HelloCity
Well-Known Member
I don't think this sort of logic comes into it too much.
Chelsea were poor by their standards both times they won it.
Liverpool had a crap season 2005 when they won it as well.
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The Title Race - 2024/25
- Thread starter MCFC1993
- Start date
I don't think this sort of logic comes into it too much.
Chelsea were poor by their standards both times they won it.
Liverpool had a crap season 2005 when they won it as well.
Cobwebcat
Well-Known Member
You are correct. Had we just moved there? My memory is crap these days but now you have said I can picture where I was sat. Have you ever seen a more unfair result than that!?
Cobwebcat
Well-Known Member
This is true. I think I remember reading that the strongest team lifted the trophy about 40% of the time and in the old system (just league winners) about 30%.
Brightwell Bros.
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- 1 Oct 2014
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It's not a vintage anywhere around Europe, though. There isn't a team that stands out as being really scary. Some of the Italian teams, maybe, are the best they've been for a while, but that's countered by the fact they've been on a very poor run. Bayern, the three big Spanish teams, PSG etc all have as many question marks around them as the English teams currently.
IrishBlueSince92
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Agree, its just a hunch that I have
talking of luck, or jammy last minute winners etc as we used to call them, i've had a very interesting change in perspective over the last ten years about United's long history of last second winners. I'm not referring to 'Fergie Time' which did seem to be a nefarious thing, but more that better teams score more in injury time. We're really good at it these days.
Overall our play and form is not very good but imo its down to individual form of players. Foden nowhere near to the player he was last season. we are 8 rounds in which is 20% of the PL and he is yet to score while scored 19 last season.
letting JA go after decent G+A output from him without proper replacement is bit of a shocker especially given that other aint really chipping in much apart from Haaland.
Gundo also not firing, he missed quite few big chances in earlier games now even those chances dried up for him. we made ourselves much more reliant on Haaland but at the same time we can go 90 minutes without creating fuck all for him. and then some weak shots from wingers and Gundo, Bernardo is all we have.
Rodri missing means not just defensive issues which we are seeing as clean sheets are rare these days but also speed of our build up is a bit slower which helps opponent a lot to sit back and let us pass around with not much danger in our play. we end up with a long shot or a very nothing cross. we also dont win balls high up the pitch enough due to quite weak pressing. with Savio, Doku full of energy guys I want to see some better pressing. Haaland needs to put in the work too albeit I dont like how many minutes he is getting, if we had JA around I am sure he would be subbed a few times and all those extra minutes aint helping him over the season also after being used excessively for Norway too.
then we have Lewis, which is a really strange experiment, I dont think it is working right now. he is getting into very advanced position, not an inverted fullback who comes centrally to help build ups but easily goes up to the box into number 8 position where he waits for the ball rather than doing build up, but just nothing comes off for him. he is there, but few times making a run no one picks him out, certainly creates bit of gap at the back like at the goal conceded, gets a shot very rarely. and even others dont really take advantage of Rico keeping one defender's attention.
we surely have more points than how good we played but its very early still, we will struggle vs better teams tho as we really struggle defending counters Fulham, Inter showed it, and even Brentford, Wolves punished us.
serious form improvement needed as when we get to November it will be Bournemouth away, Sporting away, Brighton away, Spurs home, and then December is pretty long annd hard with Liverpool away, Palace away, derby home, Villa away, Juventus away plus the extra Christmas games...
letting JA go after decent G+A output from him without proper replacement is bit of a shocker especially given that other aint really chipping in much apart from Haaland.
Gundo also not firing, he missed quite few big chances in earlier games now even those chances dried up for him. we made ourselves much more reliant on Haaland but at the same time we can go 90 minutes without creating fuck all for him. and then some weak shots from wingers and Gundo, Bernardo is all we have.
