The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)

[lasereyes]

Yep, we're 1/25 on Betfair. The odds don't lie and it would be the biggest last day upset for many years if we don't make top five.

Would quite like to see Villa beat the rags though, and Spuds get a point at home to Brighton, rags finishing 17th would be even funnier than the Spuds finishing 17th.

Fuck Villa. Scum draw with Villa. Spurs beat Brighton. Forest beat Chelsea. Scum finish 17th, no CL for Villa. And the beauty will be that defeat at Etihad cost them

 

[SWP's back]

Naivety not optimism, pay attention weirdo.

You’re the mad old **** getting his panties in a twist because some people quite rightly believe it’s incredibly unlikely that four results all go against us at once.

Whether I or GDM or anyone will be watching with relative insouciance on Sunday makes no odds to the results, or in particular, you. But we will enjoy the experience a great deal more than you by the sounds of it.

Why is it of a particular annoyance to you that other fans are sanguine? How does it affect you?

 

[johnny crossan]

You’re the mad old **** getting his panties in a twist because some people quite rightly believe it’s incredibly unlikely that four results all go against us at once.

Whether I or GDM or anyone will be watching with relative insouciance on Sunday makes no odds to the results, or in particular, you. But we will enjoy the experience a great deal more than you by the sounds of it.

Why is it of a particular annoyance to you that other fans are sanguine? How does it affect you?

sanguine insouciance - you've gone full Cunk lol

 

[Cobwebcat]

You’re the mad old **** getting his panties in a twist because some people quite rightly believe it’s incredibly unlikely that four results all go against us at once.

Whether I or GDM or anyone will be watching with relative insouciance on Sunday makes no odds to the results, or in particular, you. But we will enjoy the experience a great deal more than you by the sounds of it.

Why is it of a particular annoyance to you that other fans are sanguine? How does it affect you?

I think he thinks we aren’t prepared for the possibility of failure and that if we are prepared there is less far to fall (I can only guess) There maybe a hint that, as he has seen City fail more than most, we don’t understand the special nature of “typical City” despite us only being in control of one of the four matches that actually matter.

 

[Scooby Blue]

The maths just shows how difficult it is to get accumulators to pay out.

The 3% chance of results going against us seems very low but is correct based on the current odds for each of the games.
Maybe as City fans we feel scarred by results going against us in the final day Stoke away relegation.

Newcastle to beat Everton: 70% chance
Villa to beat Man Utd: 55% chance
Chelsea to beat Forest: 45% chance
Fulham to beat City: 18% chance

All 4 need to happen so 0.7 x 0.55 x 0.45 x 0.18 = 3.1%

But I think a pessimistic City fan could legitimately assign different odds to above outcomes:

Newcastle: 90%, Villa 70%, Chelsea 60% , Fulham 40%
This gives a 15% chance of City missing out - which is why I am taking the 25/1 current odds on offer as both a financial and emotional hedge to a final day meltdown - which would seemingly be in keeping with much of the way the season has panned out.

 

[Cobwebcat]

The maths just shows how difficult it is to get accumulators to pay out.

The 3% chance of results going against us seems very low but is correct based on the current odds for each of the games.
Maybe as City fans we feel scarred by results going against us in the final day Stoke away relegation.

Newcastle to beat Everton: 70% chance
Villa to beat Man Utd: 55% chance
Chelsea to beat Forest: 45% chance
Fulham to beat City: 18% chance

All 4 need to happen so 0.7 x 0.55 x 0.45 x 0.18 = 3.1%

But I think a pessimistic City fan could legitimately assign different odds to above outcomes:

Newcastle: 90%, Villa 70%, Chelsea 60% , Fulham 40%
This gives a 15% chance of City missing out - which is why I am taking the 25/1 current odds on offer as both a financial and emotional hedge to a final day meltdown - which would seemingly be in keeping with much of the way the season has panned out.

Now that’s a logic I can understand, though the way Johnny is talking I can only imagine it’s way more than 15% for him personally as it’s just what we do supposedly.

 

[SWP's back]

I think he thinks we aren’t prepared for the possibility of failure and that if we are prepared there is less far to fall (I can only guess) There maybe a hint that, as he has seen City fail more than most, we don’t understand the special nature of “typical City” despite us only being in control of one of the four matches that actually matter.

