United thread 2013/14 part 2.

[Anonymous]

Re: United thread 2013/14

This made me smile

http://biomickwatson.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/how-wrong-is-david-moyes/

How wrong is David Moyes?
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Yesterday, David Moyes, manager of Manchester United, complained that the fixture list for the new season might have been manipulated to give them a difficult start to the season.

Immediately, I wanted to know – how wrong is he?

Moyes is complaining that, in the first 5 games, Man Utd have to face Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City – 3 very difficult games. So what is the probability of that happening? We can look at it with some simple simulations in R:

# read a list of current UK premier league clubs
clubs <- read.table("http://biomickwatson.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/clubs.doc",
stringsAsFactors=FALSE, header=FALSE)[,1]

# there is ManUtd and then "others"
manutd <- "ManUtd"
others <- clubs[-grep("ManUtd", clubs)]

# create data.frames of all possible home and away fixtures
home <- data.frame(home=rep(manutd,19), away=others, stringsAsFactors=FALSE)
away <- data.frame(home=others, away=rep(manutd,19), stringsAsFactors=FALSE)

# create an empty data.frame to hold the fixture list
fixtures <- data.frame(home=rep("",38), away=rep("",38), stringsAsFactors=FALSE)

# home and away games generally alternate so we create home and away index
# vectors to reflect this
home.idx <- seq(1, 38, by=2)
away.idx <- seq(2, 38, by=2)

# these are the clubs Moyes wants to avoid
avoid <- c("Liverpool","ManCity","Chelsea")

# the number of simulations
nsim <- 100

# a vector to hold the results
results <- vector(length=nsim)

# run the simulations
for(i in 1:nsim) {

# randomly assign the home and away fixtures to the home and away indices
# of the fixture list
fixtures[home.idx,] <- home[sample(1:19,19),]
fixtures[away.idx,] <- away[sample(1:19,19),]

# only look at the first five games
opponents <- fixtures[1:5,]

# a variable to record how many "bad" games Moyes gets
bad <- 0

# iterate over the teams Moyes wants to avoid and count them if they
# occur as either a home or away fixture
for (a in avoid) {
bad <- bad + nrow(opponents[opponents$home==a,])
bad <- bad + nrow(opponents[opponents$away==a,])
}
results <- bad
}

# the probability is
length(results[results>=3]) / nsim
When I run this in R, I get a probability of 0.03, or 3%.

So has Moyes been unlucky? Well, perhaps not. The teams Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea are just a few of the difficult teams Moyes could have faced, and any 3 difficult fixtures in the first 5 games would surely have had him moaning too. For example, if he had to face Arsenal, Tottenham and Everton (who finished above Liverpool last season), he might also moan about the fixtures.

So let’s run the simulation again, adding in the new teams:

# these are the clubs Moyes wants to avoid
avoid <- c("Liverpool","ManCity","Chelsea","Arsenal","Everton","Tottenham")

# the number of simulations
nsim <- 100

# a vector to hold the results
results <- vector(length=nsim)

# run the simulations
for(i in 1:nsim) {

# randomly assign the home and away fixtures to the home and away indices
# of the fixture list
fixtures[home.idx,] <- home[sample(1:19,19),]
fixtures[away.idx,] <- away[sample(1:19,19),]

# only look at the first five games
opponents <- fixtures[1:5,]

# a variable to record how many "bad" games Moyes gets
bad <- 0

# iterate over the teams Moyes wants to avoid and count them if they
# occur as either a home or away fixture
for (a in avoid) {
bad <- bad + nrow(opponents[opponents$home==a,])
bad <- bad + nrow(opponents[opponents$away==a,])
}
results <- bad
}

# the probability is
length(results[results>=3]) / nsim
This time I get a much higher probability of 0.22, or 22% – a greater than 1 in 5 chance! So not that unlikely after all….

Perhaps you should have paid attention in Maths class, David? :-)

 

[manimanc]

Re: United thread 2013/14

The list of players utd want to sign get's a long as pinnochios nose..
Let's have a butchers at the latest additions to the already "ongoing" wishlist that the darlings/rag arse lickers/billy bullshitters/jackanory/pinnochios/british press have plastered across their back pages under the headliine EXCLUSIVE/WORLD EXCLUSIVE..
alcantara.
Fabregas.
Ronaldo.
Bale.
Cavani.
Jovetic.
Sneijder.
Schweinstiger.
Strootman.
Modric
Willan.
Ozil.
Wow,that is some fantastically made up shite if ever i've seen it and how these people can look at themselves in a mirror everyday is beyond me
But it's been fantastic entertainment,filled me with plenty of belly laughs they have..

