The Title Race - 2024/25

[Cobwebcat]

There’s no such thing as luck.

Much like karma, omens, signs, destiny, fate, jinxes, hoodoos, curses and magic… luck doesn’t exist.

What people describe as ‘luck’ is just preparation meeting opportunity. If you never give up and work hard until the end of the game to score the winner, there is a possibility it will happen.

I do agree though, there’s nothing about us outside that work ethic that makes us look like a team that would usually win the league. We look so far behind the quality of our football we used to have in either the 2017-18 Centurions season or the 2018-19 Fourmidables season, and we look nowhere near the goal threat we did then.

It is understandable when our ideal starting midfield of Rodri, Foden and de Bruyne aren’t starting games and looking back to then our starting midfield was Fernandinho, DSilva and de Bruyne. Due to players being out it’s currently Kovačić, Gündoğan and BSilva who - despite being similar in age to Fernandinho and DSilva from 2017 to 2019 - are all looking like their best years are well behind them.

But there’s something else that feels like it’s missing and that’s an abundance of creators and goal scorers. Our biggest goal threats outside Haaland are currently Kovačić, Gvardiol and Stones (none of which are even attacking players). When we used to have Agüero, Jesus, Sterling, Mahrez, Sané, de Bruyne, DSilva and a younger Gündoğan… who all contributed to goal threats.

Doku, Savinho and current Gündoğan simply aren’t doing enough. Grealish is looking like a bigger goal creating and scoring threat in cameos at the end of games (Arsenal at home, yesterday) than those three combined from starting games.

A number of windows where we’ve brought in players no better or not as good as our challengers have, has seen us level out with them now.

However, de Bruyne and Foden will be back playing soon and we have one thing over all the other teams in Pep that still sets us apart, so there’s still a chance that it’ll click when they are back in the team in good form.

To answer the OP’s question, I feel like this will be a close and lower points achieving season at the top than we’ve seen for many of the seasons under Pep. Say, 85 points for the winner, because I just don’t think there are any special teams at the moment and I think all the top sides will drop points against more teams than we usually would.

Apologies but I only got as far as your top line.

There is a thing called luck it describes an improbable event.

Football is a great example as it’s a low scoring game. A long time ago I went to City v Bolton at the Etihad. Never seen anything like it and perhaps others on here remember it. I don’t have the figures so I’m guessing but City had about 30 shots to Bolton’s 1. We hit the post 3 times and hit the bar twice. It was cleared of the line numerous times, once by one of our own players I think. In the last seconds Bolton were awarded a penalty, scored and won with their only shot. Typical City if ever there was a game!

Given everything that had happened, Bolton winning was extremely improbable.

Every footy club now has a data analytics department. One of the first things they do is look at performance v result. The difference between what should have happened (and therefore more likely to happen in the future) and the actual result is luck.

Some people understood this earlier than others and made a lot of money from predicting future results by stripping the luck, as much as they could, out of the result.

So far this season City have been more lucky than they have for a while. All this means is if we carry on with their current level of performance, we will start to drop more points than we have so far. Of course that might not happen as Pep could quite easily improve our performance levels.

But there is such a thing as luck.

 

[IrishBlueSince92]

Anyone taking Liverpool serious yet in this title race?

Slot has had a good start and has made a mockery of the accolades thrown onto Klopp for having Liverpool in the top 3 until they fell away in April - "ohhh hasn't he done so well in competing up until now"

The funny thing about Liverpool under Klopp was their fans would argue all day that half of their team were the best in the world in their positions, yet simultaneously it was a Leicester winning the league type achievement to have them challenging for the odd title.

 

[Mancity1980]

i don’t think it is a particularly strong league this season, so the fact we aren’t as good as last season won’t matter. What will matter is our experience, so I reckon we are on for an unconvincing 5peat.

 

[DiscoSteve]

In the last seconds Bolton were awarded a penalty, scored and won with their only shot. Typical City if ever there was a game!

Who beat us at the Etihad with NO shots on goal one time? I think it was Pierce era. Sun Ji Hai scored an own goal, the only goal of the game.

 

[WickyWain]

Who beat us at the Etihad with NO shots on goal one time? I think it was Pierce era. Sun Ji Hai scored an own goal, the only goal of the game.

Middlesbrough

 

[IrishBlueSince92]

i don’t think it is a particularly strong league this season, so the fact we aren’t as good as last season won’t matter. What will matter is our experience, so I reckon we are on for an unconvincing 5peat.

Was thinking the same yesterday.

I don't think an English team will get near winning the CL this year.

 

[shemnel]

Apologies but I only got as far as your top line.

There is a thing called luck it describes an improbable event.

Football is a great example as it’s a low scoring game. A long time ago (I’m guessing 1990’s) I went to City v Bolton at Maine Road. Never seen anything like it and perhaps others on here remember it. I don’t have the figures so I’m guessing but City had about 30 shots to Bolton’s 1. We hit the post 3 times and hit the bar twice. It was cleared of the line numerous times, once by one of our own players I think. In the last seconds Bolton were awarded a penalty, scored and won with their only shot. Typical City if ever there was a game!

Given everything that had happened, Bolton winning was extremely improbable.

Every footy club now has a data analytics department. One of the first things they do is look at performance v result. The difference between what should have happened (and therefore more likely to happen in the future) and the actual result is luck.

Some people understood this earlier than others and made a lot of money from predicting future results by stripping the luck, as much as they could, out of the result.

So far this season City have been more lucky than they have for a while. All this means is if we carry on with their current level of performance, we will start to drop more points than we have so far. Of course that might not happen as Pep could quite easily improve our performance levels.

But there is such a thing as luck.

this probably isnt the thread for this, but all you are doing is labelling the improbable outcome as 'luck' (which you state), but equally you could say that calling it luck is superfluous, it happens occasionally, mathematically.

 

[lancs blue]

Football is a great example as it’s a low scoring game. A long time ago (I’m guessing 1990’s) I went to City v Bolton at Maine Road. Never seen anything like it and perhaps others on here remember it. I don’t have the figures so I’m guessing but City had about 30 shots to Bolton’s 1. We hit the post 3 times and hit the bar twice. It was cleared of the line numerous times, once by one of our own players I think. In the last seconds Bolton were awarded a penalty, scored and won with their only shot. Typical City if ever there was a game!

That was at CoMS, not Maine Rd, Dunnie gave the pen away, handball.

 

[SWPISHOME]

Was thinking the same yesterday.

I don't think an English team will get near winning the CL this year.

It's still early days, The Euros being last summer and International Football breaking up the season every 3 weeks isn't helping any team as it's hard to get momentum going.

I think we'll see teams improve as the season goes on and less International Football. Going across other leagues, Real Madrid have looked way off it, Barcelona aren't what they once were, Bayern Munich aren't playing well ect

I think most teams in Europe will want to avoid the English teams and Real Madrid possibly throw Inter Milan into that equation. Nobody will want to play City and they also won't want Liverpool as they normally turn up in this competition.

 

[Cobwebcat]

this probably isnt the thread for this, but all you are doing is labelling the improbable outcome as 'luck' (which you state), but equally you could say that calling it luck is superfluous, it happens occasionally, mathematically.

That’s true of course but certainly in the field of footy analytics that is exactly how it is referred to and meets my general usage definition as in “they were lucky to win today”