, I know the environment they operate in.

As for....

businesses should be encouraged wherever possible to make as much money as possible so that the profits are passed down to those who earnt it.

We all want profitable companies, but take a look at how that profit has been divided up since the 80s.....

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/how-can-the-uk-boost-the-wage-share/

"The wage share – wages expressed as a share of total national income – has fallen since the early 1980s, highlighting the decoupling of earnings from output and accounting for a third of the decline in median wages relative to GDP in the UK over the last 35 years."

Which makes....

High wages can only be sustained by businesses making as much money as possible

Only half the equation.

As for labeling my posts as left wing rubbish, grow up, this is basic economics, as the LSE article outlines. Wages as a percentage share of total national income have declined these last thirty five years. In other words as the profits cake has grown the wages slice has not grown at the same rate.

As the article concludes....

" the danger with the current trajectory of falling real wages which the UK economy has slipped into is that, with labour becoming ever cheaper in real terms, the “low road” route becomes more and more attractive to employers as an alternative to capital investment. In effect, falling real wages are a driver for reduced innovation and productivity. In this scenario the UK economy is likely to become increasingly stagnant and any growth that does take place is unlikely to show up in workers’ living standards."

Even Cameron acknowledges this, he knows with an economy so heavily dependant on consumption that squeezing wages screws us all in the end....

David Cameron tells bosses to give workers a pay rise.....

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11402042/David-Cameron-tells-bosses-to-give-workers-a-pay-rise.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... -rise.html</a>

"The Prime Minister will order businesses to give staff a pay rise, claiming that falling costs mean firms have more cash to reward their employees"

In other words he's telling businesses, you've got the cash, stop trousering an ever increasing share of profits and let a bit more flow in wages to your workforce, in other words, can't we have a bit of trickle down?

Now you may not care, you might think the "risk takers" deserve an ever increasing share, that these "wealth creators" deserve as much of the profit as they can take, that workers are simply a factor of cost and every good businessman should bear down on cost as much as they can. That at least would be honest and we could debate it, but dismissing any critique as left wing rubbish and taking this "common sense no nonsense" high ground stance doesn't fool anyone but yourself.

Not everything is black and white you know? I've worked in the private sector all my life, I've a pretty good idea how things work. You don't have to be Arthur Scargill to want higher wages. We both, I hope, want higher productivity, more skilled jobs and more of our people trained to take them.

Where you and I might disagree is how big a slice of the profit cake should be taken in wages, but I refuse to take seriously anyone who thinks that because I support Labour, I clearly must spend all my time in a smoke filled cellar dreaming up nefarious schemes to undermine capitalism.

 

[kas_tippler]

The bleeding heart brigade will be demanding prisoners get the vote next!

 

[Len Rum]

Gideon has got a new phrase for benefit cuts - "reform of welfare in favour of working people".
Talk about using eight words when two will do!

 

[The perfect fumble]

I must say fumble, ever since I requested a source, it's rare that you don't post a link.

Well done.

https://twitter.com/50shadesoftory/status/598918422802669569

50 Shades of Tory

"Will you be fucking me in the bedroom?" she breathed. "No, I'll be fucking you because of it," said IDS, handing her a bedroom tax demand.

Thought we all agreed it wasn't a tax?

It's been renamed the Duvet Tax to make it "Hard working" family friendly.

 

[Bill]

i am only a tiny business but it works the same way. i make a profit we are all happy. make a bigger profit, even if it means cuts , we all benefit. 2 years ago i upped the rate to my fitters, they didn't ask i just upped it as they had be patient and loyal during some pretty shit times under the liars.i was only able to do this with increased profit and cuts elsewhere and with an upturn in business that only the tories ever bring. so my lads, some labour voters i'm sure, are better off under the tories.

 

[whp.blue]

i am only a tiny business but it works the same way. i make a profit we are all happy. make a bigger profit, even if it means cuts , we all benefit. 2 years ago i upped the rate to my fitters, they didn't ask i just upped it as they had be patient and loyal during some pretty shit times under the liars.i was only able to do this with increased profit and cuts elsewhere and with an upturn in business that only the tories ever bring. so my lads, some labour voters i'm sure, are better off under the tories.

I always thought cuts would be a fact of life in your business!

 

[SWP's back]

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11610165/Andy-Burnham-Deficit-was-too-large-when-Labour-was-in-Government.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... nment.html</a>

Andy Burnham admitting the deficit was too large under Labour.

He's also now saying that we need a referendum on the EU.

Bit of a turnaround that.

 

[stonerblue]

I've been up an hour and a half and am on my way to work in a minute. I bet i pay more in tax today than you.

you need to change your accountant mate if you are paying so much tax

My accountant charges £75 January and July for my tax returns, fantastic VFM ;0)

Mine charges fuck all, although she'd be very hard to get rid of seeing as it's the wife..

 

[stonerblue]

Low pay and zero-hours contracts rise dramatically, figures show

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/13/zero-hours-contracts-low-pay-figures-rise

"New figures have revealed the dramatic spread of low-paid, insecure and casual work across the British economy since the financial crash of 2008."

......................................................

Why can’t Britain create decent jobs?

