The Title Race 2022/23

[Chippy_boy]

All true. Despite all the media hysteria about United today Liverpool dominated possession and had many more shots than them last night. They carved United open numerous times but couldn't finish. Liverpool were poor in midfield but not as bad has the media is claiming. United hit them on the counter and put a lot of effort in for a change. Apparently that's enough to produce headlines about the "new Ten Hag era." I am not buying it. I think they will struggle at Southampton.

Oh, let's be absolutely clear. United are irrelevant to any discussions about title contenders. They will struggle to get into the top 4 again IMO.

 

[domalino]

We went from scraping into the top 4 in Pep's first season to hitting 100 points the next. Liverpool went from scraping into top 4 some 25 points behind us to hitting 97 points. Leicester went from battling relegation to winning it. Chelsea went from finishing mid table to winning it.

Don't think anything like that will with Arsenal or Spurs, but not because it can't.

It will be a tougher league all round. We should be generally stronger though. The size of the squad is the big issue to overcome.

Liverpool were in the Champions League final the season before they won it, having knocked us, the centurions out.

Leicester won the weakest league title in history because all the main challengers changed coaches and we were hamstringed by FFP restrictions.

As I told you last night, comparing Chelsea's premier league title winning team bouncing back after Mourinho imploded to Spurs who haven't won the title since we landed on the moon is beyond dishonest.


Outside City, only Liverpool are capable of getting over 90 points this season. No one else has any idea how fucking hard it is to keep pace with us, none of them know how to compete on all fronts, none of them know what it's like to have to churn out 13, 14 wins in a row.

 

[Coatigan]

So only teams that finish 1st and 2nd can win the league the following year?

Bollocks.

I am not arguing Spurs or Arsenal will win the league. I am saying claiming that anyone that finished 4th or below can't win it or is automatically not a contender is naive, and well just wrong, given it has happened on a number of occasions before.

 

[Coatigan]

As I told you last night, comparing Chelsea's premier league title winning team bouncing back after Mourinho imploded to Spurs who haven't won the title since we landed on the moon is beyond dishonest.

I don't think that was me btw. And I never made that comparison.

 

[Cobwebcat]

Premier League Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Premier League predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Above looks a little low to me.

Fun Fact: after 9 games the PL is around 80% accurate with the finishing positions and only gets more accurate from 30 games onwards.

 

[waspish]

Premier League Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Premier League predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Above looks a little low to me.

Fun Fact: after 9 games the PL is around 80% accurate with the finishing positions and only gets more accurate from 30 games onwards.

I’ll settle for that now

 

[JOGAMIGMOG]

Liverpool were in the Champions League final the season before they won it, having knocked us, the centurions out.

Leicester won the weakest league title in history because all the main challengers changed coaches and we were hamstringed by FFP restrictions.

As I told you last night, comparing Chelsea's premier league title winning team bouncing back after Mourinho imploded to Spurs who haven't won the title since we landed on the moon is beyond dishonest.


Outside City, only Liverpool are capable of getting over 90 points this season. No one else has any idea how fucking hard it is to keep pace with us, none of them know how to compete on all fronts, none of them know what it's like to have to churn out 13, 14 wins in a row.

Good points. Makes you realise how fantastic an achievement some of our title wins have been.

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

Outside City, only Liverpool are capable of getting over 90 points this season. No one else has any idea how fucking hard it is to keep pace with us, none of them know how to compete on all fronts, none of them know what it's like to have to churn out 13, 14 wins in a row.

This is the key thing for me. Average points total to win the league over the last five years is 95. Only City and Liverpool have got close to that because it's really, really, really exceptionally difficult to do. Until another team does it I won't believe they can do it. Have stranger things happened in football than Arsenal finding an extra 25 points from one season to the next? Of course they have. Should you be basing your prediction for the season on it? Absolutely fucking not. If we get 95 points we will win the league, or Liverpool will have han exceptional mid-season run and fair play to them. If we get 85 then Arsenal have a chance.

 

[Coatigan]

This is the key thing for me. Average points total to win the league over the last five years is 95.

It is 86.

Otherwise, broadly agree.

Still can't really claim it as some certainty that only ourselves and liverpool could possibly win the title.

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

It is 86.

Otherwise, broadly agree.

Still can't really claim it as some certainty that only ourselves and liverpool could possibly win the title.

93 + 86 + 99 + 98 + 100 / 5 = 95.2

And not claiming anything is certain. Just that I think people forget how hard it is to regularly score 90+ points is, and that until someone other than Klopp or Pep does it I'm going to assume they can't.

There's an element of "prove me wrong here". If Arteta does it then good for him.