The Scottish Politics thread

[Saddleworth2]

Obviously.
Not too sure about playing in the SPL though!

Na. Caledonian Super League.

 

[Gabriel]

Brexit will not be reversed so the Scots will always see their reluctant extraction from the EU as another form of Westminster punishment, and the longer the U.K. suffers economically, the greater that sense of grievance will become. In turn, as the desire for independence strengthens, the more Westminster will resist, not because they oppose the democratic right to self-determination but because they know that Independence will only intensify the economic damage wrought by Brexit. What a knot.

 

[metalblue]

The question is, what will make those waverers that voted No last time swith to Yes. Brexit is the biggest single change, but it's Johsons ERG , idealogical version of brexit that will drive it. That's unlikely to change befor October 23. Johnson himself may influence a few, but think a bigger driver is there are no outstanding candidates to succeed him that will appeal to those still wavering.
People talk about the SNP / Sturgeon and independence , but that isn't what will drive a Yes vote, it will be the current government and it's policies, especially it's Brexit policies.

It sounds like the a bit like, what’s the word, Screxit? Tacking back control, leaving a Union with your biggest trading partner, creating barriers to trade. I get the logic and it all sounds a little familiar, folk leave relationships all the time because they want their space, their bored, the grass is greener. There doesn’t seem to be much of a plan here from the SNP beyond actually leaving and so the rationale is inherently weak.

It’s also surely unlikely many countries would recognise an self declared independent Scotland if it fails in the courts to get legal backing for a referendum irrespective of what the SNP think a election victory mandates them to have. The EU won’t as it breaks their legal frame work even if privately the UK lurching from constitutional crisis to constitutional crisis amuses them. Particularly as Scotland was granted a referendum and choose to stay so arguments of self determination become harder to justify.

 

[metalblue]

Like you say, Brexit is the obvious one. One of the main factors that influenced the Remain vote in 2014 was that independence meant leaving the EU, and remaining in the UK was supposed to be the only guaranteed way of staying in the EU. Then two years later that went to shit in spite of 62% of Scots voting to remain in the EU. Ergo the Remain voters in 2014 who were convinced by the EU argument are going to be much more likely to vote the other way. Johnson is a temporary aberration but even if he's replaced soon by someone who isn't a fuckwit and who values the union, no one is promising a path to re-joining any time soon anyway. I was strongly pro-union in 2014 and was very relieved when the Scots voted to stay in the UK but if I was Scottish I would probably vote to leave the UK if there was a vote in the near future. In fact if there was an option for the North West of England to join Scotland as an independent country I'd seriously consider voting for that, and that's something I never would have even thought of in the past.

How do you reconcile that though with voting remain with the EU? Scotland would leave a customs Union with its biggest trading partner… oh new maybe trade deals? It’s really all very familiar and easy to say, much harder to deliver.

Anyway isn’t Brexit just a convenient excuse for the SNP? I seem to recall the SNP demanding another independence referendum in return for supporting a Westminster vote on a second Brexit referendum which kinda of says the “oh Brexit has made it all change we voted remain” line is … what’s the word? Ah yes, bullshit.

 

[blueparrot]

It sounds like the a bit like, what’s the word, Screxit? Tacking back control, leaving a Union with your biggest trading partner, creating barriers to trade. I get the logic and it all sounds a little familiar, folk leave relationships all the time because they want their space, their bored, the grass is greener. There doesn’t seem to be much of a plan here from the SNP beyond actually leaving and so the rationale is inherently weak.

It’s also surely unlikely many countries would recognise an self declared independent Scotland if it fails in the courts to get legal backing for a referendum irrespective of what the SNP think a election victory mandates them to have. The EU won’t as it breaks their legal frame work even if privately the UK lurching from constitutional crisis to constitutional crisis amuses them. Particularly as Scotland was granted a referendum and choose to stay so arguments of self determination become harder to justify.

There is a plan, and the original plan was published in a lot more detail than Brexit ever was, or has been since. Of course the original plan was dependent on remaining in the EU, and failed because there wasn't clarity. The one thing the SNP know for sure they will need clarity on their position from the EU to have any chance of winning a Yes vote, and that will be a lynch pin of any plan, along with clear details on currency.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I'm not sure it was clear enough what I meant. I think if Scottish independence goes ahead that there is greater likelyhood of a united Ireland with Scotland and Ireland part of the EU. Without Scotland there is no such thing as a United Kingdom and I genuinely cannot foresee why the good people of NI would think that the status quo is best for them.
My only reference to the GFA was in relation to the risks that the tories are trying to take with the Northern Ireland protocol bill. Not for here but worth a discussion over on the Irish politics thread.

I think it’s me who didn’t explain myself properly.
My reference to the GFA is that whatever the solution is eventually, it safeguards the rights of the unionist community to remain part of the UK.

As you say however, if the UK doesn’t exist, who knows what comes next.

 

[west didsblue]

How do you reconcile that though with voting remain with the EU? Scotland would leave a customs Union with its biggest trading partner… oh new maybe trade deals? It’s really all very familiar and easy to say, much harder to deliver.

Anyway isn’t Brexit just a convenient excuse for the SNP? I seem to recall the SNP demanding another independence referendum in return for supporting a Westminster vote on a second Brexit referendum which kinda of says the “oh Brexit has made it all change we voted remain” line is … what’s the word? Ah yes, bullshit.

I suppose it’s the same as the pro Brexit argument which was there’s a whole world out there to trade with.

The difference with SCEXIT is they want to leave a single market of 60 million consumers to join a single market of 400 million that are only just across the North Sea rather than half way round the world. And if trade with England is down by 20% they probably have a better chance of making that up with the EU than we have with the rest of the world.

Yes Brexit is a great excuse for the SNP and it makes their aims much more achievable. They will obviously latch on to any situation to push their cause. Without Brexit they’d be more focussed on securing more powers for Holyrood rather than going all out for independence.

I said during the Brexit discussions a few years ago that a vote to leave the EU would likely bring about the break up of the UK and I’ve seen nothing since to change my view. It’s very unfortunate because I’m a unionist but that’s the way it’s going imo.

 

[Coatigan]

What a knot.

I cannot..

 

[Coatigan]

I think it’s me who didn’t explain myself properly.
My reference to the GFA is that whatever the solution is eventually, it safeguards the rights of the unionist community to remain part of the UK.

As you say however, if the UK doesn’t exist, who knows what comes next.

The way things are going, it is not unthinkable that Ireland will get 'there', before Scotland does.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

The way things are going, it is not unthinkable that Ireland will get 'there', before Scotland does.

Not sure what you mean by get there.
Whatever a United Ireland would look like in the future, I and many people I know envisaged that it would perhaps have some sort of dual citizenship. That in itself would be very complicated and that assumed that The UK was an EU member.
If as a result of Brexit, the UK breaks up, I have no idea what a question on a United Ireland referendum would be never mind what the answer would be if it was accepted.