The Title Race - 2023/24

[Jam Tomorrow]

We had a perfectly good goal chalked off vs Liverpool. In the Spursy game Grealish was robbed with having a chance in injury time. Palace was bad and that was the only game where there wasn't any extra influence. Wolves away was the game where we should have got the draw (the winning goalscorer was lucky to still be on the pitch). Chelsea we should have had another penalty and it was a bad error for the equaliser from Dias.

the palace penalty should never have happened as Silva was dragged back by Mateta on the touch line with the ball going straight into the area where Foden clobbered one of their players.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I know many are not fans of xG (and similar statistical assessment methods now pervasive in football analysis), and it does have it’s issues, but I do think it can be a helpful metric for benchmarking once you have 30+ games played.

What is interesting about the current xG numbers for all clubs in the league, is that we have the second highest aggregate xG (behind Liverpool), but have essentially an even xG Differential (similar to Spurs), whilst Arsenal are outperforming their xG and Liverpool are underperforming their xG. For reference, last year City, Arsenal, and Spurs were the teams that over-performed their xG, whilst Liverpool also underperformed.

It will be interesting to see if Arsenal can keep that over-performance up over the final 8 games, whether Liverpool will continue to underperform, and whether we can improve our chance conversion.

Premier League - Team Statistics

Premier League Team Statistics

www.whoscored.com

 

[supercity88]

Pretty much gone as expected so far. No team has surprised. Last night's result was probably the first decent result from one of the 3 teams.

Liverpool (67)​	Arsenal (68)​	City (67)​
Sheff United (H) ​	​	​
United (A)​	Brighton (A)​	Palace (A)​
Palace (H)​	Villa (H)​	Luton (H)​
Fulham (A)​	Wolves (A)​	Spurs (A) TBD​
Everton (A)​	Chelsea (H)​	Brighton (A)​
West Ham (A)​	Spurs (A)​	Forest (A)​
Spurs (H)​	Bournemouth (H)​	Wolves (H)​
Villa (A)​	United (A)​	Fulham (A)​
Wolves (H)​	Everton (H)​	West Ham (H)​

Corresponding teams this season:
Liverpool - 22 points from 27.
Arsenal - 15 points from 24.
City - 17 points from 24.

Basically no team is winning out but whoever does has a chance.
Liverpool favourites then us in my opinion, Arsenal's games are tough.

89 points wins it.

Some tough games there for all teams. Liverpool's looks easiest, but a run of games away from home isn't ideal. Arsenal when balancing the CL as well is going to be tough. They played Odegaard, Saliba and Gabriel against Luton so not sure when they'll get a rest! Ours looks okay. Spurs away being the standout. I think we could draw one and win the title. Plenty of twists and turns to come. Whilst many predicted Arsenal would falter last season I don't think we expected the three draws in a row they ended up with. Most of us were thinking we might be able to wrap it up by beating Brighton away in the penultimate game rather than have it done before we'd kicked off against Chelsea.

Sheffield United barely had the ball but nearly got a point last night. Every team will be fighting for every single point now. They'll defend for 100 minutes and boot the ball away if they have to. We're used to that, the other two aren't, which is why I think we tend to bear fruit at this stage of the season. From game 1 to game 38 we're trying to break down a wall of defenders whereas the other teams only get that respect from this stage of the campaign.

 

[Gone for a Burton]

5 games away,
3 at home.

 

[eboblue]

5 games away,
3 at home.

Same as dippers

 

[Crooked_rain]

That dippers run from Everton to Spurs isn't a walk in the park on paper...

Everton are shite but a it's a derby and Everton might not be safe by then. If they're fired up for a local clash and are up for the fight to stay up, then you never know.

The Villa and Spurs game worry me though. I think their 4th and 5th spots might cemented by then and the players will be thinking about Dubai instead of playing Liverpool. West Ham away is a banana skin for them in my opinion, they seem to spring an upset now and again at their place.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

I know many are not fans of xG (and similar statistical assessment methods now pervasive in football analysis), and it does have it’s issues, but I do think it can be a helpful metric for benchmarking once you have 30+ games played.

What is interesting about the current xG numbers for all clubs in the league, is that we have the second highest aggregate xG (behind Liverpool), but have essentially an even xG Differential (similar to Spurs), whilst Arsenal are outperforming their xG and Liverpool are underperforming their xG. For reference, last year City, Arsenal, and Spurs were the teams that over-performed their xG, whilst Liverpool also underperformed.

It will be interesting to see if Arsenal can keep that over-performance up over the final 8 games, whether Liverpool will continue to underperform, and whether we can improve our chance conversion.

Premier League - Team Statistics

Premier League Team Statistics

www.whoscored.com

You're brave. I have it on good authority from the Bluemoon intelligentsia that xG is... and I quote... "utter bollocks" ;)

All I'll say is there's a reason we have had the highest total xG every single season since Pep started here. It's because that's his aim, even if people want to deny that very apparent truth. That always translates into titles in the long-run. It's the law of averages.

This is the first season where it looks unlikely that we'll have the highest xG, and it's no coincidence that the title is now very much out of our hands.

 

[NLW Blue]

I'm going to make a prediction.

The team that finishes in 1st place after 38 league games will be crowned champions!.

There, I've said it and nothing you can say will change my mind.

:o)

 

[Corky]

You're brave. I have it on good authority from the Bluemoon intelligentsia that xG is... and I quote... "utter bollocks" ;)

All I'll say is there's a reason we have had the highest total xG every single season since Pep started here. It's because that's his aim, even if people want to deny that very apparent truth. That always translates into titles in the long-run. It's the law of averages.

This is the first season where it looks unlikely that we'll have the highest xG, and it's no coincidence that the title is now very much out of our hands.

Doesn't explain 2016/17 and 2019/20.

Actual goals being down this season affects us a lot more than xG being down, and we normally have the highest number of goals and goal difference too, even in 2019/20.

Although the xG gets a relative jump due to our shocking penalty record, and getting loads of xG for a penalty.

 

[RayCTID]

Cmon mate it’s not all down to conspiracies because if that’s the case Liverpool would have beat us with the 98 min penalty and would have beat arsenal hone and spurs away . We have ourselves to blame if we don’t win it .

We dominated the first half at Anfield and the second penalty was correctly not given if you look at the incident more closely. Sorry Liverpool aren't any better than us no matter how much spin you put on them.They got a few fortutious calls after the Spurs incident. Before and after that game they too were struggling.