United thread 2012/13 (inc merged IPO thread)

[Salford_Blue]

So if this goes tits up and their income drops over the next couple of years, due to fickle fans and a trophless cabinet, will the Glazer's valuation of the club drop and would that leave them open to cutting their losses and selling up potentially to a Middle Eastern billionaire?

Or would that be a no-go as it would leave them personally bankrupt?

I Think more likely a Chinese takeover or perhaps another bunch if Indian chicken farmers is my prefered choice.

Cant see it being another middle eastern state taking the reigns at Old Toilet-not there scene going toe to toe with a neighbouring country,reckon thats why the rumoured QSI mob chose PSG.

Don't know why I stated Middle East, just meant a billionaire in general!

If I was a billionaire looking to buy an English club, I would be looking for a club akin to us in 2008. A sleeping giant with a large fanbase, with the opportunity for major expansion and making vast amounts of money. All at a considerably lower price than the Buccanneers.

There appears little else out there that manyoo can utilise to maximise profits. Otherwise they would be trying these things out now, instead of whoring themselves out to anyone crazy enough to buy shares with little pulling power.

 

[JM Mcr]

Re: Utd and their Failed IPO

What makes me laugh is the volatility excuse. Why would anyone invest in this ipo when you have no control, no dividend and the company is being bleed dry. Its not clear what the p/e ratio is for this offer so heaven knows what investors make of it.

Although Credit Suisse, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Deutschebank are prepared to underwrite the offer, should it indeed go ahead. Bet the Glazers are grateful that those institutions are purely going to rely on their years of experience in global investment banking rather than seeking more expert financial advice from bluemoon before deciding whether or not to proceed ;-)

So why hasnt it gone ahead then if these giants are prepared to underwrite it..??

They claim because of current volatility in the market place (think the one thing we can all agree on is that world markets are currently all over the place) and they didn't get to be "giants" by throwing their money away. I'm not even saying it WILL go ahead, just amazed that so many on here seem to know so much about the viability of this proposed offer before the details have even been revealed.

It also hasn't definitely been pulled (yet), there's lots of speculation about and very few hard facts. On that basis I wouldn't be quick to jump to conclusions (whatever your preferred outcome).

 

[The Future's Blue]

Re: Utd and their Failed IPO

Although Credit Suisse, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Deutschebank are prepared to underwrite the offer, should it indeed go ahead. Bet the Glazers are grateful that those institutions are purely going to rely on their years of experience in global investment banking rather than seeking more expert financial advice from bluemoon before deciding whether or not to proceed ;-)

So why hasnt it gone ahead then if these giants are prepared to underwrite it..??

They claim because of current volatility in the market place (think the one thing we can all agree on is that world markets are currently all over the place) and they didn't get to be "giants" by throwing their money away. I'm not even saying it WILL go ahead, just amazed that so many on here seem to know so much about the viability of this proposed offer before the details have even been revealed.

It also hasn't definitely been pulled (yet), there's lots of speculation about and very few hard facts. On that basis I wouldn't be quick to jump to conclusions (whatever your preferred outcome).

I wonder why there'd be a lot of negative speculation, on a City forum?

(Rubs chin inquisitively)

 

[The Pink Panther]

PB.....perhaps you can help here.

What would be the perfect scenario for us fans...?

I'll have a stab.

The Glazers get themselves in a position where they cant sell, ie the only offers available don't cover their liabilities....and if they acccepted the offer it would make them personally bankrupt......they struggle to hang on paying more and more out each year in interest payments as penalties kick in because of their indebtedness in the vain hope that the good times will return and that manager X can do what Baconchops used to do, ie win trophies and control the media.

Would the banks have to step in eventually to ensure that they retreived at least some of their money back and if so how would that work with the bonds..??

Just looking for a doomsday scenario really so I can wind a few of them lot up about the worst possible ending to Uncle Malcs tenure......

For us it would be that the lack of money available to their manager, means no investment in players and makes them uncompetitive for the league (see Liverpool for the last twenty years)
As time moves on the debt rises, with the Glazers constantly moving the debt around (like a credit card debt) but without actually reducing the debt, just adding unpaid interest onto the loaded debt already in place, meanwhile they're taking as much money as possible out for themselves.
Eventually the playing staff is so poor they do a Liverpool and drop out of Champions league placing altogether
The Glazers then realise, without Champions League, the cash cow is dead and decide to sell the stadium, keep the money for themselves and lease it
A year later they attempt to sell the "club"
However they value it at £1.5b plus the debt of at least another half a billion with no stadium and a piss poor squad

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Re: Utd and their Failed IPO

The fact that such respected global institutions didn't dismiss it out of hand suggests they think there may be something to the proposals.

