The Title Race 2022/23

[supercity88]

We can't do without rotation, and Pep is a master of it going by our results over the last 5 years. Also, if you divide the squad between firm starters and bench warmers, squad harmony will suffer.

The fixture list after the WC will be brutal for all teams, and those which rotate the best will be the best. Old-school notions of (constantly playing) your best XI or best CB pair or best this and that should be retired nowadays. We have 17-18 high quality players and every one of them should feel part of the team and get opportunities to show his value to the team.

We have to rotate but we also have to be smart in who we pick against certain opposition. Some will look to counter quickly and play the ball in behind so you'll want quicker players. Some will go aerial and you'll want a more physical partnership. With the WC looming we had no need to rotate though. Burn the fuckers into the ground whilst they're with us, let their national teams deal with it. It's basically what Pep said he'd do.

Mee and Toney are excellent in the air. Akanji isn't. Laporte is okay, but Ake is probably better and I'm sure a stat man can present the data to support that (or crucify me). Ake and Dias to me was the partnership for Brentford. Ake didn't play for personal reasons so Laporte and Dias should have been the combination. Akanji is composed on the ball and reads the game pretty well, but it's hard to settle into a side when your playing CB with different partners or at RB. Some players need that rhythm and he'll need to adapt. I just feel like it was obvious how Brentford would play and we should have picked the right system for it, or changed it. Bernardo had to come central for Gundogan and we needed Mahrez wide right, or to switch Foden there and play Grealish.

 

[alexmcity]

We have to rotate but we also have to be smart in who we pick against certain opposition. Some will look to counter quickly and play the ball in behind so you'll want quicker players. Some will go aerial and you'll want a more physical partnership. With the WC looming we had no need to rotate though. Burn the fuckers into the ground whilst they're with us, let their national teams deal with it. It's basically what Pep said he'd do.

Mee and Toney are excellent in the air. Akanji isn't. Laporte is okay, but Ake is probably better and I'm sure a stat man can present the data to support that (or crucify me). Ake and Dias to me was the partnership for Brentford. Ake didn't play for personal reasons so Laporte and Dias should have been the combination. Akanji is composed on the ball and reads the game pretty well, but it's hard to settle into a side when your playing CB with different partners or at RB. Some players need that rhythm and he'll need to adapt. I just feel like it was obvious how Brentford would play and we should have picked the right system for it, or changed it. Bernardo had to come central for Gundogan and we needed Mahrez wide right, or to switch Foden there and play Grealish.

Akanji was bad vs Brentford, but it was a good idea to test him against such teams and see how he fares. Also, my guess is that Pep intends to play Akanji and Laporte in big games due to their ability to break the lines with forward passes, and they should play together to form a partnership.

In hindsight, many things may seem obvious, but that's in hindsight. Read the pre-match thread against Chelsea when we smashed them 6:0, most posters were pessimistic about the starting XI, it seemed strange. Pep is a top manager for a reason, and fans are fans for a reason.

 

[Cobwebcat]

I am saying they don't matter. And can't be used as a measure of a season. Winning and losing games can.

538 works as a formula, sure. So what. We still neec to win games, at least 2 or 3 more than Arsenal will manage as it stands.

In terms of trophies I agree.

In terms of a how a team has performed I disagree.

 

[HelloCity]

People forget that Arsenal were in title races under Wenger in the 2010’s but fell away by March. They were up there in 2013-2014 for sure. That 6-3 game Dec 13 was billed as a title contender match but 3 months later they were no where.

 

[Roachy]

People forget that Arsenal were in title races under Wenger in the 2010’s but fell away by March. They were up there in 2013-2014 for sure. That 6-3 game Dec 13 was billed as a title contender match but 3 months later they were no where.

I'm hoping the darkest depths of winter post World Cup will see them off.

 

[alexmcity]

I am saying they don't matter. And can't be used as a measure of a season. Winning and losing games can.

538 works as a formula, sure. So what. We still neec to win games, at least 2 or 3 more than Arsenal will manage as it stands.

Algorithms are based on results, so it's hard to get your point. No one is silly enough to say that algorithms guarantee (title) wins or outcomes of games. 538 say that Arsenal have a 36% chance to win the title, that's pretty good. If we lose vs Leeds and they win their next game, then the chances between us and them will be even. And that's logical.

