The Title Race 2022/23

[Stephen230]

Anyone know the odds on a Leeds red card against us?

13/2 @Skybet

 

[petrusha]

Just been looking at the table from four weeks ago, just before the Easter weekend fixtures on 8 and 9 April. Arsenal led us by eight points, though we had a game in hand. The respective goal differences were +45 for us and +43 for them.

Each side has played five league games since then, and we've made up nine points on them - i.e. we now lead by one, still with a game in hand. Their goal difference has actually regressed by one to +42, trailing us by 15 on that metric. It's a remarkable turnaround, really, and more than we had any right to expect a month ago - especially as we had both legs of a CL tie with Bayern Munich and a FA Cup semi in that period while Arsenal could concentrate on the PL.

It's a cliché that momentum is crucial in sport, but clichés become clichés because they contain a powerful element of truth and momentum really is vital. Here' the momentum is with us and we can afford to draw rather than win in two of our final five games, which gives us something of a buffer.

Of course, you never know in sport and it's far from impossible for Arsenal to win it from here. Let's take comfort in the fact we have one of the best coaches ever, a top group of assistants to back him up and some great players. Collectively, they've nearly all been there before and know what it takes even when there's constant pressure to win tough fixtures.

Personally, I don't hold with analysing what fixtures are left and where each side may or may not drop points. For me, the first principle is to focus on looking after what we can control, which means winning our own games. The second is to take the games one at a time. Hardly ground-breaking stuff, I know, but reading through this thread I see plenty who don't seem able to stick to these principles.

All that matters for now is to beat Leeds. Do that and we do what's in our control, which is to put Arsenal under pressure to keep a decent foothold in the race by winning away to a Newcastle side that's lost one league game at home all season. If we slip up tomorrow, so be it (though I'll be gutted). And if Arsenal manage to do win at St James's Park after what's happened in the last month, then we'll have to say fair play to them. They'll have put a bit of pressure back on us.

Then we have a tough game at Goodison against opponents fighting for their lives between the two legs of the Madrid tie. We've coped with challenges like that before, but let's not think now about what may or may not be a good result against Everton. Before reflecting on that, let's see what we do against Leeds, what Arsenal do on Tyneside and get the match in Madrid out of the way.

TL, DR - Anyone would rather be in our position than theirs, even if it's still no foregone conclusion. However, let's just take it one game at a time and try not to expend stress worrying about other fixtures long before the event.

 

[mattcity5]

13/2 @Skybet

Reasonable.

Leeds are always "enthusiastic" when they take us on and just fly into tackles like idiots. Might be more so with Sam geeing them up.

Same target as every game for me at this point - win without injuries.

 

[mancity_life]

IF we win it against Chelsea AND beat Real, let them have the midweek Brighton game off but they need to play against Brentford to keep momentum going into the finals. They don't have to play the full 90 but we don't want them losing their rhythm

if we win the title against chelsea i wouldn't then worry really about the league play weak teams and focus on the champions league

 

[mancity_life]

Just been looking at the table from four weeks ago, just before the Easter weekend fixtures on 8 and 9 April. Arsenal led us by eight points, though we had a game in hand. The respective goal differences were +45 for us and +43 for them.

Each side has played five league games since then, and we've made up nine points on them - i.e. we now lead by one, still with a game in hand. Their goal difference has actually regressed by one to +42, trailing us by 15 on that metric. It's a remarkable turnaround, really, and more than we had any right to expect a month ago - especially as we had both legs of a CL tie with Bayern Munich and a FA Cup semi in that period while Arsenal could concentrate on the PL.

It's a cliché that momentum is crucial in sport, but clichés become clichés because they contain a powerful element of truth and momentum really is vital. Here' the momentum is with us and we can afford to draw rather than win in two of our final five games, which gives us something of a buffer.

Of course, you never know in sport and it's far from impossible for Arsenal to win it from here. Let's take comfort in the fact we have one of the best coaches ever, a top group of assistants to back him up and some great players. Collectively, they've nearly all been there before and know what it takes even when there's constant pressure to win tough fixtures.

Personally, I don't hold with analysing what fixtures are left and where each side may or may not drop points. For me, the first principle is to focus on looking after what we can control, which means winning our own games. The second is to take the games one at a time. Hardly ground-breaking stuff, I know, but reading through this thread I see plenty who don't seem able to stick to these principles.

All that matters for now is to beat Leeds. Do that and we do what's in our control, which is to put Arsenal under pressure to keep a decent foothold in the race by winning away to a Newcastle side that's lost one league game at home all season. If we slip up tomorrow, so be it (though I'll be gutted). And if Arsenal manage to do win at St James's Park after what's happened in the last month, then we'll have to say fair play to them. They'll have put a bit of pressure back on us.

