I wished I shared your optimism.
The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)
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given what i've seen on the pitch for the last few months, going unbeaten for 9 games, with 6 wins, is hugely optimistic!! but fair play to you
supercity88
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I've had a look at the remaining games of teams from Forest down to Brentford. Looking at the home and away league tables I've then ranked the teams to get an average league position of the remaining games for each team. It's obviously very high level but a bit more accurate as it does take into how a team performs at home or away.
We're the 6th best team at home and the 9th away. Liverpool, Arsenal and Forest are the top 3 in both. I think we will be seeing Forest in the CL next season barring a real cliff dive.
9.11 Fulham
9.55 Villa/Brentford
10.22 Chelsea
10.6 Newcastle
11.66 Brighton
12.22 Bournemouth
13 City
13.11 Forest
Based on this we have a very good chance of getting the results we need to finish in the top 4/5.
Leicester (19th), Rags (12th), Palace (7th), Everton (13th), Villa (14th), Wolves (17th), Saints (20th), Bournemouth (5th), Fulham (10th).
We're the 6th best team at home and the 9th away. Liverpool, Arsenal and Forest are the top 3 in both. I think we will be seeing Forest in the CL next season barring a real cliff dive.
9.11 Fulham
9.55 Villa/Brentford
10.22 Chelsea
10.6 Newcastle
11.66 Brighton
12.22 Bournemouth
13 City
13.11 Forest
Based on this we have a very good chance of getting the results we need to finish in the top 4/5.
Leicester (19th), Rags (12th), Palace (7th), Everton (13th), Villa (14th), Wolves (17th), Saints (20th), Bournemouth (5th), Fulham (10th).
What do the numbers represent?
supercity88
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Where they rank in the home or away table pal. Get a more accurate picture of things then generally as there are quite big variations between the two.
Palace have been much better away from home. You'd look at the table and maybe think it's easier than it actually is based on their results so far. Similarly Villa have been much better at home than away. Gives a bit more context to the difficulty of games in my opinion.
Was bored at work, can you tell!
Buckshaw Blue
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I’d be gobsmacked to see him back before the end of the season. More likely to have some game time at the club world cup ahead of next season.
Millwallawayveteran1988
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Does it take form into account though? We were good away at the start of the season but have been shite since November.
WesthoughtonJohn
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Talk is about it currently.
Personally don't want to see him before the start of next season - that applies to the abomination that is the club world cup.
Marvin.
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I would like to see him playing and trust the medical staff to get his rehab. right.
Yes
WesthoughtonJohn
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Oh I agree - recently we seem to have an issue with the second bit though eh
supercity88
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It's just the overall position this season mate, not form. We are the 6th best side at home, 9th away from home. That reflects our results to date. Clearly Everton are a better side now than under Dyche so form is relevant too but I've seen a lot about our games being "easier on paper" than others and based on who we play and where, we have pretty good fixtures compared to our rivals.
So many teams are in this race, and playing each other at various points that there will be a fair amount of twists and turns.
Millwallawayveteran1988
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Personally I still think we will be ok but it’s been a hideous drop off so it’s not going to be without drama. To be honest Chelsea should be miles ahead of us but they seem even worse than us at the moment.
Newcastle will finish above us for me but I’m still not sure about Forest. I think we will just get 4th or 5th but the points haul will be less than 65.
The FA cup is anyone’s guess. Fortunately most of the top teams are out but I would say any of the others could beat us on their day other than Preston. Only experience and their lack of is in our favour.
gordondaviesmoustache
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Think we’ll finish top five and win the Cup, most likely, and if we do that will represent, in the circumstances, a very good season. I refuse to grade any season where we qualify for the CL and win a cup competition as anything less.
Even if we finish 5th and go out of the FA Cup to Bournemouth, in the semis or lose in the final, it’ll still be a good season considering the circumstances.
I expected a drop-off this season. Watching the documentary about last season, you could see that there was a drop-off from the treble season even then. But Pep wrote these words on a wall in the CFA and last season was all about breaking that record, even though you could see we were already starting to slide.
