The Post General Election Thread

[blumoon]

Cheer up folks it's only 1,824 sleeps until you might get a new Government.

 

[Johnsonontheleft]

Yeah right, it was just me AND THE ENTIRE REST OF THE WORLD INCLUDING THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY who thought that. We're all idiots obviously.

Just admit that you are not always right Damo, that will suffice.

Here's another pearler:

I've been keeping an eye on this as UKIP could have possibly decided the election. It seems that every new UKIP voter, about 1 in 4 come from Labour and 3 in 4 come from the Tories.

The big googly that could be thrown today is if UKIP had a "shy" voting public like the Tories did in 1992 or they had in the recent by-elections. Seosa posted the idea with the backup, but essentially whilst 15% of the popular vote wins them a Bullseye pen and a choc-ice, if you raise that by a few percentage points then it takes them over the line in various marginals and they could take anywhere up to 20 seats.

This of course would guarantee a Labour victory.

The entire world was wrong. As a member of the entire world I was also wrong. It's massively childish that you desire somebody to tell you this and you've bowled a bit of a googly here as I imagine the mods who have been saving you as "not actually a troll or attempting to wind people up" have now got the direct evidence that they requested.

I hope it was worth it for you.

People wind people up on here all the time it's the nature of open and free debate, particularly when it comes to such a crucial and emotive issue as politics.

Although we are clearly poles apart politically I actually agree with you on many things such as religion/science and Pellegrini to name but 2.

I do get riled by politics as the result of elections is so crucial to my family that I work hard to support. I just find you sometimes have a 'know-it-all' attitude which can come across as patronising at times, that is all.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

Watching from afar ....... I dislike politics and never usually argue about it...I have enough on my plate following City and pressing F5 during the transfer windows but a question ...

Now the toffs have another 5 years does this mean more cuts to services for the poor and council jobs ?

1. They are not 'toffs'.
2. There is no fucking money. If you suddenly lose your job, do you continue to shop at Waitrose? No you do fucking not you go to Lidl. So yes there will be cuts which is bad news if you are a benefit scrounger but people who genuinely need help, like disability benefit, will still be helped.

And this, everyone, is why the Tories won. They managed to convince economically illiterate people that the finances of a country are in any way similar to the finances of a household. And how convenient that the solution to this problem just happens to be what the Tories like to do whenever they get in government anyway, which is to cut public services to fund tax cuts for the rich and corporations, and sell of public assets to their rich friends. Except that they were proven so wrong in the first few years of their government, when the economy flatlined, that even they had to concede defeat and put down the knife to help the economic recovery.

I expect a similar thing last time. Loads of "necessary" cuts in the first few years, followed by enough government investment to create an upturn in the economy just before the next election, confirming that the cuts were indeed necessary and we're now seeing the fruits of their tough decisions. It was utter bullshit this time, and it'll be utter bullshit next time. Oh shit, we really need to reduce the debt in this time of historically low interest rates. The government are like someone who sells their house to pay of a debt to the Student Loan Company rather than just waiting until they earn enough money.

 

[JoeMercer'sWay]

1. They are not 'toffs'.
2. There is no fucking money. If you suddenly lose your job, do you continue to shop at Waitrose? No you do fucking not you go to Lidl. So yes there will be cuts which is bad news if you are a benefit scrounger but people who genuinely need help, like disability benefit, will still be helped.

One may ask why after 5 years of a mainly Tory Government which apparently is economically rational and creates businesses and jobs then why this is so.

One may also ask, not unreasonably, where exactly £12bn of welfare cuts are going to come from. If JOTL thinks only "benefit scroungers", as he calls them, will suffer then he is even more deluded than I thought. And that is saying something.

well like I said from the other thread, Cameron said in the Question Time piece that £5bn was coming from tackling tax evasion and avoidance, and cuts wouldn't come from child benefit and tax credits, but it will involve cutting 1 out of every £100 spent for 2 years before a surplus can be reinvested back into public services, and will also involve streamlining government spending and, the bit that will upset the most people, "reforming welfare".

Doesn't explain everything, but it's an indication.

 

[roaminblue]

There is a basic level of funding for civic society breach it you get social chaos (it happened in the 80's and could only be fixed with twice as much spending) that's my concern we are at that basic level now

L'aissez faire would argue otherwise, they would argue that competition would increase the standard of living for everybody, thus pulling the bottom up out of poverty.

Personally, I think information economics plays a much bigger part than most would readily admit.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

And this, everyone, is why the Tories won. They managed to convince economically illiterate people that the finances of a country are in any way similar to the finances of a household (even though the main reason to stay out of the Euro is to control their own money supply, i.e. print their own money when needed for their own economy!)

And how convenient that the solution to this problem just happens to be what the Tories like to do whenever they get in government anyway, which is to cut public services to fund tax cuts for the rich and corporations, and sell off public assets to their rich friends. Except that they were proven so wrong in the first few years of their government, when the economy flatlined, that even they had to concede defeat and put down the knife to help the economic recovery.