Then we have a tough game at Goodison against opponents fighting for their lives between the two legs of the Madrid tie. We've coped with challenges like that before, but let's not think now about what may or may not be a good result against Everton. Before reflecting on that, let's see what we do against Leeds, what Arsenal do on Tyneside and get the match in Madrid out of the way.

TL, DR - Anyone would rather be in our position than theirs, even if it's still no foregone conclusion. However, let's just take it one game at a time and try not to expend stress worrying about other fixtures long before the event.

anything can happen but there is no way arsenal could outscore Newcastle like you mentioned they only lost once all season at home but the best arsenal could get a draw and thats enough for them newcastle will deal the hammer blow

 

[OccupiedPalestineBlues]

Just been looking at the table from four weeks ago, just before the Easter weekend fixtures on 8 and 9 April. Arsenal led us by eight points, though we had a game in hand. The respective goal differences were +45 for us and +43 for them.

Each side has played five league games since then, and we've made up nine points on them - i.e. we now lead by one, still with a game in hand. Their goal difference has actually regressed by one to +42, trailing us by 15 on that metric. It's a remarkable turnaround, really, and more than we had any right to expect a month ago - especially as we had both legs of a CL tie with Bayern Munich and a FA Cup semi in that period while Arsenal could concentrate on the PL.

It's a cliché that momentum is crucial in sport, but clichés become clichés because they contain a powerful element of truth and momentum really is vital. Here' the momentum is with us and we can afford to draw rather than win in two of our final five games, which gives us something of a buffer.

Of course, you never know in sport and it's far from impossible for Arsenal to win it from here. Let's take comfort in the fact we have one of the best coaches ever, a top group of assistants to back him up and some great players. Collectively, they've nearly all been there before and know what it takes even when there's constant pressure to win tough fixtures.

Personally, I don't hold with analysing what fixtures are left and where each side may or may not drop points. For me, the first principle is to focus on looking after what we can control, which means winning our own games. The second is to take the games one at a time. Hardly ground-breaking stuff, I know, but reading through this thread I see plenty who don't seem able to stick to these principles.

All that matters for now is to beat Leeds. Do that and we do what's in our control, which is to put Arsenal under pressure to keep a decent foothold in the race by winning away to a Newcastle side that's lost one league game at home all season. If we slip up tomorrow, so be it (though I'll be gutted). And if Arsenal manage to do win at St James's Park after what's happened in the last month, then we'll have to say fair play to them. They'll have put a bit of pressure back on us.

Then we have a tough game at Goodison against opponents fighting for their lives between the two legs of the Madrid tie. We've coped with challenges like that before, but let's not think now about what may or may not be a good result against Everton. Before reflecting on that, let's see what we do against Leeds, what Arsenal do on Tyneside and get the match in Madrid out of the way.

TL, DR - Anyone would rather be in our position than theirs, even if it's still no foregone conclusion. However, let's just take it one game at a time and try not to expend stress worrying about other fixtures long before the event.

IMO you’re right about the most applicable outlook (yes, win our games and we take the title again - the math’s not beyond us) but wrong to come into the title race forum, especially at this point near the end of the season in a tightly balanced race, and criticise fellow blues for having the audacity to bandy their thoughts amongst each other and chew the fat on the topic.

What did expect to find in here other than a load of whataboutery and, provided that it presents itself as personal opinion, what harm does it do?

 

[petrusha]

IMO you’re right about the most applicable outlook (yes, win our games and we take the title again - the math’s not beyond us) but wrong to come into the title race forum, especially at this point near the end of the season in a tightly balanced race, and criticise fellow blues for having the audacity to bandy their thoughts amongst each other and chew the fat on the topic.

What did expect to find in here other than a load of whataboutery and, provided that it presents itself as personal opinion, what harm does it do?

As you say, it 's a forum for people to express their views. Which is why I have no compunction about voicing mine.

 

[Manchester_lalala]

Noted……expect forum pile on if we get knocked out ;)

I meant NOT. Fucking jinxed it.

 

[Stephen230]

Reasonable.

Leeds are always "enthusiastic" when they take us on and just fly into tackles like idiots. Might be more so with Sam geeing them up.

Same target as every game for me at this point - win without injuries.

Well good luck if you go for it but there’s never any value in markets like this.

Leeds have 2 reds in 34 games, which suggests the true odds are something like 16/1.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

Arteta be telling his players beat Newcastle and it will go down to the last game of the season just because of the games we have the important games!

Correct. Both us and Arsenal have THE critical fixture this weekend.

It's the last realistic window of opportunity for us to win the title in the next fortnight.

Newcastle will be more then up for it.