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/14/why-cant-britain-create-decent-jobs

......................................................

It’s time to give Britain a pay rise and improve our low-wage economy

http://www.jrf.org.uk/blog/2015/02/give-britain-pay-rise

.........................................................

Low pay is one of the key labour market challenges facing the country. One in five in the UK earn below the low pay threshold, much higher than our international competitors

http://www.theworkfoundation.com/Research/Socio-Economic/Labour-Market-Disadvantage/Low-pay-UK

........................................................

UK economy shows shift to low-skilled jobs, research finds

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6a8544ae-9d9e-11e4-8ea3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3aIVwp3bS

The key thing is all those studies spout the same old rubbish, of course the country deserves a pay rise. I worked hard this week, I deserve a pay rise! Of course in an ideal world we would all be on footballers wages and England winning the world cup. The simple fact is fiscal responsibility is paramount for any business and many businesses right now are struggling. Cuts or no cuts, a strong private sector is what makes this country and we cannot ignore that fact, businesses should be encouraged wherever possible to make as much money as possible so that the profits are passed down to those who earnt it.

As usual with these type of studies and arguments from the left, it is an attempt to reinforce the us versus them which really only applies to the biggest companies who of course and rightly do everything for their shareholders. Then again there are hundreds of thousands of small businesses in this country who are struggling and actually in some cases almost exist just to sustain their workforce. Attacking these businesses is wrong and completely dismissive of who is really creating the jobs in this country.

Take your local pub, they might employ 3-5 people on the minimum wage. The minimum wage suggests it is a job no-one needs further skills for and this is right. Increasing the minimum wage by almost 30%, what do you think these pubs will do if their staff costs (the greatest cost) rises by 30%. Of course all they will do is say sorry but we will make do with 3 people instead of 5. This effect would trickle across the country and since we have also banned zero hour contracts too, literally NO-ONE will be able to find unskilled to semi-skilled work. You will see businesses stuck in the mud with spiralling staff costs due to legislation and instead of having high-paying jobs we will have zero jobs, this then inevitably increases the countries welfare costs.

This is why Labour were treated so badly in the business world and it is because Labour treated every single business in this country as a tax-evading right wing, city boy type lunatic. The vast majority of businesses in this country support people from a variety of backgrounds so that they are able to sustain a living and any government has to be pro-business as well as pro-people.

High wages can only be sustained by businesses making as much money as possible and fortunately we have a government now that will at least be as pro-business as possible.

I work with SMEs every day, and I mean every day, I know the environment they operate in.

As for....

businesses should be encouraged wherever possible to make as much money as possible so that the profits are passed down to those who earnt it.

We all want profitable companies, but take a look at how that profit has been divided up since the 80s.....

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/how-can-the-uk-boost-the-wage-share/

"The wage share – wages expressed as a share of total national income – has fallen since the early 1980s, highlighting the decoupling of earnings from output and accounting for a third of the decline in median wages relative to GDP in the UK over the last 35 years."

Which makes....

High wages can only be sustained by businesses making as much money as possible

Only half the equation.

As for labeling my posts as left wing rubbish, grow up, this is basic economics, as the LSE article outlines. Wages as a percentage share of total national income have declined these last thirty five years. In other words as the profits cake has grown the wages slice has not grown at the same rate.

As the article concludes....

" the danger with the current trajectory of falling real wages which the UK economy has slipped into is that, with labour becoming ever cheaper in real terms, the “low road” route becomes more and more attractive to employers as an alternative to capital investment. In effect, falling real wages are a driver for reduced innovation and productivity. In this scenario the UK economy is likely to become increasingly stagnant and any growth that does take place is unlikely to show up in workers’ living standards."

Even Cameron acknowledges this, he knows with an economy so heavily dependant on consumption that squeezing wages screws us all in the end....

David Cameron tells bosses to give workers a pay rise.....

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11402042/David-Cameron-tells-bosses-to-give-workers-a-pay-rise.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... -rise.html</a>

"The Prime Minister will order businesses to give staff a pay rise, claiming that falling costs mean firms have more cash to reward their employees"

In other words he's telling businesses, you've got the cash, stop trousering an ever increasing share of profits and let a bit more flow in wages to your workforce, in other words, can't we have a bit of trickle down?

Now you may not care, you might think the "risk takers" deserve an ever increasing share, that these "wealth creators" deserve as much of the profit as they can take, that workers are simply a factor of cost and every good businessman should bear down on cost as much as they can. That at least would be honest and we could debate it, but dismissing any critique as left wing rubbish and taking this "common sense no nonsense" high ground stance doesn't fool anyone but yourself.

Not everything is black and white you know? I've worked in the private sector all my life, I've a pretty good idea how things work. You don't have to be Arthur Scargill to want higher wages. We both, I hope, want higher productivity, more skilled jobs and more of our people trained to take them.

Where you and I might disagree is how big a slice of the profit cake should be taken in wages, but I refuse to take seriously anyone who thinks that because I support Labour, I clearly must spend all my time in a smoke filled cellar dreaming up nefarious schemes to undermine capitalism.

That's a great post fumble.

And i have to say, a round of applause for Cameron there.