The Title Race 2022/23

[Cobwebcat]

The 'odds' dropped by 20% with just the brentford game. It literally means nothing, it can swing at any given point.

I think that’s the point. If they stayed static then they would be strange Indeed. They’re supposed to move like that.

I get your point that they are volatile though. Take the starting position perhaps before a ball is kicked and see if you can beat the final table at the end. I can’t and it’s won me a few quid.

Im curious though….are you saying all prediction sites are meaningless or just 538? Do you have another site you prefer? Sure if you are expecting a prediction site to be 100% accurate you would have a long wait and will be continually disappointed. I don’t think anyone thinks they have the lottery numbers in advance.

Im not sure what you are expecting? 538 has been shown to beat most prediction sites most of the time. Clubelo comes second most of the time on average followed by ECI. Yes there really are sites that do monitor the accuracy of footy algorithms…they will go into overdrive for the World Cup.

All of them are prediction sites though not crystal balls. They will all beat the vast majority of people’s individual guesses on here or anywhere else. So unless we are saying this whole thread is meaningless (In which case just give it a swerve) why not see what they are saying? I quite like the thread…bit of fun no more.

 

[Champions Again Ole Ole]

After the break, Arsenal play Newcastle and United at home and Brighton and Spurs away in consecutive games. If they take 10 points from them 4 games, i'll start to worry a little.

In the last few games they play Liverpool Away, West Ham Away, Southampton Home, CIty Away, Chelsea Home, Newcastle Away in the space of 28 days. Add to that a couple of Europa League ties. I just don't think they have the squad to deal with that.

 

[Coatigan]

I think that’s the point. If they stayed static then they would be strange Indeed. They’re supposed to move like that.

I get your point that they are volatile though. Take the starting position perhaps before a ball is kicked and see if you can beat the final table at the end. I can’t and it’s won me a few quid.

Im curious though….are you saying all prediction sites are meaningless or just 538? Do you have another site you prefer? Sure if you are expecting a prediction site to be 100% accurate you would have a long wait and will be continually disappointed. I don’t think anyone thinks they have the lottery numbers in advance.

Im not sure what you are expecting? 538 has been shown to beat most prediction sites most of the time. Clubelo comes second most of the time on average followed by ECI. Yes there really are sites that do monitor the accuracy of footy algorithms…they will go into overdrive for the World Cup.

All of them are prediction sites though not crystal balls. They will all beat the vast majority of people’s individual guesses on here or anywhere else. So unless we are saying this whole thread is meaningless (In which case just give it a swerve) why not see what they are saying? I quite like the thread…bit of fun no more.

I am saying they don't matter. And can't be used as a measure of a season. Winning and losing games can.

538 works as a formula, sure. So what. We still neec to win games, at least 2 or 3 more than Arsenal will manage as it stands.

 

[Citizen in Pakistan]

The only silver lining from Brentford defeat is that city no they're up against a proper title challenger and can't afford to mess around any further, so post world cup, i expect city to up their game and give it all and when city gets in that mood they're hard to stop. I think 88 would be the golden number

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

They have predicted Arsenal to finish on 81 points yet Arsenal already have 37 points after 14 games.
Currently playing at 2.65 points per match

So with 24 games to go they expect Arsenal to get 44 points
Dropping to 1.83 points per match. Form for under 70 points a season

Not sure on the sums there, i'll be amazed if Arsenal finish on as low as 81 points

I think far too many people aren't taking Arsenal serious enough

I think you do City a massive disservice?

It's not a title race until games have real pressure around them, something Arsenal are yet to experience.

Completely different animal the closer something becomes.

Arsenal have done very well up to this point but they don't have the experience of a run-in, coupled with the weight of expectation a club like Arsenal has to a massive underdog like Leicester were.

If Arsenal finish top three, Arteta deserves huge credit, because I don't see them still in the mix by the time March comes around.

They will have something like 19 games in 46 days after the World Cup.

Brutal for a squad like ours, never mind Arsenal's.

 

[Hayley Croppers chopper]

You presuppose that Arsenal will continue to win at the rate from their first 14 games, and that's unlikely to happen.

Take the Centurions. City 17/18 dropped only 2 pts in the first 20 games or so, and then dropped 12 (!) points in the 2nd half of the season. I very much doubt Arsenal can go above 90 pts, or even 85 pts. It's not impossible, but it's not likely. If we win 88 pts, we are champions, even if we don't win vs Arsenal. I'd put money on that if I could.

Arsenal are not to be underestimated, but all of their attacking players and CBs have been available so far, and decisions have gone their way. That's likely to change at some point.

I liked this statement up to the last comment. When the scousers won it , absolutely nothing went against them. When we just pipped them to the title they were relentless in picking up points.
Like you said it is unlikely that Arsenal will do that but it is not impossible.

 

[uwe rosler 28]

The big worry for me is we haven't looked like going on a long winning run like we have in previous seasons. Performances have been inconsistent and we far from look solid to easy at times to play through. Pep seems to be struggling to find the balance now we have Haaland we could be a few more points behind than we are.

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

The big worry for me is we haven't looked like going on a long winning run like we have in previous seasons. Performances have been inconsistent and we far from look solid to easy at times to play through. Pep seems to be struggling to find the balance now we have Haaland we could be a few more points behind than we are.

The problem with long winning runs is that they have to start, by definition, after a bad result.

 

[richards30]

The big worry for me is we haven't looked like going on a long winning run like we have in previous seasons. Performances have been inconsistent and we far from look solid to easy at times to play through. Pep seems to be struggling to find the balance now we have Haaland we could be a few more points behind than we are.

Pep needs to stop fucking around with the CB partnership?

 

[alexmcity]

Pep needs to stop fucking around with the CB partnership?

We can't do without rotation, and Pep is a master of it going by our results over the last 5 years. Also, if you divide the squad between firm starters and bench warmers, squad harmony will suffer.

The fixture list after the WC will be brutal for all teams, and those which rotate the best will be the best. Old-school notions of (constantly playing) your best XI or best CB pair or best this and that should be retired nowadays. We have 17-18 high quality players and every one of them should feel part of the team and get opportunities to show his value to the team.