The Title Race - 2021/22

[Deleted member 81382]

We have 9 games before we play Liverpool and then 6 games after that match. I would like us to win the PL when we play them. Go in to the game with a 15 point lead and then teach them a footballing lesson to leave us 18 points clear. Lovely.

We'd need to have a 16 point lead going in to that game to win the title on the day.

 

[Alfie Budd]

We'd need to have a 16 point lead going in to that game to win the title on the day.

It may be more than that depending on when the dippers end up playing the two games they need to find new dates for.

 

[BillyShears]

I'd love to see it, but I think we'll drop more than 4 points in 16 games. However, if we're down to 7 or 8 games, still with that 4 point margin of error, then it's definitely on.

If we can get to Liverpool with all wins I'll start believing. We'd have to navigate United/Spurs and Palace away in that run, but it's doable.

 

[JCB001]

If Chelsea and the Cult both reach the final as we take a year off from our annual our sweet sweet Carabao, then that’s another game for them kicked down the road to the business end of the season.
Weirdly I can’t seem to find who they are scheduled to play in the league that weekend

Liverpool scheduled to play Arsenal on the Saturday

 

[Musampa 209]

Imagine the stench if two Pep teams reached 100 points

 

[Deleted member 81382]

If we can get to Liverpool with all wins I'll start believing. We'd have to navigate United/Spurs and Palace away in that run, but it's doable.

If we did that, we'd be on a run of 21 straight league wins. We did actually win 21 games in a row last season although that was across all competitions.

A lot harder to do it just in the Premier League but you wouldn't put it past a team that's already won 14, 15 and 18 league games in a row under Pep.

 

[alexmcity]

If we can get to Liverpool with all wins I'll start believing. We'd have to navigate United/Spurs and Palace away in that run, but it's doable.

We'd have to navigate any single game because shit (in the form of deflections, wonder goals, refereeing mistakes, red cards, injuries, etc.) can happen in every game. We can't predict in advance where we could drop points. If we were told before the season that we'll have dropped 10 pts after 22 games, absolutely nobody would have guessed back then that 5 of those 10 points were going to be dropped vs Southampton and Palace of all teams, and at home at that.

How difficult is to win all games before Liverpool? Well, we can calculate the probability by giving us 90% chance to win every game before Liverpool (that's probably quite optimistic, but that's part of the point). Then the chance that we win all these games is less than 40%, and that's on the condition we will be (nearly) full strength in all games, otherwise the chance to win drops from 90% to say 70%. So, even if everything is fine wrt Covid, injuries, personal problems..., the chance that we win every game before Liverpool is less than 40%, and realistically closer to 20 %.

I'm a huge fan of this team (think it's potentially the best City team), but the dream of having another Centurion season is unrealistic, imo, and unnecessary as well. The players and the manager would rather win the league with only 85 pts AND win the CL than win the league with 104 pts and fail in the CL. This team needs success in Europe to make further progress, new domestic records would be great, but I guess that's not the aim this season.

 

[LongsightM13]

Liverpool scheduled to play Arsenal on the Saturday

Cheers the BBC didn’t list any fixtures for either of them that weekend

 

[Partington_blue]

Cheers the BBC didn’t list any fixtures for either of them that weekend

That’s correct, as it’s already been postponed. They play each other in the Semi final, so at least one of them will be in the final, meaning the League game is postponed.

Great for us. Just keep racking up the points. They’ll be trying to fit league games here, there and everywhere.

 

[BillyShears]

We'd have to navigate any single game because shit (in the form of deflections, wonder goals, refereeing mistakes, red cards, injuries, etc.) can happen in every game. We can't predict in advance where we could drop points. If we were told before the season that we'll have dropped 10 pts after 22 games, absolutely nobody would have guessed back then that 5 of those 10 points were going to be dropped vs Southampton and Palace of all teams, and at home at that.

How difficult is to win all games before Liverpool? Well, we can calculate the probability by giving us 90% chance to win every game before Liverpool (that's probably quite optimistic, but that's part of the point). Then the chance that we win all these games is less than 40%, and that's on the condition we will be (nearly) full strength in all games, otherwise the chance to win drops from 90% to say 70%. So, even if everything is fine wrt Covid, injuries, personal problems..., the chance that we win every game before Liverpool is less than 40%, and realistically closer to 20 %.

I'm a huge fan of this team (think it's potentially the best City team), but the dream of having another Centurion season is unrealistic, imo, and unnecessary as well. The players and the manager would rather win the league with only 85 pts AND win the CL than win the league with 104 pts and fail in the CL. This team needs success in Europe to make further progress, new domestic records would be great, but I guess that's not the aim this season.

I'll bet you're a laugh at parties ;)

I'll believe this team can do it until they physically can't because they've dropped too many points. On your last point about needing "progress" in Europe - we've done what we need to do. We've been to a CL final. The last hurdle of actually winning it is a bit of a lottery and is more about the team's mentality on the night than any other thing. I also think the intensity of chasing something like 100 points will help in the CL performances. Winning breeds winning.