The Title Race 2022/23

[OccupiedPalestineBlues]

For the fun of it I’m guessing mid to high 90’s but I also recon that this season is particularly hard to guess because of it being split for the World Cup.

My thoughts are that, in the build up to the World Cup some players will perform harder than they generally do because they want to be assured of places in their national sides, and some will take it easier than they generally do because they feel assured of their World Cup selections but worry about excluding themselves by getting injured.
And then, when the season restarts, teams throughout the premier league will comprise of mix of knackered players (who’ve given their all both physically and emotionally), not so knackered but fairly depressed players (whose nations were knocked out early doors), and very rested players who’ve trained and partied.

Additionally, after players have been drilled in the playing style of their national teams coaches, the rhythm of play will be out of kilter at most clubs, and maybe the lesser clubs will do well for it because they tend to have less internationals playing for them?
Perhaps the World Cup will have little immediate affect but show in the legs of some players at the arse end of the season?

Another theory doing the rounds is that the high level of ‘uncontrolled’ drug testing at the World Cup means that certain clubs players are currently playing like the asthmatics they claim to be because they don’t dare dope right now - but that they’ll be straight back on the medications et al, and running around like Forest Gump / gegenpressing furiously again the moment they return for league duties.

And whatever of the above is true or just fanciful bollox, I think it remains true that the World Cup could well have a profound affect on player performances (and thus match outcomes) both before and after the event . . so could a very low points tally win it this season???

 

[aguero93:20]

If we draw 10 games from now till the end of the season and win the rest, but Arsenal go on to win the league by say 10 points. Will that make us one of the greatest prem teams of all time as the new invincibles?

Of course not. If we won the league by 40 points with 110 points and 200 goals and didn't lose a game we'd still be inferior to the great penalty kick specialists of the previous season.

 

[mccity]

I suspect Arsenal, like Chelsea last season, will hit a roadblock once the fixtures begin to pile-up.

I'm more nervy about Liverpool suddenly going on a run.

I think anything in the high-80s should do it.

 

[Academica]

Whilst that would make us the new invincibles, it would also make Arsenal the new Centurions!

Exactly and we all know that the media talk down the centurions, but talk up the invincibles.

 

[Coatigan]

Seems to be a common take that Arsenal can't get to 90 points. On what they have shown so far, they can. Chelsea might surprise a few with a good run too. Liverpool could be too far behind now.

 

[alexmcity]

I suspect Arsenal, like Chelsea last season, will hit a roadblock once the fixtures begin to pile-up.

I'm more nervy about Liverpool suddenly going on a run.

I think anything in the high-80s should do it.

In terms of points, Liverpool are not much worse than us after 8 games in 20/21: we had 12 pts, they have 10 pts. But there are 3 important differences which are highly likely to stop them from going on a run.

The first difference is that after adding Dias we were very solid in defence and built a good platform for the season. In contrast, Liverpool concede many chances in every difficult game. That may change with Konate coming back from injury, but it is unlikely, for the problems come from their ageing midfield and Salah failing to press as much as in the past.

More importantly, the age profiles of City 20/21 and Liverpool 22/23 are quite different. Our CBs and CMs were younger than VVD, Matip, Henderson, Thiago...Salah may have peaked as well. Also, even younger players like Robertson and Fabinho look in poor physical condition compared to the past.

Another difference is that there were no crowds in 20/21 and it was easier to win away from home. In 22/23, winning 6-7 away games in a row is way more difficult.

Liverpool are not likely to challenge this and maybe next season. Too early to tell, but, imo, Arsenal will be our main rival next season, for they have several players (Saliba, Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli, even Jesus and Zinch, they are entering their prime now) who are likely to get better, also Arsenal will add depth to the squad. But this season, Chelsea may pose a bigger threat to us than Arsenal. They have more experience and more depth. Maybe Spurs, too. United and Liverpool are likely to miss out on CL places, imo.

 

[Octavian]

85 points looks enough at the moment.

There’s 90 to play for and Liverpool can only get 100 if they win every game from now, I think it’s pretty obvious they’ll drop more than 15 points out of 90 now.

Arsenal will fall away, they’ve managed to start the same side every week and haven’t had a proper injury yet.

By the time the World Cup is over and we’ve played a few league games again, I fully expect us to have opened up a gap.

 

[DMA's]

Don’t think arsenal have the depth to sustain a challenge just yet. More concerned about Chelsea think they have a brilliant manager and a very good squad.

 

[willipp]

85 points looks enough at the moment.

There’s 90 to play for and Liverpool can only get 100 if they win every game from now, I think it’s pretty obvious they’ll drop more than 15 points out of 90 now.

Arsenal will fall away, they’ve managed to start the same side every week and haven’t had a proper injury yet.

By the time the World Cup is over and we’ve played a few league games again, I fully expect us to have opened up a gap.

Yeah when you look at arsenals bench on sunday, they didnt have that many options. Then compare that to ours where we had Alvarez, gundo, laporte, grealish, gomez, palmer on the bench and thats with walker, stones and phillips all injured. Our squad has amazing quality if not massive depth, where Arsenal are showing they have a very good 11, but when injuries hit i don't think they have the quality in depth to keep it going.

 

[Manchester33]

I think Arsenal has finished on more than 85 points once in the Premier League era (invincibles season - 90 points).

We have 87 points left to play for (winning every game leaves us on 110 points). 3 defeats and 5 more draws would leave us on 91 - a figure they haven't matched in 30+ years (if ever?).

I do think they'll finish second, but I think it will be by some distance. 538 gives us a 74% chance of winning the league, which I think is low. I think it's more like 85%.

The big tell will be the games against them. If we can beat them home and away, the league will be wrapped up in April.