The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)

Will we make the top 5?

  • Total voters
    1,364
  • Poll closed .
Prophet of Doom said:
Have you actually looked at the fixtures ? We will be 7th when kick off against Bournemouth. Love to know how you work out we get top 5 by not winning another game !
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Have you actually looked at the fixtures? You're assuming that the rest DO win their other matches which is no guarantee.

The fact that Forest have just drawn with Leicester emphasises the point, they would now need to win both their remaining matches if we lost both of ours to overtake us and they would have to beat Chelsea to do that which then means that we finish above Chelsea.

Both Chelsea AND Forest cannot finish above us if we win one more match, while even if we drew the next match Villa need to win one and get at least a draw in the other game to finish above us, by my reckoning.

And that's assuming Newcastle and Arsenal don't get dragged back into it bearing in mind they both have to play each other - Arse 0-2 down at Anfield as I type. We could win just one and finish second. Unlikely but no more unlikely than us not finishing in the top 5. The permutations will see us through, teams around us taking points off each other.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
Assuming every game goes perfectly to form is the reason people have continuously been re-adjusting down how many points we need. That's not how this league works - people drop points unexpectedly every single week.

Also, if your scenario comes out perfectly like that, then Arsenal might need to be more worried than us.
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Exactly why those opta predictions are so pointless.
 
bluenova said:
Indeed - Southampton were in 17th place when, arguably our best ever team only just beat them with pretty much the last kick of the game.
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That Southampton side had three times the points that this current one has, so quite a different proposition I would suggest.

Arsenal will beat them by three or four.
 
robbieh said:
Well. How about teams that while not being consistent have shown glimpses of quality.

We've just been consistently poor. What has got us where we are is a certain level of experience. However the football has been very uninspiring.
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Glimpses of quality, jesus … so do Leicester qualify thanks to a delicate Jamie Vardy chip over the keeper for a consolation goal in an away mauling

I prefer the results based system where teams who accrue enough points to finish in the top 5 deserve their spot
 
Etihad said:
Exactly why those opta predictions are so pointless.
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For any one single game, I agree they're not really particularly helpful - but as with all expected stats, the more time that passes, the more teams will always revert to the mean. Their expected points prediction for the second half of this season has proven to be an order of magnitude more accurate than the people in this thread who not even a month ago were saying we'd need about 75 points.
 
I've given up trying to predict it, there's still twists and turns to come.

Hopefully Spurs win the European Carabao Cup (obviously) but can the rags then just roll over for Villa at home a few days later. If the rags win it, they won't care.

Arsenal v Newcastle is taking on more significance for Arsenal and Forest playing Chelsea last game helps.

We just need to beat Bournemouth and then see what's needed against Fulham.
 
chaddblue said:
Assuming Villa win both their games v Spurs and Rags... and assuming Newcastle win both their games v Arsenal and Everton, it all hinges on the Forest v Chelsea match

If Forest win.... then 3 points will guarantee top 5

If its a draw... then 2 points will guarantee top 5.... unless Chelsea beat the Rags by 5 or more goals, in which case we'll need 3 points

If Chelsea win... then 4 points will be required

Of course if Villa and/or Newcastle drop points we might need less
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Chelsea been really fortunate in the run in - Liverpool for some reason rested their midfield last week - will play Utd before the Europa final where no doubt they will rest a load - and play Forest last who might be out of it anyway.
 
My final table prediction is
2. Arsenal 72 pts
3. City. 71 pts
4. Newcastle 70 pts
5. Villa 69 pts
6. Chelsea 67 pts
7. Forrest 64 pts
 
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coolcity said:
Have you actually looked at the fixtures? You're assuming that the rest DO win their other matches which is no guarantee.

The fact that Forest have just drawn with Leicester emphasises the point, they would now need to win both their remaining matches if we lost both of ours to overtake us and they would have to beat Chelsea to do that which then means that we finish above Chelsea.

Both Chelsea AND Forest cannot finish above us if we win one more match, while even if we drew the next match Villa need to win one and get at least a draw in the other game to finish above us, by my reckoning.

And that's assuming Newcastle and Arsenal don't get dragged back into it bearing in mind they both have to play each other - Arse 0-2 down at Anfield as I type. We could win just one and finish second. Unlikely but no more unlikely than us not finishing in the top 5. The permutations will see us through, teams around us taking points off each other.
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Just to add to that, with Arse losing today, if we win one more and Arsenal lose to Newcastle (every chance), they still need a point from their final match to finish above us. That's going to be a very nervous final match for them if they need something from it.
 
4pts clinches it as that certainly eliminates Forest on pts, and Villa on GD

Villa will win out as they've got Spurs and United to play so 69pts in the clubhouse in the marker really.

We will be 6th next time we kick a ball in the league as next weekend Chelsea are playing United who are shit, and Villa are playing Spurs who are also shit. However a win against Bournemouth puts us in a strong position.

Yesterdays brain fart does ensure we will need something at Fulham on the final day - the way we've played this season, still throwing in performances like yesterday, there's no reason to have full confidence in this squad. None of us know what team will turn up - either at Wembley next week or in the final 2 league games. We can hold our nose and hope for the best.
 
pavelsrnicek said:
We need 4 points. Chelsea losing earlier means they either get a maximum of 69 points and Forest get 67 or Chelsea get 66 and Forest 70. If we finish level with Villa our goal difference gets us ahead.

It’s less likely we qualify with 68 points, the only really likely scenario that happens is a Forest and Chelsea draw and we finish ahead of Forest on goal difference with Chelsea on 67 points. Villa are unlikely to drop points against Spurs and united.
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Yes but you're forgetting that Arsenal have to play Newcastle yet so with them losing today (as it stands), and if they lose that it''s going to be a very nervous final match for them at Southampton, who (you would hope at least) will want to give their fans a good send-off after getting a point against us. If we win one both Chelsea and Forest cannot finish above us, it's one or the other and Arsenal may still need another point to finish above us.
 
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