The Title Race 2022/23

[citymad]

I think Arsenal wind up with 102 points. Only hiccup for them will be loss to City at the Etihad and a tie against City at the Emirates.

You have no idea how badly the PL wants to erase 100 points season as the best ever.

It is already rigged as you saw no pen vs Casemiro in the rags game, no offside vs rags, no pen vs Wolves for foul on Grealish.

Last year they so badly wanted to give it to the dippers after Rodri vs Everton. When that failed they hired Howard Webb to help rig it.

In effect they are copying Uefa, all close calls go against us and is designed to make Pep walk away!

As crazy as it sounds, just try explaining that from a neutral point of view.

Ignore your instincts at your own peril.

 

[Coatigan]

To put it differently, I think that Arsenal have, say, only 35% chance to amass 90+ pts, whereas you think they have at least, say, 85% chance to do it.

Based on what?

 

[waspish]

88 pts.

90

 

[supercity88]

You seriously think we're going to beat arsenal twice? And be pretty much faultless for rest of season?

Well we've beaten them 10 times in a row in the league so why wouldn't we beat them home and away? We don't have to be faultless, because they'll drop points too. We've had a poor first half of the season in all honesty, but we've got a track record of putting a run together so I have to believe we can do it again. Arsenal have set a crazy pace, but I'd be astounded if they carried that through to the end of the season. They're on for 100pts. There's no way they're good enough to keep winning and amassing points at their current rate. They might not fall off a cliff, but even a couple of losses here and there, as well as losing to us and high 80s is their trajectory. If we can get 90pts I think we'll win the league.

 

[alexmcity]

Based on what?

It's difficult to maintain form over a season, inexperience (including the manager, not a proven winner like Klopp), lack of squad depth, luck, etc. They have won almost every game they have dominated, that's being a bit lucky, given the nature of football. It's likely they will have games in which they hit the post 2-3 times and draw (like us at Southampton last season).

Every team in PL history that won 48+ pts after 19 games did worse in the 2nd half of the season, including the very best versions of City, Liverpool and United. It's not a coincidence. The Centurions dropped only 2 pts in the 1st half of the season and 12 pts in the 2nd half. Liverpool dropped only 2 pts in the first 28 games in 19/20 and 13 pts in the last 10 games, United dropped 8 pts in 3 of the final 5 games in 11/12.

Plus, as good as Ramsdale, Saliba, Saka and Martinelli have been, they ain't prime Alisson, VVD, Mane and Salah, and it will show.

Plus, teams will adjust their tactics against Arsenal. They haven't treated them sufficiently seriously at times and have played more attacking formations than against City. Plus some decsions will go against them. They were a bit lucky vs Liverpool, at 1:1 Liverpool could/should have been awarded a pen, etc.

There are many reasons to think Arsenal won't find it easy over the next 19 games. Several good teams lost form in the 2nd half of a season, not only Newcastle (12 pts clear in 95/96) but even experienced winners like Ferguson's United (97/98 and 11/12).

Nothing is guaranteed, but I think Arsenal don't have the quality and depth to win 90+ pts. Might be wrong, time will tell, etc.

 

[Coatigan]

It's difficult to maintain form over a season, inexperience (including the manager, not a proven winner like Klopp), lack of squad depth, luck, etc. They have won almost every game they have dominated, that's being a bit lucky, given the nature of football. It's likely they will have games in which they hit the post 2-3 times and draw (like us at Southampton last season).

Every team in PL history that won 48+ pts after 19 games did worse in the 2nd half of the season, including the very best versions of City, Liverpool and United. It's not a coincidence. The Centurions dropped only 2 pts in the 1st half of the season and 12 pts in the 2nd half. Liverpool dropped only 2 pts in the first 28 games in 19/20 and 13 pts in the last 10 games, United dropped 8 pts in 3 of the final 5 games in 11/12.

Plus, as good as Ramsdale, Saliba, Saka and Martinelli have been, they ain't prime Alisson, VVD, Mane and Salah, and it will show.

Plus, teams will adjust their tactics against Arsenal. They haven't treated them sufficiently seriously at times and have played more attacking formations than against City. Plus some decsions will go against them. They were a bit lucky vs Liverpool, at 1:1 Liverpool could/should have been awarded a pen, etc.

There are many reasons to think Arsenal won't find it easy over the next 19 games. Several good teams lost form in the 2nd half of a season, not only Newcastle (12 pts clear in 95/96) but even experienced winners like Ferguson's United (97/98 and 11/12).

Nothing is guaranteed, but I think Arsenal don't have the quality and depth to win 90+ pts. Might be wrong, time will tell, etc.

So, based on nothing at all, got it.

So you think there is a 65% certainty they will drop more than 18 points the second half of the season. Ok.

 

[alexmcity]

So, based on nothing at all, got it.

Particularly the second part of your claim then, which isn't even consistent with your own logic there.

What would you call *something* when making a guess about the title race? Experience, squad depth, difficulty to maintain a form over a season count for *nothing at all*?

Which part doesn't fit my logic?

 

[Manchester_lalala]

Well we've beaten them 10 times in a row in the league so why wouldn't we beat them home and away? We don't have to be faultless, because they'll drop points too. We've had a poor first half of the season in all honesty, but we've got a track record of putting a run together so I have to believe we can do it again. Arsenal have set a crazy pace, but I'd be astounded if they carried that through to the end of the season. They're on for 100pts. There's no way they're good enough to keep winning and amassing points at their current rate. They might not fall off a cliff, but even a couple of losses here and there, as well as losing to us and high 80s is their trajectory. If we can get 90pts I think we'll win the league.

I keep seeing “they aren’t good enough” despite being the best team in the league by quite a distance so far.

 

[alexmcity]

I keep seeing “they aren’t good enough” despite being the best team in the league by quite a distance so far.

They're the best team by 5-8 pts distance, but not in terms of created and conceded chances.

EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2024/2025 season | Understat.com

xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2024/2025 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.

understat.com

№	Team	M	W	D	L	G	GA	PTS	xG	xGA	xPTS
1	Arsenal	19	16	2	1	45	16	50	40.57-4.43	16.94+0.94	41.56-8.44
2	Manchester City	20	14	3	3	53	20	45	45.39-7.61	17.95-2.05	44.63-0.37

In other words, they have outperformed their xG by quite a distance. Both teams have been roughly equal in terms of created and conceded chances, with City being slightly better in attack and slightly worse in defence.

 

[shemnel]

88 pts.

You're going for 19 pts dropped in 19 games? I.e. P19 W12 D2 L5? Something like that?