 

[Neil_K]

Re: United thread 2013/14

Don't really see his point.
Swansea away, yes a touth one but they were a mid table team last year and there could of been harder games to start with. Liverpool without Saurez so a good time to play them, Palace at home leaving Chelsea and us. I would say our 1st away game at Cardiff is harder than theirs at Swansea due to it being Cardiffs 1st ever home game in the PL and they will be so up for it.

Anyhow he should remember the early part of last season and the decisions bordering on cheating utd got in thier favour at the tough games ie pool and Chelsea away

That's how I see it, their fixtures during the Champions League are kind and and their run in from the beginning of March after City go to Old Trafford is very favourable

West Bromwich Albion v. Manchester United
Manchester United v. Liverpool
West Ham United v. Manchester United
Manchester United v. Aston Villa Aston Villa
Newcastle United v. Manchester United
Manchester United v. Hull City
Manchester United v. Norwich City
Manchester United v. Sunderland
Southampton v. Manchester United

What's he moaning at, it's not like he'll be out by Christmas.........

 

[Blue Til Death]

Re: United thread 2013/14

He's doing what comes naturally to all rag scum bastards

 

[ohfk]

Re: United thread 2013/14

This little quote made me giggle.

From F365 Big weekend.

Title: He's not ready yet-he's terrified

"His fear is understandable, of course. Following Sir Alex Ferguson is near-enough impossible even without a flailing summer chasing assorted midfielders around Europe like a ginger Benny Hill"

 

[TheMightyQuinn]

Re: United thread 2013/14

To be fair, Ferguson moaned like a stupid old prick about the fixtures quite often too.

It just seems more laughable coming from a ginger prick who's won fuck all as opposed to a man who bought a knighthood off New Labour and won some trophies.

He seems very defensive in general, his reaction to the Rooney questions when he brings up 'Tom and Danny' was funny as was his assertion that the league is fixed as united were unstoppable last season.

Ferguson was a clever man, he was slimy, he could give it out in public but you knew he'd be pulling strings in private to make sure he got his way. Moyes hasn't the wit for that, he's a ticking time bomb, if he's making confused accusations of the fixtures being rigged now before a ball has been kicked and he's yet to face any pressure, what the fuck will he be like in a few months?

I just hope united stand by him. I want him to see out his contract. He needs time to really get to work.

 

[Blue Mist]

Re: United thread 2013/14

Most of the posts over the last ten pages have been about Moyes being a twunt and he should be charged by the F.A. I actually think he has been very clever and it provides an insight into what a Fergiscum clone he will turn out to be.
What Moyes actually did was approach the League and ask if it was legit. He of course got the reply that everything was above board. They were never going to say anything else, BUT, because he approached them and not the press they could never bring a disrepute charge when he then tells the worlds media that it appears to be bent. Very is looking to get a snidey dig in should everything go tits up just like red nose.

Mark my words we will grow to hate him as much as the old soak as he is just as sneaky and an utter c*nt.

 

[stony]

Re: United thread 2013/14

Most of the posts over the last ten pages have been about Moyes being a twunt and he should be charged by the F.A. I actually think he has been very clever and it provides an insight into what a Fergiscum clone he will turn out to be.
What Moyes actually did was approach the League and ask if it was legit. He of course got the reply that everything was above board. They were never going to say anything else, BUT, because he approached them and not the press they could never bring a disrepute charge when he then tells the worlds media that it appears to be bent. Very is looking to get a snidey dig in should everything go tits up just like red nose.

Mark my words we will grow to hate him as much as the old soak as he is just as sneaky and an utter c*nt.

I already hated him as much as the GPC as soon as he took the job. I don't think we ever need to worry about him though. Not a chance he'll do what the GPC did.

 

[Blue Mist]

Re: United thread 2013/14

Most of the posts over the last ten pages have been about Moyes being a twunt and he should be charged by the F.A. I actually think he has been very clever and it provides an insight into what a Fergiscum clone he will turn out to be.
What Moyes actually did was approach the League and ask if it was legit. He of course got the reply that everything was above board. They were never going to say anything else, BUT, because he approached them and not the press they could never bring a disrepute charge when he then tells the worlds media that it appears to be bent. Very is looking to get a snidey dig in should everything go tits up just like red nose.

Mark my words we will grow to hate him as much as the old soak as he is just as sneaky and an utter c*nt.

I already hated him as much as the GPC as soon as he took the job. I don't think we ever need to worry about him though. Not a chance he'll do what the GPC did.

Ok in terms of trophies he wont achieve what the GPC did but as long as they stay around the top four he will be moaning and bitching like the GPC. He will use every trick in the book to win decisions from the ref, just wait for the penalty that wasn't given to hear the tw*t moan or the red card that should have been given against a City defender (and that will be said the night before the match) We write this bastard off at our peril.

 

[KentBlue]

Re: United thread 2013/14

Not a chance he'll do what the GPC did.

I hope he does, and stays there for years and years.