The Title Race 2022/23

[alexmcity]

All fair, other than I didn't say they are pointless. I said they don't matter. In the sense, they are simply predictions based on how they expect teams to perform. But both teams are already deviating from the expectation. If that makes sense.

They don't matter for what?

They don't matter in the trivial sense, that they don't play on the pitch and decide games, nobody in his right mind would say otherwise.

They do matter, though, if one wants to form an opinion on the probabilities for a City title win after the loss vs Brentford. E.g., one can be worried we are in a bad position now, and can question his worrying conclusions by looking up at people who are better at calculating probabilities of football games. Probabilities don't guarantee outcomes, nobody denies that.

 

[Blu3m00n91]

This is an arsenal team that absolutely saw their arse when trying to get top 4 last season. They are going to have do something they haven’t done in nearly 20 years so if they do then fair play

 

[supercity88]

Akanji was bad vs Brentford, but it was a good idea to test him against such teams and see how he fares. Also, my guess is that Pep intends to play Akanji and Laporte in big games due to their ability to break the lines with forward passes, and they should play together to form a partnership.

In hindsight, many things may seem obvious, but that's in hindsight. Read the pre-match thread against Chelsea when we smashed them 6:0, most posters were pessimistic about the starting XI, it seemed strange. Pep is a top manager for a reason, and fans are fans for a reason.

It would have been a good idea to test Akanji if we'd have won. But clearly it wasn't. He wasn't in isolation at being poor but it was a game he was always going to struggle in based on his attributes and how Brentford were likely to play. It's not in hindsight that this issue has arisen either. It was there to see from the pattern of play in the first half which didn't change through the second. Sometimes Pep trusts his team to find their way through and he sticks with it. But the changes came too late and were illogical. He’s undoubtedly a top manager but that doesn’t mean he gets it right and can’t be criticised. He got the CL final completely wrong having picked a consistent team finally and sticking with it. Zinchenko came on against PSG performed brilliantly and kept his place. Pep tried different things against Chelsea in the build up and simply played the occasion rather than seeing how much better we were if we played our natural game. The result might not have changed but we'd have been more effective.

Anyway, this isn’t the thread for that. It’s about a title race and we’re in one. Football is an art not a science. There’s merit in statistics but sometimes a team beats another one when no one gives them a chance and that’s why we love it. Leicester defied the stats to win it. Arsenal could do the same. We’d expect them to stutter when the games come more regularly for them, but they might find a way of winning and the likes of Vieira, Nketiah and Smith Rowe might come in on rotation and deliver. We might continue our poor form and lack of balance and struggle to put that winning run together that we’re hoping for and to a big degree expecting.

What’s for sure is, with Pep in charge, he will not allow this team to rest on its laurels and he’ll hammer them until they’re giving more and performing. I can't wait for the season to restart!

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

Football is an art not a science

It's actually a sport. :) :) :)

 

[alexmcity]

That's interesting for nerds. AI will take over football in the coming decades. Wouldn't be surprised if Pep turned out to be one of the last great (human) coaches. In a decade or two, AI coaches will be better tacticians than the human ones.

Surprisingly, stats models have Belgium as favourites in the WC and England as12th. Bit strange that.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41...=nature&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1668520997

 

[supercity88]

It's actually a sport. :) :) :)

Not the way Bernardo plays it.

 

[MadchesterCity]

I think you do City a massive disservice?

It's not a title race until games have real pressure around them, something Arsenal are yet to experience.

Completely different animal the closer something becomes.

Arsenal have done very well up to this point but they don't have the experience of a run-in, coupled with the weight of expectation a club like Arsenal has to a massive underdog like Leicester were.

If Arsenal finish top three, Arteta deserves huge credit, because I don't see them still in the mix by the time March comes around.

They will have something like 19 games in 46 days after the World Cup.

Brutal for a squad like ours, never mind Arsenal's.

Certainly not intentionally, I do tend to prepare myself for worst case scenario so I'm possibly just preparing myself for Arsenal running away with it. I am genuinely concerned but you are right they don't have experience like we do. I keep waiting for them to slip up and they are jumping and clearing every hurdle which is alarming

 

[Cobwebcat]

That's interesting for nerds. AI will take over football in the coming decades. Wouldn't be surprised if Pep turned out to be one of the last great (human) coaches. In a decade or two, AI coaches will be better tacticians than the human ones.

Surprisingly, stats models have Belgium as favourites in the WC and England as12th. Bit strange that.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41...=nature&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1668520997

Interesting article.

From what I hear on data podcasts City Liverpool Barca Brighton and Brentford are at the front of footy data analytics right now the latter two very obviously driven but their owners.

538 International rankings here;

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-api/international/spi_global_rankings_intl.csv

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

Certainly not intentionally, I do tend to prepare myself for worst case scenario so I'm possibly just preparing myself for Arsenal running away with it. I am genuinely concerned but you are right they don't have experience like we do. I keep waiting for them to slip up and they are jumping and clearing every hurdle which is alarming

Not even the first furlong mate.

Wait until they have to do the whole course again.

I actually think City won't feel the pressure as much it being Arsenal, rather than Liverpool?

Perhaps that will help Arsenal, but I suspect our lads will play with a little more freedom.

Won't do us any harm either, five or six teams fighting for top four and having vested interests.

 

[Coatigan]

This is an arsenal team that absolutely saw their arse when trying to get top 4 last season. They are going to have do something they haven’t done in nearly 20 years so if they do then fair play

It isn't though. It is that team with 5 or 6 players replaced with better players, including a couple that have been through the winning mill before.

They will be about and take consistenty to beat. And it will feel all the better if we do.