Rodri missing means not just defensive issues which we are seeing as clean sheets are rare these days but also speed of our build up is a bit slower which helps opponent a lot to sit back and let us pass around with not much danger in our play. we end up with a long shot or a very nothing cross. we also dont win balls high up the pitch enough due to quite weak pressing. with Savio, Doku full of energy guys I want to see some better pressing. Haaland needs to put in the work too albeit I dont like how many minutes he is getting, if we had JA around I am sure he would be subbed a few times and all those extra minutes aint helping him over the season also after being used excessively for Norway too.
then we have Lewis, which is a really strange experiment, I dont think it is working right now. he is getting into very advanced position, not an inverted fullback who comes centrally to help build ups but easily goes up to the box into number 8 position where he waits for the ball rather than doing build up, but just nothing comes off for him. he is there, but few times making a run no one picks him out, certainly creates bit of gap at the back like at the goal conceded, gets a shot very rarely. and even others dont really take advantage of Rico keeping one defender's attention.
we surely have more points than how good we played but its very early still, we will struggle vs better teams tho as we really struggle defending counters Fulham, Inter showed it, and even Brentford, Wolves punished us.
serious form improvement needed as when we get to November it will be Bournemouth away, Sporting away, Brighton away, Spurs home, and then December is pretty long annd hard with Liverpool away, Palace away, derby home, Villa away, Juventus away plus the extra Christmas games...
Good to pick up wins while Pep's still figuring things out.
Our record after eight games in every Pep season:
16/17: W6 L1 D1 (19 points)
17/18: W7 D1 L0 (22 points)
18/19: W6 D2 L0 (20 points)
19/20: W5 D1 L2 (16 points)
20/21: W3 D3 L2 (12 points)
21/22: W5 D2 L1 (17 points)
22/23: W6 D2 L0 (20 points)
23/24: W6 D0 L2 (18 points)
24/25: W6 D2 L0 (20 points)
So we're performing just above average (18.2) at the moment.
However, more often than not, it's usually between November and February when things look their ropiest.
Our seasons tend to move in slightly unbalanced thirds under Pep. The First 10 games tends to see us looking a mixture of our best and our worst but we tend to pick up enough points. The Middle 15 games can be up and down depending on the season (slightly down or VERY up), as Pep's original ideas for the team get tweaked and changed over Christmas - this tends to be when it's decided if we're going to be fighting for the title or just the top four come May. Then the final 13 games are when we've got a target in our sights, whether it's a PL title or top four.
So I broke each of the last five seasons down into those "unbalanced thirds". (I've attached graphs as well just to visualise the data a bit easier).
Basically: we're doing okay. The Middle 15 games of the season will decide what target we have in our sights come the first week of March. The Final 13 games will get us over the line either in terms of chasing a title or a Champions League spot. But so far, under Pep, we have ALWAYS won the title after getting 20 points from our first eight games.
Our record after eight games in every Pep season:
16/17: W6 L1 D1 (19 points)
17/18: W7 D1 L0 (22 points)
18/19: W6 D2 L0 (20 points)
19/20: W5 D1 L2 (16 points)
20/21: W3 D3 L2 (12 points)
21/22: W5 D2 L1 (17 points)
22/23: W6 D2 L0 (20 points)
23/24: W6 D0 L2 (18 points)
24/25: W6 D2 L0 (20 points)
So we're performing just above average (18.2) at the moment.
However, more often than not, it's usually between November and February when things look their ropiest.
Our seasons tend to move in slightly unbalanced thirds under Pep. The First 10 games tends to see us looking a mixture of our best and our worst but we tend to pick up enough points. The Middle 15 games can be up and down depending on the season (slightly down or VERY up), as Pep's original ideas for the team get tweaked and changed over Christmas - this tends to be when it's decided if we're going to be fighting for the title or just the top four come May. Then the final 13 games are when we've got a target in our sights, whether it's a PL title or top four.
So I broke each of the last five seasons down into those "unbalanced thirds". (I've attached graphs as well just to visualise the data a bit easier).
19/20
First 10 - 22 points (74%)
Middle 15 - 29 points (65%)
Final 13 - 30 points (77%) Out of the title race early.
