The Post General Election Thread

[Rascal]

Plenty of the electorate know there is no need for austerity. Doesn't mean we don't want it.

Justify it then

 

[smudgedj]

For a long but very interesting analysis of austerity read this excellent piece by the eminent economist Paul Krugman.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

The Guardian can do one until it starts paying its tax.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Plenty of the electorate know there is no need for austerity. Doesn't mean we don't want it.

I do think that this reveals a major problem we have in politics these days. The vast majority are very passive displaying the attitude that they believe that whichever way you vote the government gets in as it were. We live in safe seats for one party or another so votes there against the sitting tenant s are meaningless and the number of people just not voting goes up and up. However we still get a winner out of the system ( most times ) and the winners proclaim that the people back them and their views. The opinionated minority tend to be vocal too and they get themselves heard because they are organised for or against the thing they believe in.

Therefore we have in many ways the tail wagging the dog now - the idea expressed here that "we want" austerity. Do we? The Govt want austerity measures be it a dogma or an economic necessity - they won and election and a minority but loud minority back them and egg them on so on Newsnight and the like the impression that comes across is that they have public backing and possibly the minority just shrug and think there's nothing that can be done - thats Govt acting for "the man".

Its like the EU. Cameron has 40 or so "rebels " out of 300 odd MP's - but they shout loudest they say the public are demanding a referendum? Really ? I'd say a minority of about 20% at best do - and some of them want it so they can vote yes to stay in !! I can see no reason why Cameron doesn't do what Tory leaders have failed to do over the issue and nail it for good in the Tory party and grow a pair. In his instance he wants to campaign to get an improvement as he see's it to the EU membership deal for the UK. Call me Dave wants to stay in the EU. So tell your noisy rump to go fuck themselves - he can ask for support from all the other parties - all who want to stay in the EU - to vote with him on any attempt to force the country into an expensive referendum that he - and the majority of the country - don't seem to want. Instead Tory leader after Tory leader has been dogged by Euro -rebels making trouble but quite clearly they don't have anything like the support their noise would suggest - if they did we would have surely had this referendum we all want back in the 80's or 90's?

 

[CityStu]

I do think that this reveals a major problem we have in politics these days. The vast majority are very passive displaying the attitude that they believe that whichever way you vote the government gets in as it were. We live in safe seats for one party or another so votes there against the sitting tenant s are meaningless and the number of people just not voting goes up and up. However we still get a winner out of the system ( most times ) and the winners proclaim that the people back them and their views. The opinionated minority tend to be vocal too and they get themselves heard because they are organised for or against the thing they believe in.

Therefore we have in many ways the tail wagging the dog now - the idea expressed here that "we want" austerity. Do we? The Govt want austerity measures be it a dogma or an economic necessity - they won and election and a minority but loud minority back them and egg them on so on Newsnight and the like the impression that comes across is that they have public backing and possibly the minority just shrug and think there's nothing that can be done - thats Govt acting for "the man".

Its like the EU. Cameron has 40 or so "rebels " out of 300 odd MP's - but they shout loudest they say the public are demanding a referendum? Really ? I'd say a minority of about 20% at best do - and some of them want it so they can vote yes to stay in !! I can see no reason why Cameron doesn't do what Tory leaders have failed to do over the issue and nail it for good in the Tory party and grow a pair. In his instance he wants to campaign to get an improvement as he see's it to the EU membership deal for the UK. Call me Dave wants to stay in the EU. So tell your noisy rump to go fuck themselves - he can ask for support from all the other parties - all who want to stay in the EU - to vote with him on any attempt to force the country into an expensive referendum that he - and the majority of the country - don't seem to want. Instead Tory leader after Tory leader has been dogged by Euro -rebels making trouble but quite clearly they don't have anything like the support their noise would suggest - if they did we would have surely had this referendum we all want back in the 80's or 90's?

Are we really in austerity? We still have a deficit so are still spending more on public services than we are taking in tax. That doesn't seem like austerity.

Could you provide a source for your 20% want a referendum guess? I'd say the best yardstick is the recent general election in which well over half of those that voted, voted for parties offering a referendum as part of their manifesto. Miliband didn't as he thought his opinion more valuable than anyone else's and the public canned him for it.

I personally think you'd be surprised by the amount of regular people that want out of the EU. MPs are generally for it as they have their own agendas and see it as a nice place to 'earn' huge money once they're done with UK politics.

 

[bluethrunthru]

What I would say is we have been told since Maggies "Wets" in the late 80's that the British people want a referendum or the British people want out of the EU - how many general elections since and no party, no group of MP's have felt they have had the backing to stand for an election on a platform that majors on getting out of the EU - except UKIP. Blame it on 1st past the post, personality or whatever you want but even UKIP haven't broken thru and Farage himself cannot carry the electorate in a constituency - I still say if the majority could be arsed to voice their opinion there would be a totally different perspective in British politics - not saying that would be better not saying it would work but I would say on most counts the silent majority fail to make themselves heard - look what power the silent Tory vote wielded the other week when roused off their backsides into a polling booth.

