The Title Race 2022/23

[Manchester_lalala]

They're the best team by 5-8 pts distance, but not in terms of created and conceded chances.

EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2024/2025 season | Understat.com

xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2024/2025 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.

understat.com

№	Team	M	W	D	L	G	GA	PTS	xG	xGA	xPTS
1	Arsenal	19	16	2	1	45	16	50	40.57-4.43	16.94+0.94	41.56-8.44
2	Manchester City	20	14	3	3	53	20	45	45.39-7.61	17.95-2.05	44.63-0.37

In other words, they have outperformed their xG by quite a distance. Both teams have been roughly equal in terms of created and conceded chances, with City being slightly better in attack and slightly worse in defence.

I couldn’t give a shit about xG, I rate teams by their performances and not stats. They’ve been the best team and it’s not even close.

 

[Harvster]

Arsenal are playing fantastic at the moment but it is a long old season. They are bound to have a bad run of form at some point, or lose key players to injuries, or get robbed by VAR or whatever. Just as confident this season, as that time we were undoubtedly going to chase down Leicester

 

[bluenova]

They're the best team by 5-8 pts distance, but not in terms of created and conceded chances.

EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2024/2025 season | Understat.com

xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2024/2025 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.

understat.com

№	Team	M	W	D	L	G	GA	PTS	xG	xGA	xPTS
1	Arsenal	19	16	2	1	45	16	50	40.57-4.43	16.94+0.94	41.56-8.44
2	Manchester City	20	14	3	3	53	20	45	45.39-7.61	17.95-2.05	44.63-0.37

In other words, they have outperformed their xG by quite a distance. Both teams have been roughly equal in terms of created and conceded chances, with City being slightly better in attack and slightly worse in defence.

I noticed that. The problem is that nearly all that overperformance happened in the first 10 games. Since then they've been getting the points their play deserves.

Possibly that early luck gave them the confidence that they need to go out and expect to win nearly every game.

 

[bluenova]

No, I too expect them to drop points, more than they have already. I don't expect them to get 100 points thats for sure. Just not as many as you are going for.

Either way, to argue they only have a 35% chance of getting 90 points is just daft mate.

It looks deceptively easy as they "only" need 40 more points, having got 50 from the first half of the season.

However, 40 pts is 2.1 pts a game, and they haven't hit that in any of the last 15 seasons. Wenger didn't manage it in his last ten seasons at the club.

50 is an amazing achievement at this stage, but it's still a long way from being a given that they'll carry that kind of form for anything like a whole season.

 

[Coatigan]

It looks deceptively easy as they "only" need 40 more points, having got 50 from the first half of the season.

However, 40 pts is 2.1 pts a game, and they haven't hit that in any of the last 15 seasons. Wenger didn't manage it in his last ten seasons at the club.

50 is an amazing achievement at this stage, but it's still a long way from being a given that they'll carry that kind of form for anything like a whole season.

Yes Wenger is entirely relevant to this season. Ffs.

 

[Mariosfireworks]

It looks deceptively easy as they "only" need 40 more points, having got 50 from the first half of the season.

However, 40 pts is 2.1 pts a game, and they haven't hit that in any of the last 15 seasons. Wenger didn't manage it in his last ten seasons at the club.

50 is an amazing achievement at this stage, but it's still a long way from being a given that they'll carry that kind of form for anything like a whole season.

The last 15 seasons mean nothing, what they did under wenger means nothing, its this season that matters, and they look very good, and all their players look up for it, we have improved the last 2 games but still don't look like we used to, maybe we are changing our play to work with haaland and maybe next season it will a click into place

 

[Coatigan]

I couldn’t give a shit about xG, I rate teams by their performances and not stats. They’ve been the best team and it’s not even close.

The same people have been underestimating this arsenal side all season, and every passing game makes them look more and more fucking stupid. Where's the guy that predicted we'll be 10 points clear by the time we play them.

They are the real deal. So are we, when on form. It won't be easy, and if it gets to a meaningful chance, it will be tight. And that's the best way. All this talk of they wont get 90pts, who the fuck says we will get more than 90. With the same logic of second half drop-off and all that xG crap. They could win it with 85pts, we they could miss out with 91. Who gives a shit, lets just win some fucking games in a row and see where things are.

 

[alexmcity]

It looks deceptively easy as they "only" need 40 more points, having got 50 from the first half of the season.

However, 40 pts is 2.1 pts a game, and they haven't hit that in any of the last 15 seasons. Wenger didn't manage it in his last ten seasons at the club.

50 is an amazing achievement at this stage, but it's still a long way from being a given that they'll carry that kind of form for anything like a whole season.

Last season, people were taking tendencies from the first 19 games quite seriously. "But Liverpool have dropped 16 pts in the first 19 games, they can't compete for the title!" Turned out, it's more complicated than that. Now we have similar projections of form from the first half of the season to the 2nd half, but in the other direction: "Arsenal have dropped only 7 pts in 19 games, how can they drop 19 pts in the remaining games?? It's unlikely!" Well, time will tell.

 

[Tolmie scores]

Last season, people were taking tendencies from the first 19 games quite seriously. "But Liverpool have dropped 16 pts in the first 19 games, they can't compete for the title!" Turned out, it's more complicated than that. Now we have similar projections of form from the first half of the season to the 2nd half, but in the other direction: "Arsenal have dropped only 7 pts in 19 games, how can they drop 19 pts in the remaining games?? It's unlikely!" Well, time will tell.

Games like Everton will be our doing. They lhave about 9 from 12 and we drew ar home!! Can't see Arsenal fking up.like that

 

[wolviedinho]

Arsenal are an early version of city. Fuck em. Stole our ideas and got lucky on recruitment.

City B team is what they should be called. Pep trained Arteta too well. That was our only mistake.

Also, seems we have a few problem players in the squad. Cancelo looking out, Bernie moping about the place. New players trying to settle into a new system. Players coming back overweight not to mention burn out and it all makes sense now. Pep needs our backing now more than ever. Dealing with petulant players probably doing his head in.