We only won 3 games out of 10 against the other teams in the top six and 8 games out of 18 against the teams in the top half as a whole, last season. We were nothing like we were the year before against Madrid in the CL nor United in the FA Cup final.
But we did get that record fourth league title in a row over the line! And I think it took so much out of us after the treble the season before, that there’s been a massive comedown this season, and there would have been even if everyone had stayed fit this season.
However, we couldn’t be any further away from everyone having stayed fit this season:
Bobb missed 44 games all comps / 29 PL
Rodri 42 all / 27 PL
Aké 27 all / 19 PL
Stones 24 all / 18 PL
Grealish 19 all / 13 PL
Doku 18 all / 9 PL
Dias 16 all / 11 PL
Ederson 16 all / 10 PL
De Bruyne 15 all / 9 PL (and of the 30 games he has played, he’s not started in 13 of them)
Akanji 14 all / 9 PL
Foden 6 all / 5 PL (only started 2 of our first 10 games and has been off it all season)
Look at De Bruyne, Gündoğan, Kovačić and Bernardo Silva’s quality compared to the past, their legs have gone and they look like they’ve come to their end. When we once had all of those in their prime, minus Kovačić but plus David Silva and Fernandinho… as well as Rodri!
With these having taken a slide as they get to the end of their careers, and losing the likes of Mahrez and Palmer recently too, our output in creativity has nose dived massively. We have no proper naturally creative players in the squad who are playing regularly and will have a long future here anymore.
This needs urgently addressing!
Rodri deservedly won the Ballon d’Or, he’s been our best player for probably all of our previous three seasons to this one, and we’ve seen him for just 156 minutes all season.
Look at Savinho, Doku, Lewis, Nunes, Ortega-Moreno, McAtee, Simpson-Pusey, Reis, Khusanov, Marmoush and Nico (less so O’Reilly, Mubana and Braithwaite but they have featured in Cup games) who have had to deputise or be bought to plug gaps this season… they’re all either young, new signings - and either or both means inexperienced - or they’re back-ups. This means the quality and experience of who’s playing regularly is nowhere near our usual standard.
Look at the team who faced Brighton the other day: only Dias, Gündoğan and Haaland started the game who were part of our best team just 20 months ago.
There’s been no continuity at the back. No Ederson (and even when he has played he’s not been at his brilliant best from previous seasons, despite 3 assists) for much of the season is huge to the way we play, Aké Stones Dias and Akanji all being injured a lot, and our so-called club captain Walker deserting his team mid-season.
At Brighton and Sporting away, our back six was Ortega-Moreno, Lewis, Walker, Simpson-Pusey, Gvardiol and Kovačić. If everyone was fit, only Gvardiol would get in that back 6 and that’s over half the team.
Plus I do think the dragging on of the 115 charges case is impacting everyone at the club and in the stands. Everyone just wants it over with now. It’s tiring!
All of that would impact any team. Put that sort of thing on us in 2017-18 and we wouldn’t have got 100 points, in 2018-19 and we wouldn’t have won the domestic quadruple, in 2022-23 and we wouldn’t have won the treble, and that in any of our four league titles in a row seasons and we wouldn’t have won them.
So, any sort of positive achievement this season represents a good season in my eyes.
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supercity88
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The key point is that we are in a good position to finish in the top 4 or 5 with favourable fixtures compared to our rivals.
Chelsea have had some easier games recently. Their fixtures are tougher moving forwards so they could easily slide.
I've always felt that Villa and Newcastle are the main threats. Forest I thought would drop, I'm less sure now on that. But Villa have a lot of games to play so their results might not pick up in time.
We will be okay. I would rather the FA Cup and Europa League personally anyway, but I think we have a better chance of qualifying for the CL than winning the cup unless we find a more consistent performance.
Those 2 Chelsea wins could be our life saver.
Had we lost to them we'd be 12 points worse off now than we are compared to Chelsea.
The same with Newcastle.
Blue_Lightsaber
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That derby that we gift wrapped still pisses me off. That could be a huge 3 points if we fail to get there!