View attachment 135721
20/21
First 10 - 18 points (60%)
Middle 15 - 41 points (92%)
Final 13 - 27 points (70%) Won the league early.
21/22
First 10 - 20 points (67%)
Middle 15 - 43 points (96%)
Final 13 - 30 points (77%) Went down to the last day.
22/23
First 10 - 23 points (77%)
Middle 15 - 32 points (72%)
Final 13 - 34 points (88%) Won the league early.
23/24
First 10 - 24 points (80%)
Middle 15 - 32 points (72%)
Final 13 - 35 points (90%) Went down to the last day.
In the First 10 games of the season, City (on average) tend to pick up around 70% of the points available to us (that number jumps up to 75% if you take out the disastrous start to the 20/21 pandemic season, however).
Then in the Middle15, this period of the season tends to veer significantly one way or the other: results either trend down from the First 10 games (down 11% in 19-20, down 5% in 22-23, down 8% in 23-24), or they trend up so high that a massive points total or Premier League title is all but set by gameweek 25 (up 32% in 20-21, up 29% in 21-22).
In every season that the Middle 15 period trends lower than the First 10 period, however, the Last 13 games always improve (up 12% in 19-20, up 16% in 22-23, up 18% in 23-24). And in seasons where the Middle 15 trends significantly up, the Last 13 period stays consistently at or above 70%.
First 10 - 22 points (74%)
Middle 15 - 29 points (65%)
Final 13 - 30 points (77%) Out of the title race early.
View attachment 135721
20/21
First 10 - 18 points (60%)
Middle 15 - 41 points (92%)
Final 13 - 27 points (70%) Won the league early.
21/22
First 10 - 20 points (67%)
Middle 15 - 43 points (96%)
Final 13 - 30 points (77%) Went down to the last day.
22/23
First 10 - 23 points (77%)
Middle 15 - 32 points (72%)
Final 13 - 34 points (88%) Won the league early.
23/24
First 10 - 24 points (80%)
Middle 15 - 32 points (72%)
Final 13 - 35 points (90%) Went down to the last day.
In the First 10 games of the season, City (on average) tend to pick up around 70% of the points available to us (that number jumps up to 75% if you take out the disastrous start to the 20/21 pandemic season, however).
Then in the Middle15, this period of the season tends to veer significantly one way or the other: results either trend down from the First 10 games (down 11% in 19-20, down 5% in 22-23, down 8% in 23-24), or they trend up so high that a massive points total or Premier League title is all but set by gameweek 25 (up 32% in 20-21, up 29% in 21-22).
In every season that the Middle 15 period trends lower than the First 10 period, however, the Last 13 games always improve (up 12% in 19-20, up 16% in 22-23, up 18% in 23-24). And in seasons where the Middle 15 trends significantly up, the Last 13 period stays consistently at or above 70%.
Basically: we're doing okay. The Middle 15 games of the season will decide what target we have in our sights come the first week of March. The Final 13 games will get us over the line either in terms of chasing a title or a Champions League spot. But so far, under Pep, we have ALWAYS won the title after getting 20 points from our first eight games.
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RACHACE
Well-Known Member
Judging the team in the first 3 or 4 months of the season isn't something I do. September, October and November all have those ridiculous international breaks so momentum and chemistry within the team are regularly interrupted. You can throw in injuries to key players like KDB last season and Rodri this too.
The time to really start judging is once we hit say mid December. The fixture list is usually packed and we've had a good 4 or 5 weeks playing regularly with no interuption.
Until then, my opinion is that if we're getting the results, that's enough for me. Especially game 1 after an international break. The performances will likely improve once this period of interuption from international breaks ends.
The time to really start judging is once we hit say mid December. The fixture list is usually packed and we've had a good 4 or 5 weeks playing regularly with no interuption.
Until then, my opinion is that if we're getting the results, that's enough for me. Especially game 1 after an international break. The performances will likely improve once this period of interuption from international breaks ends.