He needs to wipe his fanny.

 

[oakiecokie]

@oakiecokie has been watching City for 131 years.

Well Methusalah was my brother.

 

[supercity88]

because we're City friend

More reason to be optimistic in my opinion.

I'm personally comfortable either way. If we're going to invest in young players then it wouldn't be the worst thing to have Europa League football. I've said repeatedly I don't think it does long-term harm to us being out of the CL as long as it's temporary. If we do make the CL it's going to need to see us get a lot more quality into the squad to compete on all fronts. At the moment I'm less optimistic about our chances of doing that than I am qualifying for the CL.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Whether I or GDM or anyone will be watching with relative insouciance on Sunday makes no odds to the results, or in particular, you. But we will enjoy the experience a great deal more than you by the sounds of it.

I don’t do insouciance.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Well Methusalah was my brother.

Your younger brother, presumably?

 

[johnny crossan]

Now that’s a logic I can understand, though the way Johnny is talking I can only imagine it’s way more than 15% for him personally as it’s just what we do supposedly.

15%! crumbs that's nearly a one in six chance - Russian roulette ;-6

 

[Protein Junkie]

Newcastle: 90%, Villa 70%, Chelsea 60% , Fulham 40%
This gives a 15% chance of City missing out - which is why I am taking the 25/1 current odds on offer as both a financial and emotional hedge to a final day meltdown - which would seemingly be in keeping with much of the way the season has panned out.

If you are going down that road add Ipswich to beat West Han at home for a 73/1 Acca.

 

[Mancity1980]

Fuck Villa. Scum draw with Villa. Spurs beat Brighton. Forest beat Chelsea. Scum finish 17th, no CL for Villa. And the beauty will be that defeat at Etihad cost them

You forgot Spurs beat the Rags tonight!

 

[balotellishaircut]

Obviously I hope we win on Sunday and I’m hoping Chelsea win as well, I can’t stand Forest fans tbh, calling us cheats when we haven’t been convicted of anything unlike them cheating cnuts.

 

[Blue_Lightsaber]

Thankfully the post continues to be in great form for us.. 8.5/10 performance yesterday.. helped Marmoush but kept Bournemouth at bay!

Been absolutely huge for us down the stretch!

Give the groundskeeper and welders a 10 year contract!!

 

[pavelsrnicek]

Thankfully the post continues to be in great form for us.. 8.5/10 performance yesterday.. helped Marmoush but kept Bournemouth at bay!

Been absolutely huge for us down the stretch!

Give the groundskeeper and welders a 10 year contract!!

The post might be our friend but the crossbar isn’t! It’s cost us 2 points against Southampton and KDB a farewell goal last night.

 

[pauls]

Obviously I hope we win on Sunday and I’m hoping Chelsea win as well, I can’t stand Forest fans tbh, calling us cheats when we haven’t been convicted of anything unlike them cheating cnuts.

Nah, the way Chelski have took the piss with FFP without any real condemnation from the authorities or our media buddies really grates with me, gaining UCL qualification gives them more license to challenge us.

 

[Father Paul]

The maths just shows how difficult it is to get accumulators to pay out.

The 3% chance of results going against us seems very low but is correct based on the current odds for each of the games.
Maybe as City fans we feel scarred by results going against us in the final day Stoke away relegation.

Newcastle to beat Everton: 70% chance
Villa to beat Man Utd: 55% chance
Chelsea to beat Forest: 45% chance
Fulham to beat City: 18% chance

All 4 need to happen so 0.7 x 0.55 x 0.45 x 0.18 = 3.1%

But I think a pessimistic City fan could legitimately assign different odds to above outcomes:

Newcastle: 90%, Villa 70%, Chelsea 60% , Fulham 40%
This gives a 15% chance of City missing out - which is why I am taking the 25/1 current odds on offer as both a financial and emotional hedge to a final day meltdown - which would seemingly be in keeping with much of the way the season has panned out.

I would say Fulham to beat us is closer to 40 than 18. Otherwise can't disagree with that analysis.

 

[Axel Freed]

Nah, the way Chelski have took the piss with FFP without any real condemnation from the authorities or our media buddies really grates with me, gaining UCL qualification gives them more license to challenge us.

Agreed. Chelsea have got the clout to challenge us for titles, Forest are just one season wonders.