The Title Race 2022/23

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Brightwell Bros. said:
I feel like the xg debate goes round in circles, but no one is disputing that the final score isn't the most important stat going. But you can't tell me you've never come away from a game saying "we had so many chances to win there, how have we lost?" or "got away with one there". XG is just putting a number on those feelings. If you don't like it, ignore it. But I promise you coaching staff all find these stats useful.
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Yeah, and xG usually turns out to be rather accurate when used over a full season or beyond, which is what many have yet to realise.
 
Phoenix900000 said:
To me xG never truly reflects on the game in terms of how a team should of scored more. Like you can get loads of headers from corners and can easily pad those stats out. Again like I said in the other post you can have a low xG but can still score more than the opposition.
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xG is not really a useful indicator in the context of a single game any more than possession, or number of shots is. And it's not supposed to reflect the scoreline as you suggest, it is a statistical measure of the quality and quantity of chances created. Which is a separate but useful measure.

I think people just totally misunderstand what it is and what it is used for. Likely the media's fault as much as anyone's. People don't have debates about how useful "Shots on Target" is as a measure, xG is just another such stat. It is an objective measure of one aspect of a team's performance.

The reason it is useful (and literally every team in league football uses it) is because statistics is all about sample size. Over one game a team can easily outperform or underperform their xG - but over a long enough time horizon teams will always revert to the mean, there is nowhere to hide from the law of averages. xG is designed specifically to be the average.

It's like how you can win a few games of roulette but if you play for long enough the house always wins.

xG is used as an early warning indicator for teams, telling them if their results are really justified on the basis of their performance or if they are papering over the cracks by getting lucky. It is provably one of the best statistics for this purpose.

Luckily for us our coaching team understands this - which is why our xG has outperformed every other team in the league every single season since Pep arrived. Our success isn't lucky, it's the law of averages. In our game of roulette we are the house.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
That facet to this squad is criminally underreported. And unacknowledged by some on here, lamentably.

Their metal resolve is incredible. Eleven wins on the spin and counting. At the business end of the season. Whilst still fighting on all extant cup fronts.

Pep is a fucking genius.
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Agreed. All the talent and tactics in the world will only take you so far but for us to have become probably the best English club side ever in the last 3 or 4 seasons has taken extraordinary mental resolve.

I think it was born in that gruesome week when we lost at home to the rags in the title clincher and were cheated out of Europe by the dippers. Up until then our swashbuckling play was enough to dominate but the pain of those losses saw us add an iron fist to our velvet glove and we’ve never looked back.

14 wins on the bounce in the 18/19 run in to win the league by a point under the most extreme pressure was astonishing and showed how brutally tough these guys are mentally.
 
OccupiedPalestineBlues said:
The answer to the conundrum is that the idiots (mostly blokes not kids) who think that it’s the best thing ever to bring shame on our club and introduce a risk of points deductions by running around on the pitch like a bunch of bubble blowing telly tubbies, going oooooooh look at me in the manner of total dickheads, should just grow the fuck up and not give the FA any possible excuse to dock points or impose fines etc.
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Would it really suprise anyone though. We've done it everytime we won the title. I think we will most likely get fined but any sort of point deductions would be near impossible
 
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