These "respected financial institutions" are the same ones that sold PPI to self-employed people, expensive interest rate swaps to kebab shop owners, fiddled Libor and created financial instruments based on worthless property assets that they sold to their clients. They've seen a way to make a few bob from an historically reliable source of fees over the past few years and have taken it. If the IPO doesn't go ahead they'll make money. If it does, they'll make more money. I wouldn't put too much faith in them if I were you.

PB.....perhaps you can help here.

What would be the perfect scenario for us fans...?

I'll have a stab.

The Glazers get themselves in a position where they cant sell, ie the only offers available don't cover their liabilities....and if they acccepted the offer it would make them personally bankrupt......they struggle to hang on paying more and more out each year in interest payments as penalties kick in because of their indebtedness in the vain hope that the good times will return and that manager X can do what Baconchops used to do, ie win trophies and control the media.

Would the banks have to step in eventually to ensure that they retreived at least some of their money back and if so how would that work with the bonds..??

Just looking for a doomsday scenario really so I can wind a few of them lot up about the worst possible ending to Uncle Malcs tenure......

That's a pretty decent stab I'd say. They can't sell and cover their liabilities so they hang on, as you say. The glazers have to clear their own debts so take more money out of the club, leaving just enough spare to cover interest payments. So no investment, Baconface retires, the better players jump ship (or get pushed as they can't afford the wages), the team gets worse and they struggle to qualify for the CL knock-out regularly.

Eventually they even slip out of the top 4. In certain circumstances the bond-holders can demand repayment but let's assume that doesn't happen before 2017, when the repayment of the bonds is due anyway. They don't have the money so have to sell the swamp and borrow the rest. They can't pay HMRC so get put into administration.

 

[Metal Biker]

Re: Utd and their Failed IPO

I wonder why there'd be a lot of negative speculation, on a City forum?

(Rubs chin inquisitively)

He just hasn't sussed it has he.

The preposterous notion that he thinks all Blues on here are claiming to know the ins and outs of the deal is arrogant in itself. United's IPO is in danger of going kaput, so we're laughing at them and the suggested notion this will hamper them in the future.

We've got enough enlightened Blues to let us know that this IPO was a fairly big deal for Glazer and United and the connotations of it's failure isn't something they can easily brush under the carpet and say "oh well". I'm not 100% on what the IPO failure means to Glazer or United, but i know enough to know that it was pretty important that it met a successful conclusion.

Though apparently, our Raggy friend seems to believe unless we have 100% access and knowledge to the intricacies of the IPO we should refrain from debating it?

-- Thu Jul 26, 2012 4:01 pm --

PB.....perhaps you can help here.

What would be the perfect scenario for us fans...?

For us it would be that the lack of money available to their manager, means no investment in players and makes them uncompetitive for the league (see Liverpool for the last twenty years)
As time moves on the debt rises, with the Glazers constantly moving the debt around (like a credit card debt) but without actually reducing the debt, just adding unpaid interest onto the loaded debt already in place, meanwhile they're taking as much money as possible out for themselves.
Eventually the playing staff is so poor they do a Liverpool and drop out of Champions league placing altogether
The Glazers then realise, without Champions League, the cash cow is dead and decide to sell the stadium, keep the money for themselves and lease it
A year later they attempt to sell the "club"
However they value it at £1.5b plus the debt of at least another half a billion with no stadium and a piss poor squad

 

[The Pink Panther]

The one thing we know for certain is it's the third time the Glazers have tried to raise funds on the stock market, when world markets are in turmoil, which in turn means, one can only assume that they are pretty fucking desperate

 

[The Future's Blue]

Didn't one of the main banks pull out of this deal, saying something like 'I wouldn't even touch that with Wayne Rooney's granny soaked cock', or words to that effect?

 

[Oohvonkyvonky]

Didn't one of the main banks pull out of this deal, saying something like 'I wouldn't even touch that with Wayne Rooney's granny soaked cock', or words to that effect?

The Bank of Dave IIRC used those exact words.

 

[Eags]

Death by a thousand cuts would do for me....

I like the anaolgy of the credit card debt PB.....the thought that it just compounds up and up to a point where all the profits go on servicing it.

I'm no expert and this may be a bit of wishful thinking but i feel it could be closer than people think.

Lets hope they don't qualify for the chimps league this year eh, that would be a major major blow for them.

The popular theory has always been that they will be alright as there will always be a billionaire somewhere that would want their club, their brand etc because its a monika for success and then theres all the millions of fans globally who will " always" be fans because of their history blah blah blah....

That idea gets a bit worn if they're not winning things and don't have the best players anymore, they then become a bit of a throwback, a club trying to be something they're not and with no bully at the helm to spin their propaganda it could all turn very quickly for them.

All empires crumble, lets hope theirs starts soon.....

I can't wait.