I expect a similar thing (this) time. Loads of "necessary" cuts in the first few years, followed by enough government investment to create an upturn in the economy just before the next election, confirming that the cuts were indeed necessary and we're now seeing the fruits of their tough decisions.

It was utter bullshit this time, and it'll be utter bullshit next time. Oh shit, we really need to reduce the debt in this time of historically low interest rates. The government are like someone who sells their house to pay of a debt to the Student Loan Company rather than just waiting until they earn enough money.

I'm with I'm with Stupid!

This is the time to be refinancing the country by floating more long term debt, retiring older more expensive debt, and fixing basic infrastructure on the cheap (cheap money, cheap labor, and cheap and easy politics!). In a global environment, this will not have the usual negative effect of driving inflation, as DEflation is the more pressing global concern.

 

[Wilf Wild 1937]

And no chance of Tories not losing seats, the question is how many they will lose

That awks moment when the cleverest guy on the forum...

Yeah right, it was just me AND THE ENTIRE REST OF THE WORLD INCLUDING THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY who thought that. We're all idiots obviously.

Do you seriously not understand why cuts still have to be made?

Nobody is arguing that cuts have to be made. People are arguing where to make those cuts.

Tell you what, scrap HS2 for £8bn and scrap the Trident replacement for £3bn and add 1p onto the higher rate of income tax for £1bn.

£12bn without touching a single service.

Actually a number of people including myself predicted that the Tories would do a lot better than the polls suggested if you care
to check the other thread. It was always possible that it would turn into a 1992 situation.Personally I thought the exit poll was
about right and the fact that the Tories achieved an overall majority was very much at the top end of my personal expectations.
The Conservative Party itself was split: Cameron feared the worst but Osborne was quite confident all along according to the tv pundits
who had been with him throughout the campaign.

We could scrap Trident but since any government's primary service to it's people is to defend them it doesn't make sense
to say we could cut £3b without touching a single service. Defence and policing are services as well as health and education.

 

[EalingBlue2]

I think it is going to be a very interesting few years and the outcomes could be so radically different that it makes it fascinating. Will it be a more moderate Britain, more united, with a better deal from Europe and on the up in 3 years time or will it be a Britain smashed apart by nationalism and exiting the EU with an uncertain economy mass immigration and emigration and a period of turmoil not Seen since the war - or somewhere in between?

If Cameron is really smart the first thing he will do and do so very publicly is offer Alex salmond the job of Scottish secretary in his cabinet (but in a roll that does not sit in on discussions not effecting Scotland). If he does that there is a 75% chance he says no which instantly shows the nationalists are not as serious about partnership and working for Scotland as they say they are and if he says yes then the Scottish nationalists become part of the solution and can't just sit on the side blaming. It would also cause tensions between two powerful figures in Scottish nationalism as to who is the real leader.

As for the EU if he can and does get a better deal with a Europe who might bend to staying in them he would weaken the right of his party and UKIP seriously and would strengthen the hand of his allies and the centre of politics. I suspect the EU will offer concessions to stay but that any deal if we left would be a lot less than we would hope for as there would be a real bitterness and anti British sentiment if that was the case also I suspect leaving the European Union would inevitably effect the British Union as it would hurt the north and Celtic fringes more.

It will be fascinating to see what happens and it will make a big difference to the stability and prosperity of Britain for generations to come.

 

[EalingBlue2]

Watching from afar ....... I dislike politics and never usually argue about it...I have enough on my plate following City and pressing F5 during the transfer windows but a question ...

Now the toffs have another 5 years does this mean more cuts to services for the poor and council jobs ?

1. They are not 'toffs'.
2. There is no fucking money. If you suddenly lose your job, do you continue to shop at Waitrose? No you do fucking not you go to Lidl. So yes there will be cuts which is bad news if you are a benefit scrounger but people who genuinely need help, like disability benefit, will still be helped.

It isn't a matter of whether you shop at wait rose or lidl is it, the question is more akin to if you have a tough period at work do you fire a huge chunk of your workers and lose experience or do you borrow or save elsewhere short term to keep stability. If debt was really so bad we wouldn't have mortgages or credit cards.

As for benefit scroungers it is the most exaggerated issue and utterly insignificant to GdP or the budget but a favourite of the hard right as it is an easy and great target to pretend it's a massive issue when it just isn't. But as long as people are prepared to fall for it and focus on issue 187 in terms of importance it works.

 

[SWP's back]

I've just had a thought. I listened to Dave earlier on speaking about Scotland. He said something about giving them full fiscal responsibility.

If that's the case, he will take away the Barnett Formula which would play well with England but not the Scots.

When it comes to the next election, Labour wouldn't be able to offer to bring it back (and therebye get their seats back) because no English voter would accept it.

Fucking genius and it accounts for over £5 billion of the £12 billion cuts he promised.


As I said, genius!!

If true you're delighting in the misery of others? great.

Misery of others? How about even distribution of central taxes and fiscal autonomy for those lovely Scots.