We are talking about probabilities. It's obvious that the outcomes of games and league compaings involve probabilities. Some things are possible but not probable. Life, not just football, is about probabilities, for few things are absolutely guaranteed. The question is, who is good at determining probabilities. Bookies and 538 are generally good. It's mathematically possible to have guaranteed success at betting on football games, a professional mathematician published a book on this topic, but the sums are relatively small and the strategy is boring. Anyway, that the bookies and 538 have us as favourites is hardly a surprise, and being favourites doesn't guarantee success.

If your point is that Arsenal can win and shouldn't be underestimated, most of us agree. If your point is that the chance for an Arsenal win isn't worse than City's, you can say why. To say that the calculation of probabilities is pointless is pointless, though, for our brains, our institutions, scientists, etc. calculate probabilities all the time.

 

[Withnail]

We have to rotate but we also have to be smart in who we pick against certain opposition. Some will look to counter quickly and play the ball in behind so you'll want quicker players. Some will go aerial and you'll want a more physical partnership. With the WC looming we had no need to rotate though. Burn the fuckers into the ground whilst they're with us, let their national teams deal with it. It's basically what Pep said he'd do.

Mee and Toney are excellent in the air. Akanji isn't. Laporte is okay, but Ake is probably better and I'm sure a stat man can present the data to support that (or crucify me). Ake and Dias to me was the partnership for Brentford. Ake didn't play for personal reasons so Laporte and Dias should have been the combination. Akanji is composed on the ball and reads the game pretty well, but it's hard to settle into a side when your playing CB with different partners or at RB. Some players need that rhythm and he'll need to adapt. I just feel like it was obvious how Brentford would play and we should have picked the right system for it, or changed it. Bernardo had to come central for Gundogan and we needed Mahrez wide right, or to switch Foden there and play Grealish.

I agree, neither Laporte or Akanji dealt very well with the aerial threat of Brentford imo. It was shame Ake wasn't available as he very good in the air and has been our best cb this season imo. Also I think Reuben would have been a better option than Akanji to handle the physicality of Toney.

 

[Coatigan]

In terms of trophies I agree.

In terms of a how a team has performed I disagree.

That's fair, to a point. But as it doesn't take in things like form, injuries, off pitch distractions, refereeing/var inconsistency etc, I disagree.

The fact it can swing so suddey too makes it nothing meaningful to go by. Arsenal are overperforming, and their expectation hasn't caught up. I wouldn't say we are underperforming, but we could be doing better, hopefully will.

Don't get me wrong, I look at it myself, possibly as much as you do. I love seeing us predicted at over 70% chance of wining it. Doesn't mean I believe that to be the case at any given point.

 

[Zinchilla]

People forget that Arsenal were in title races under Wenger in the 2010’s but fell away by March. They were up there in 2013-2014 for sure. That 6-3 game Dec 13 was billed as a title contender match but 3 months later they were no where.

Yep. This Arsenal team are a good side, well balanced. But he tends to pick the same 11 for every match and if he can keep them up there, doing that till June, with WC hangovers and regular euro games then that will be an outstanding achievement of fitness and medical care.

 

[Coatigan]

Algorithms are based on results, so it's hard to get your point. No one is silly enough to say that algorithms guarantee (title) wins or outcomes of games. 538 say that Arsenal have a 36% chance to win the title, that's pretty good. If we lose vs Leeds and they win their next game, then the chances between us and them will be even. And that's logical.

We are talking about probabilities. It's obvious that the outcomes of games and league compaings involve probabilities. Some things are possible but not probable. Life, not just football, is about probabilities, for few things are absolutely guaranteed. The question is, who is good at determining probabilities. Bookies and 538 are generally good. It's mathematically possible to have guaranteed success at betting on football games, a professional mathematician published a book on this topic, but the sums are relatively small and the strategy is boring. Anyway, that the bookies and 538 have us as favourites is hardly a surprise, and being favourites doesn't guarantee success.

If your point is that Arsenal can win and shouldn't be underestimated, most of us agree. If your point is that the chance for an Arsenal win isn't worse than City's, you can say why. To say that the calculation of probabilities is pointless is pointless, though, for our brains, our institutions, scientists, etc. calculate probabilities all the time.

All fair, other than I didn't say they are pointless. I said they don't matter. In the sense, they are simply predictions based on how they expect teams to perform. But both teams are already deviating from the expectation. If that makes sense.