The Scottish Politics thread

[blueparrot]

You could well be totally right about him. But I would doubt that would push back independence as a 'movement'. I just don't think that is how it works, in the same way it wouldn't have been pushed forward with a more capable or charismatic leader.

If he were in charge of a Brexit party, would it have put you off the desire for Brexit? Farage, Gove, Mogg etc didn't put people off that, nor Salmond in first indyref, so why might someone as insignificant as him have that effect. Unless I have misunderstood your point.

Independence is imo probably stuck at a stalemate point, with no meaningful swings in either direction for the forseeable future, while remaining the prime topic most of that time.

I think independence was stuck even with Sturgeon, I don't think whoever won were going to shift it in the next 6 years at least. So for me it's back to voting SNP for the same reasons I did when I voted No first time round, they were the best centre left party.
So with that in mind I think I'm better off with Yousaf. but I'm very much in a wait and see mode rather than jump to any conclusions.

 

[blueinsa]

You could well be totally right about him. But I would doubt that would push back independence as a 'movement'. I just don't think that is how it works, in the same way it wouldn't have been pushed forward with a more capable or charismatic leader.

If he were in charge of a Brexit party, would it have put you off the desire for Brexit? Farage, Gove, Mogg etc didn't put people off that, nor Salmond in first indyref, so why might someone as insignificant as him have that effect. Unless I have misunderstood your point.

Independence is imo probably stuck at a stalemate point, with no meaningful swings in either direction for the forseeable future, while remaining the prime topic most of that time.

It pushes it back because he loses public support.

We have seen public support for Independence fall over the last 12 months and it will fall further under this guy I will wager.

 

[Coatigan]

I think independence was stuck even with Sturgeon, I don't think whoever won were going to shift it in the next 6 years at least. So for me it's back to voting SNP for the same reasons I did when I voted No first time round, they were the best centre left party.
So with that in mind I think I'm better off with Yousaf. but I'm very much in a wait and see mode rather than jump to any conclusions.

This. I don't expect much to change any time soon.

Those that vote SNP for their independence convictions will continue to do so no matter who is in charge. Those that don't want independence, are undecided, or not bothered either way, but vote SNP for their policies, will most likely still do so. Some might have a rethink if the apparent capability of the party and leadership dips, but until there is a credible alternative, which is a long long way away, those won't be significant numbers. Even a big dip would still see them as the biggest party and part of some coalition or other, so the government won't really change, and that is some 4 years away regardless.

And all the while independence will remain as it is, a constant big topic but without any real endgame either way.

What it might affect is the feeling amongst those that don't vote SNP, but were happy enough with Nicola as FM. If he can't sustain that, which is almost certain, then there will be a scramble to turn that mood into votes.

 

[Coatigan]

It pushes it back because he loses public support.

We have seen public support for Independence fall over the last 12 months and it will fall further under this guy I will wager.

I see what you mean. I don't think public support hinges on it, and will always sway within a certain top margin percentage.

I don't think there was that much of a 'gain' to fall, and I don't think it will fall below where it was at the end of the last indyref. Hence my point, it isn't really being pushed back because it never really went anywhere.

At the end of the day, I couldn't really give a fuck about it and whether public support is 52% 50% or 45%. What I'm more keen on is how the country is governed in the meantine, and that we can probably all agree is going to look shaky just now.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I’m always keen to get a handle on Scottish affairs, especially in these weird unchartered grounds of Brexit.
Brexit has shown to us in Ireland that we are still greatly affected by what you muppets, sorry, I mean your government get up to and particularly how they stumble through NI policy.

Can I ask, does anyone know what the age breakdown is of those that vote SNP/Lab/Con in Scotland.
How do the youth view Scottish independence?

Although very different in most ways we have what may be a similar scenario in the Republic regarding the youth vote, who see Sinn Fein as the only viable alternative to FF or FG.

 

[blueparrot]

I’m always keen to get a handle on Scottish affairs, especially in these weird unchartered grounds of Brexit.
Brexit has shown to us in Ireland that we are still greatly affected by what you muppets, sorry, I mean your government get up to and particularly how they stumble through NI policy.

Can I ask, does anyone know what the age breakdown is of those that vote SNP/Lab/Con in Scotland.
How do the youth view Scottish independence?

Although very different in most ways we have what may be a similar scenario in the Republic regarding the youth vote, who see Sinn Fein as the only viable alternative to FF or FG.

Women and younger people backed SNP in 2021 election, top pollster says

MORE women and younger people backed the SNP in the Scottish Parliamentary 2021 election than in 2016, a top pollster has said.

www.thenational.scot

Seems there is a shift with younger voters towards SNP, whether that corresponds to support for independence I wouldn't know but would expect so.

 

[blueinsa]

I see what you mean. I don't think public support hinges on it, and will always sway within a certain top margin percentage.

I don't think there was that much of a 'gain' to fall, and I don't think it will fall below where it was at the end of the last indyref. Hence my point, it isn't really being pushed back because it never really went anywhere.

At the end of the day, I couldn't really give a fuck about it and whether public support is 52% 50% or 45%. What I'm more keen on is how the country is governed in the meantine, and that we can probably all agree is going to look shaky just now.

Of course it hinges on it because it will go to another referendum mate.

 

[blueparrot]

Of course it hinges on it because it will go to another referendum mate.

Not anytime soon though.

 

[Magicpole]

I’m always keen to get a handle on Scottish affairs, especially in these weird unchartered grounds of Brexit.
Brexit has shown to us in Ireland that we are still greatly affected by what you muppets, sorry, I mean your government get up to and particularly how they stumble through NI policy.

Can I ask, does anyone know what the age breakdown is of those that vote SNP/Lab/Con in Scotland.
How do the youth view Scottish independence?

Although very different in most ways we have what may be a similar scenario in the Republic regarding the youth vote, who see Sinn Fein as the only viable alternative to FF or FG.

Every age group apart from 65+ voted in a majority for Indy with the highest % coming from the 16-35 age group.

Everyone knows it’s about Indy and not who leads, although thst us important it’s not the issue. I was pissing myself at all the Uber Unionist/Loyalists rejoicing when Sturgeon stood down. A person they all claimed was hopeless. She wasn’t, but they have very fixed views and if it isn’t wrapped in a UJ they go mental.

Time will tell as always.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Women and younger people backed SNP in 2021 election, top pollster says

MORE women and younger people backed the SNP in the Scottish Parliamentary 2021 election than in 2016, a top pollster has said.

www.thenational.scot

Seems there is a shift with younger voters towards SNP, whether that corresponds to support for independence I wouldn't know but would expect so.

That’s an interesting read BP. Thanks for that.
It seems 16-17 year olds were allowed vote in the 2021 constituency elections and they greatly flocked towards the SNP.

It would seem whoever can keep the under 55yo vote going forward, may hold the future of Scotland in their hands.

It’s time for young fella’s like Sadds, Magic and yourself to step forward.