The Scottish Politics thread

[Saddleworth2]

The way this debate develops on here is really quite weird - it seems a sort of phony war to me - because there does not appear to be any posters declaring a view of any sort that Scotland should not have the right to self-determine if they should remain part of the UK.

Anyway - Scottish Politics...............

Setting aside my personal view that when the next vote happens there will be a clear majority to remain within the UK - I would give the SNP a lot of credit for actions that they have taken in recent years to enable a separation to happen should the vote go that way.

We have seen issues that can arise from a single nation separating from a Union after 40+ years due to the development of common policies, systems and processes - well, logically, such a separation would be much harder in a Scotland/UK scenario - especially if there was anything less than whole-hearted support from the UK.

Go back to 2014 and contemplate what would have happened during the years following a 'YES' vote. People comment on matters such as Sterling, border issues, etc. - but an example of a more basic issue would have been that Scotland would have been wholly dependent on UK government departments for support of core processes and systems - the obvious example being DWP for the payments of benefits etc. They would have been paying whatever the UK charged for such support for a decade or more.

SG have quietly got on and embarked on some major programmes/projects to address such dependencies - and the establishment of Social Security Scotland and the managed transfer of benefits has been a really good example of what can be achieved if transition management is committed to with strategic planning, resourcing and funding.

That programme has already reached a stage where if the vote was to be YES in 2022/3 then they can be fully decoupled from DWP.

As an aside - having witnessed the approach and policies of Social Security Scotland on a wide range of benefits, I see there to be such a marked difference between theirs and the UK's.

The emphasis of SSS is so much more claimant centric and supporting of claimants - rather than the DWP's drive to reduce and decline payments. I would consider their approach to be consistent with the principles of all Labour supporters on here - far more care and empathy shown to claimants.

There are a lot more examples that SG are driving forward on that would make separation 'doable' - including within Revenue Scotland - but what has been achieved in Social Security I think deserves massive credit.

Good post mate.

Very reasonable and balanced. That is very interesting point that they are in transition planning. The SG paper recommended that it should but it looks like some of this stuff is happening under the covers.
Have you any insight about the financial side - they were talking about a Scottish central bank and other financial governance bodies - any clandestine work on that?
I still think their currency plan is very flaky and they will certainly need to polish that into something believable.

 

[Saddleworth2]

We could get all the loyalists out of NI and dump them in Scotland and then get the Scottish nats out of Scotland and dump them in NI.

Make Ireland unified and crack on.

Problem solved ;-)

thank god you are joking. you are joking aren't you?

 

[Octavian]

thank god you are joking. you are joking aren't you?

Yes of course I am.

Altho I’d send you to the other side of the world ;-)

 

[Saddleworth2]

Yes of course I am.

Altho I’d send you to the other side of the world ;-)

That wouldn't be far enough away mate ;-)

 

[Saddleworth2]

I can relate to that.
Hard to explain to anyone in the UK perhaps, but currently down south, a vote for Sinn Fein is not necessarily a Nationalist vote.
The younger generation are the ones putting them in and any of them I’ve spoken to,don’t give a damn whether NI is part of a 32 county Republic or not.
My own son is now 19. He has a vote in the next election and he has more important issues to him.
He’d have no hang ups about voting for them, unlike myself.

It’s quite simple. Scots are, in the main, socialist leaning these days so the centre left policies of the SNP are relatively attractive. If you add NS’s popularity and competence than that’s why people vote for her. Does the country trust her more than Scottish Labour, yes it does.
I have no idea how many SNP voters would vote for independence though, the polls are still pretty indecisive.

 

[west didsblue]

.

It’s quite simple. Scots are, in the main, socialist leaning these days so the centre left policies of the SNP are relatively attractive. If you add NS’s popularity and competence than that’s why people vote for her. Does the country trust her more than Scottish Labour, yes it does.
I have no idea how many SNP voters would vote for independence though, the polls are still pretty indecisive.

A continuing Johnson government or one led by someone similar would almost guarantee it. If Labour wins the next election prior to a vote it’s anyone’s guess which way it would go.

 

[Oldham Exile]

Good post mate.

