The Scottish Politics thread

Saddleworth2 said:
what she says she will do if the Supreme Court says no, is run in the next G election on a single policy. Independence. I would assume the Scottish Greens will do the same. If they win that in Scotland they will use it as a legal mandate. To be honest she has been quite cute in how she has pitched this and I think Johnson is faced with a lose,lose scenario. The major risk she runs is the polling in Scotland is still very close. She will be hoping that her campaign can sway the undecided and if Johnson continues being an arrogant **** (as if thats a question) that he will push voters her way too.
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Would you agree that they’d need to poll over 50% of the vote to use that vote as a mandate?
 
Saddleworth2 said:
My critical faculties.
What makes you think it isn't?
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I didn’t say it wasn’t. Just interested in the why you think it is and what that would mean for the Indy ref.

I heard a couple on QT last night saying they would vote to leave the union because of Boris Johnson - which is a bit of a weak knee jerk reason given it’s hard to see him being PM after/before next GE. Brexit is the other obvious one. Or?
 
metalblue said:
I didn’t say it wasn’t. Just interested in the why you think it is and what that would mean for the Indy ref.

I heard a couple on QT last night saying they would vote to leave the union because of Boris Johnson - which is a bit of a weak knee jerk reason given it’s hard to see him being PM after/before next GE. Brexit is the other obvious one. Or?
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The question is, what will make those waverers that voted No last time swith to Yes. Brexit is the biggest single change, but it's Johsons ERG , idealogical version of brexit that will drive it. That's unlikely to change befor October 23. Johnson himself may influence a few, but think a bigger driver is there are no outstanding candidates to succeed him that will appeal to those still wavering.
People talk about the SNP / Sturgeon and independence , but that isn't what will drive a Yes vote, it will be the current government and it's policies, especially it's Brexit policies.
 
metalblue said:
I didn’t say it wasn’t. Just interested in the why you think it is and what that would mean for the Indy ref.

I heard a couple on QT last night saying they would vote to leave the union because of Boris Johnson - which is a bit of a weak knee jerk reason given it’s hard to see him being PM after/before next GE. Brexit is the other obvious one. Or?
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Whilst Johnson is the worst, Scotland has rejected the Tories for well over 50 years. There is no guarantee that we won’t get someone even more right wing next time either.
Brexit shook many Scots including myself that had previously leaned towards retention of the Uk.

So you asked why a car crash:
We have the slowest growing economy in Europe
We have a Westminster government who are normalising lying in office, Are corrupt and are morally and intellectually bereft.
Our foreign policy to asylum seekers seems to be designed round skin colour.
The NHS and welfare state is as close to collapse/ being sold off than it has ever been.
There seems to be nobody who is adult enough to state the obvious. Gravity will pull us back to at least the SM. We cannot continue to make it difficult to trade with our nearest neighbours.

So when considering independence, it’s no longer just an assessment of what will a likely difficult independent future look like. It is what does a future within the Uk look like as a comparison. At present it looks like a car crash.
 
metalblue said:
I didn’t say it wasn’t. Just interested in the why you think it is and what that would mean for the Indy ref.

I heard a couple on QT last night saying they would vote to leave the union because of Boris Johnson - which is a bit of a weak knee jerk reason given it’s hard to see him being PM after/before next GE. Brexit is the other obvious one. Or?
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Like you say, Brexit is the obvious one. One of the main factors that influenced the Remain vote in 2014 was that independence meant leaving the EU, and remaining in the UK was supposed to be the only guaranteed way of staying in the EU. Then two years later that went to shit in spite of 62% of Scots voting to remain in the EU. Ergo the Remain voters in 2014 who were convinced by the EU argument are going to be much more likely to vote the other way. Johnson is a temporary aberration but even if he's replaced soon by someone who isn't a fuckwit and who values the union, no one is promising a path to re-joining any time soon anyway. I was strongly pro-union in 2014 and was very relieved when the Scots voted to stay in the UK but if I was Scottish I would probably vote to leave the UK if there was a vote in the near future. In fact if there was an option for the North West of England to join Scotland as an independent country I'd seriously consider voting for that, and that's something I never would have even thought of in the past.
 
west didsblue said:
Like you say, Brexit is the obvious one. One of the main factors that influenced the Remain vote in 2014 was that independence meant leaving the EU, and remaining in the UK was supposed to be the only guaranteed way of staying in the EU. Then two years later that went to shit in spite of 62% of Scots voting to remain in the EU. Ergo the Remain voters in 2014 who were convinced by the EU argument are going to be much more likely to vote the other way. Johnson is a temporary aberration but even if he's replaced soon by someone who isn't a fuckwit and who values the union, no one is promising a path to re-joining any time soon anyway. I was strongly pro-union in 2014 and was very relieved when the Scots voted to stay in the UK but if I was Scottish I would probably vote to leave the UK if there was a vote in the near future. In fact if there was an option for the North West of England to join Scotland as an independent country I'd seriously consider voting for that, and that's something I never would have even thought of in the past.
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Capital city would be Manchester naturally ;-)
 
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