 

[CityStu]

What I would say is we have been told since Maggies "Wets" in the late 80's that the British people want a referendum or the British people want out of the EU - how many general elections since and no party, no group of MP's have felt they have had the backing to stand for an election on a platform that majors on getting out of the EU - except UKIP. Blame it on 1st past the post, personality or whatever you want but even UKIP haven't broken thru and Farage himself cannot carry the electorate in a constituency - I still say if the majority could be arsed to voice their opinion there would be a totally different perspective in British politics - not saying that would be better not saying it would work but I would say on most counts the silent majority fail to make themselves heard - look what power the silent Tory vote wielded the other week when roused off their backsides into a polling booth.

UKIP got 13% of the votes and would probably have had more had the Tories not pulled many in through fear of the SNP getting a big say in parliament. That's at least 4m votes off the bat to leave the EU. Constituencies also don't apply in a referendum and Farage faced an awful lot of ganging up against him in his seat with lots of Tory and Labour campaign money spent there. UKIP actually control the local council there.

My point is, how do you know what opinion the silent majority have if they are silent? The recent election has shown that they are more right leaning and the EU has an awful lot of problems. Immigration is an issue for a lot of voters, TTIP isn't wanted by anybody and the way the EU is run is completely undemocratic.

 

[bluethrunthru]

I think that personal views on staying in / coming out of the EU and the point I am trying to make.

Clearly the silent majority are silent hence they would be hard for me to pin down with a specific answer to that point. However - using your figs thats 87% against a vote if we are just crudely counting in that way. Some of that 13% may well want to stay in Europe but want border controls for example.

The point was - and Europe has kind of subsumed the austerity part of the argument - if there was a large vocal MAJORITY for a vote on Europe and whether to stay in or come out - not withstanding any second guessing the outcome - the Politicians who lets face always have one eye on the main chance would have campaigned vociferously on it and we must not forget that although the Tories have beat themselves up with this Labour is divided too, then there would have been a referendum by now.

My anecdotal evidence through personal experience - limited though that is - linked with the absence of a vote until now is to me an indicator that the Politicians know full well that there are those shouting about a referendum from both the in and out camps but that these people are in the minority and to hold one would just be divisive and distracting as well as costly. Cameron only made the pledge as he felt backed into a corner - his political instincts and advisers are poor look at the thing today where he is correcting himself yet again about what he did or didn't say about supporting him. Mark my words the first chance he gets to drop the pledge on a technicality he will give it a go - he is on record saying he wants to stay in as he thinks the effect of withdrawal would be damaging and he doesn't want to be proved right as his lasting epitaph on his premiership.

 

[CityStu]

I think that personal views on staying in / coming out of the EU and the point I am trying to make.

Clearly the silent majority are silent hence they would be hard for me to pin down with a specific answer to that point. However - using your figs thats 87% against a vote if we are just crudely counting in that way. Some of that 13% may well want to stay in Europe but want border controls for example.

The point was - and Europe has kind of subsumed the austerity part of the argument - if there was a large vocal MAJORITY for a vote on Europe and whether to stay in or come out - not withstanding any second guessing the outcome - the Politicians who lets face always have one eye on the main chance would have campaigned vociferously on it and we must not forget that although the Tories have beat themselves up with this Labour is divided too, then there would have been a referendum by now.

My anecdotal evidence through personal experience - limited though that is - linked with the absence of a vote until now is to me an indicator that the Politicians know full well that there are those shouting about a referendum from both the in and out camps but that these people are in the minority and to hold one would just be divisive and distracting as well as costly. Cameron only made the pledge as he felt backed into a corner - his political instincts and advisers are poor look at the thing today where he is correcting himself yet again about what he did or didn't say about supporting him. Mark my words the first chance he gets to drop the pledge on a technicality he will give it a go - he is on record saying he wants to stay in as he thinks the effect of withdrawal would be damaging and he doesn't want to be proved right as his lasting epitaph on his premiership.

87% aren't against a vote. The Tories and Greens were also offering a referendum in their manifestos so it's an issue that 53.3% of the electorate voted for. Not all of those will be in favour of leaving, but I doubt every single other party voter (Labour, Lib, SNP) will vote to stay in.

You don't think UKIP campaigned vociferously on the EU issue? It worked as well - whilst they may not have won seats due to the FPTP system, they had the third highest vote share at the general election. There's also the point that politicians themselves are going to be more pro-EU than the voters they represent because they see it as a chance to get on the gravy train themselves in the future.

Cameron's warning to ministers wasn't a good PR move at all. And the electorate will crucify him if he doesn't have a referendum.

 

[kas_tippler]

Austerity this austerity that, how would you lefties gone on after the war?! Mind you if we'd had a Labour PM during WW2 we'd be all speaking German now.

 

[SWP's back]

Who is the 'we' in this?

The electorate.