Very reasonable and balanced. That is very interesting point that they are in transition planning. The SG paper recommended that it should but it looks like some of this stuff is happening under the covers.
Have you any insight about the financial side - they were talking about a Scottish central bank and other financial governance bodies - any clandestine work on that?
I still think their currency plan is very flaky and they will certainly need to polish that into something believable.

I think that any 'currency plan' is still only at the stage of 'planning assumptions' at the moment.

That makes sense really - and I would expect that any movement will only really kick in once they have a agreement to hold/a date for a referendum.

I think that the 'preferred option' is certainly continued use of Sterling until accession to the EU.

They appointed a 'man in Brussels late in 2014 following the vote and he will have been sounding out the prospects for the adoption of the Euro - and more generally conditions for accession. I consider that in itself to have been a good example of 'preparing' the path following the last vote - the individual will have gone down a storm in Brussels.

SG have appointed a new Finance Secretary and she is very assertive in sorting out a whole host of key issues - but there is enough to do on sorting out multiple legacy systems - payroll and payments - that cause many issues in the coming months/year or 2.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I think that any 'currency plan' is still only at the stage of 'planning assumptions' at the moment.

That makes sense really - and I would expect that any movement will only really kick in once they have a agreement to hold/a date for a referendum.

I think that the 'preferred option' is certainly continued use of Sterling until accession to the EU.

They appointed a 'man in Brussels late in 2014 following the vote and he will have been sounding out the prospects for the adoption of the Euro - and more generally conditions for accession. I consider that in itself to have been a good example of 'preparing' the path following the last vote - the individual will have gone down a storm in Brussels.

SG have appointed a new Finance Secretary and she is very assertive in sorting out a whole host of key issues - but there is enough to do on sorting out multiple legacy systems - payroll and payments - that cause many issues in the coming months/year or 2.

The SGC report advocated a transition period retaining £sterling and BofE as central bank. That seemed sensible as it bought time to determine a future within Europe albeit it constrained the independent Scotland fiscal strategy. That was overturned at a party conference in favour of a 'Scottish pound' a new currency. Now wether that survives once things become serious I kind of doubt as whatever is proposed it has to be credible. Lessons should have been learned and I was heartened by your comments about robust transition planning.

It will take more strength in depth than Kate Forbes, capable though she is. An army of capable people will be needed to do this properly.

 

[Oldham Exile]

..............It will take more strength in depth than Kate Forbes, capable though she is. An army of capable people will be needed to do this properly.

I mentioned the fella sent to be Scotland's 'man in Brussels' - which reflected strategic planning and there has been a lot of initiatives that have seen SG become more experienced and capable of planning and managing major programmes.

There are a lot of very capable people about and they are increasingly identified and brigaded in a way that means that they can be extracted and deployed should a 2nd Indyref be secured.

The response to Covid has been a good test of this - with 'top resources' at all levels identified and extracted from their 'day jobs' - the approach would be the same once an Indyref was confirmed.

I think that the best chance of securing a 2nd vote lies in the SNP keeping all its gains at the next GE and Labour doing sufficiently well across England (as well as at least holding their position in Wales) to achieve a point where a coalition would get the Tories out. The price of SNP support would be a 2nd Indyref.

Anyway - setting aside that I still think that it will be a 'NO' vote - my point is that Scotland is far more ready and able to manage such a transition than they were in 2014.

 

[Coatigan]

I live in the North of Scotland and I think the biggest problem the SNP have is they don't have many talented people in Holyrood after Elsie Mac selfie leaves. They have someone that studied history running the finances and the fact that they have a dentist in charge of vivid sums them up.

Interesting. We shall see with time.

On the face of it, you may have a bit of a point. It might be well beyond that, it is almost self sustaining now, and might not matter.

Or, you may just not be seeing it, for any number of reasons.

When a 20 year old Mhairi Black took the long held Labour seat off Douglas Alexander, I remember thinking, man folk will vote anyone in as long as they are SNP. Turns out, she is actually pretty damn good, and has been consistent. It can be premature, judging 'talent' of background players.

There are a fair few to choose from, some prominent and well spoken, some loudmouthed and attention seaking, some quiet and clever. With the levels of support they have now, hardly going to come down to individual popularity, I would guess.