The Title Race - 2024/25

[IrishBlueSince92]

The way I see it now, which flip flops from week to week.

Pre the Rodri injury and the way we started the season I thought we'd win the league at a canter.

After the Rodri injury happened I didn't think we'd win it and that Arsenal would.

A few weeks on, we've grinded out two wins against opposition that we should be beating comfortably. I know some will say that we lost yesterday's same fixture last season, but you get my point.
We gave up plenty of chances in those two games, particularly the first one.

So I think that we may get away with the loss of Rodri in most of the games against the supposed weaker sides, but it'll be very hard to do against the top sides.
Unless Pep comes up with something between now and January before he can buy.

 

[KingGeorge]

Was thinking the same yesterday.

I don't think an English team will get near winning the CL this year.

The thought has crossed my mind as well. When Rodri went down I thought we are probably out of Champions league contention and I don’t see Liverpool or Arsenal winning it.

Upon further reflection I’m just not sure how to factor in the new Champions League format. The lack of two legs creates a scenario where maybe somebody has just enough to beat Madrid. Let’s say Inter flukes a 1-0 win over Madrid creating an opening for us. Maybe we get a lucky break and a door opens.

 

[wattle]

The thought has crossed my mind as well. When Rodri went down I thought we are probably out of Champions league contention and I don’t see Liverpool or Arsenal winning it.

Upon further reflection I’m just not sure how to factor in the new Champions League format. The lack of two legs creates a scenario where maybe somebody has just enough to beat Madrid. Let’s say Inter flukes a 1-0 win over Madrid creating an opening for us. Maybe we get a lucky break and a door opens.

Are you sure this is a thing. As far as I know the knockout stages are still two legs

 

[M23 Citizen]

Overall our play and form is not very good but imo its down to individual form of players. Foden nowhere near to the player he was last season. we are 8 rounds in which is 20% of the PL and he is yet to score while scored 19 last season.
letting JA go after decent G+A output from him without proper replacement is bit of a shocker especially given that other aint really chipping in much apart from Haaland.
Gundo also not firing, he missed quite few big chances in earlier games now even those chances dried up for him. we made ourselves much more reliant on Haaland but at the same time we can go 90 minutes without creating fuck all for him. and then some weak shots from wingers and Gundo, Bernardo is all we have.

Rodri missing means not just defensive issues which we are seeing as clean sheets are rare these days but also speed of our build up is a bit slower which helps opponent a lot to sit back and let us pass around with not much danger in our play. we end up with a long shot or a very nothing cross. we also dont win balls high up the pitch enough due to quite weak pressing. with Savio, Doku full of energy guys I want to see some better pressing. Haaland needs to put in the work too albeit I dont like how many minutes he is getting, if we had JA around I am sure he would be subbed a few times and all those extra minutes aint helping him over the season also after being used excessively for Norway too.

then we have Lewis, which is a really strange experiment, I dont think it is working right now. he is getting into very advanced position, not an inverted fullback who comes centrally to help build ups but easily goes up to the box into number 8 position where he waits for the ball rather than doing build up, but just nothing comes off for him. he is there, but few times making a run no one picks him out, certainly creates bit of gap at the back like at the goal conceded, gets a shot very rarely. and even others dont really take advantage of Rico keeping one defender's attention.

we surely have more points than how good we played but its very early still, we will struggle vs better teams tho as we really struggle defending counters Fulham, Inter showed it, and even Brentford, Wolves punished us.

serious form improvement needed as when we get to November it will be Bournemouth away, Sporting away, Brighton away, Spurs home, and then December is pretty long annd hard with Liverpool away, Palace away, derby home, Villa away, Juventus away plus the extra Christmas games...

We’d be a completely different outfit if we had a fit and firing Rodri, de Bruyne and Foden in midfield. Take the starting midfield out of any team at any level of football and it’ll impact them massively.

Hopefully two will be back doing it together by the end of this month.

Only thing is, there were previous years where Fernandinho, DSilva and de Bruyne were our main midfield three and even if they were out we’d have a 28 year old Gündoğan and 26 year old BSilva to step in.

Whereas now we have those same two players to step in but they are older and past their prime players who aren’t as sharp or fit as they were (same with Kovačić) and you can see it in the way we play. The middle of the pitch hasn’t been sharp enough this season which is why we haven’t played particularly well or been massively convincing winners of a game since Ipswich at home, by far the worst team we’ve played.

All I can say is thank fuck for Gvardiol and Stones… oh, and Ederson who has made huge saves at crucial times this season (another at 1-0 yesterday!)… and really looking forward to Foden and de Bruyne get back to full fitness and form. I’m sure the way we play will change with those two back.

 

[KingGeorge]

Are you sure this is a thing. As far as I know the knockout stages are still two legs

Yeah looks like you are right there are still two legs.

 

[M23 Citizen]

The thought has crossed my mind as well. When Rodri went down I thought we are probably out of Champions league contention and I don’t see Liverpool or Arsenal winning it.

Upon further reflection I’m just not sure how to factor in the new Champions League format. The lack of two legs creates a scenario where maybe somebody has just enough to beat Madrid. Let’s say Inter flukes a 1-0 win over Madrid creating an opening for us. Maybe we get a lucky break and a door opens.

The CL is a funny one. Over the years a number of teams have shown that you don’t have to be anywhere near the best team to win it or get to the final to give yourself a chance of winning it.

In 2021, Chelsea were not as good as any of Atlético, Madrid or City yet beat all three to win it yet finished a distant 4th in the PL. Spurs finished 5th in the PL but knocked City out and got to a final. Dortmund last season got to a final. Chelsea won it in 2012 with their worst side for a decade and Roberto Di Matteo as coach and finished 5th in the PL. Even Liverpool in 2005, they had some great players but an average overall squad and only finished 5th in the PL. Porto and Monaco final in 2004 when teams like Arsenal’s Invincibles and the Madrid’s Galacticos were around.

How many times have we been the best team in Europe and not even got tot the semis, never mind the final or win it?

[still two-leg KOs, by the way]

 

[Cobwebcat]

talking of luck, or jammy last minute winners etc as we used to call them, i've had a very interesting change in perspective over the last ten years about United's long history of last second winners. I'm not referring to 'Fergie Time' which did seem to be a nefarious thing, but more that better teams score more in injury time. We're really good at it these days.

Yes I agree. I think what happens is the opposition gets tired having had limited possession.

 

[M23 Citizen]

talking of luck, or jammy last minute winners etc as we used to call them, i've had a very interesting change in perspective over the last ten years about United's long history of last second winners. I'm not referring to 'Fergie Time' which did seem to be a nefarious thing, but more that better teams score more in injury time. We're really good at it these days.

Concentration affected by fatigue, sharpness and agility/strength in the legs affected by fatigue, players switch off, make mistakes, find themselves out of position after a game of having to be right on it against an attacking team having to defend and concentrate fully all game.

That’s why I’d always like to have an attack-minded coach first and foremost. Whoever ends up replacing Pep (hopefully in about 2028!), I’d like to always be attack first.

 

[M23 Citizen]

Apologies but I only got as far as your top line.

There is a thing called luck it describes an improbable event.

Football is a great example as it’s a low scoring game. A long time ago I went to City v Bolton at the Etihad. Never seen anything like it and perhaps others on here remember it. I don’t have the figures so I’m guessing but City had about 30 shots to Bolton’s 1. We hit the post 3 times and hit the bar twice. It was cleared of the line numerous times, once by one of our own players I think. In the last seconds Bolton were awarded a penalty, scored and won with their only shot. Typical City if ever there was a game!

Given everything that had happened, Bolton winning was extremely improbable.

Every footy club now has a data analytics department. One of the first things they do is look at performance v result. The difference between what should have happened (and therefore more likely to happen in the future) and the actual result is luck.

Some people understood this earlier than others and made a lot of money from predicting future results by stripping the luck, as much as they could, out of the result.

So far this season City have been more lucky than they have for a while. All this means is if we carry on with their current level of performance, we will start to drop more points than we have so far. Of course that might not happen as Pep could quite easily improve our performance levels.

But there is such a thing as luck.

I just don’t believe in it.

For me everything happens by the coincidence of circumstances coming together by chance. The ball is a sphere and, due to physics and anatomy, can bounce in many different ways on the adverse camber of the pitch, the bodies and limbs of players or the post/bar and players can choose or not choose to do certain things at certain times or make mistakes.

From minute one to ninety, anything can happen, but it’s just by chance rather than luck. Luck to me would be a stroke of fortune that happens where there can’t be an explanation. Which pretty much rules out everything in the laws of physics because pretty much everything (especially on a football pitch) can have an explanation for why it’s happened.

 

[citymad]

I just don’t believe in it.

For me everything happens by the coincidence of circumstances coming together by chance. The ball is a sphere and, due to physics and anatomy, can bounce in many different ways on the adverse camber of the pitch, the bodies and limbs of players or the post/bar and players can choose or not choose to do certain things at certain times or make mistakes.

From minute one to ninety, anything can happen, but it’s just by chance rather than luck. Luck to me would be a stroke of fortune that happens where there can’t be an explanation. Which pretty much rules out everything in the laws of physics because pretty much everything (especially on a football pitch) can have an explanation for why it’s happened.

I get the physics and all that but what would you call it if you found an unused winning lottery ticket on the ground in the middle of the high street?