US & Israel attack Iran

BobKowalski said:
Well, that would be great, but that isn’t getting the Strait open, ships sailing, oil flowing or helping the 20,000 poor sods stuck on ships and running out of supplies because no port wants to accept them for fear of attack.

I don’t agree with helping the Americans - staying out of this shitshow is the only sensible option, but we, like everyone else, do need the Strait open, and if I’m being honest I have no idea how we do that. I don’t know what we and the other five nations have agreed on about the issue either. All I do know is that the whole situation stinks and Trump is a **** for starting this shit.
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The Americans feeling the economic pain of this would have been the better long term result.
 
BobKowalski said:
Well, that would be great, but that isn’t getting the Strait open, ships sailing, oil flowing or helping the 20,000 poor sods stuck on ships and running out of supplies because no port wants to accept them for fear of attack.

I don’t agree with helping the Americans - staying out of this shitshow is the only sensible option, but we, like everyone else, do need the Strait open, and if I’m being honest I have no idea how we do that. I don’t know what we and the other five nations have agreed on about the issue either. All I do know is that the whole situation stinks and Trump is a **** for starting this shit.
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Realistically the only way for the strait to open is to force the USA and Israel to back down from their illegal war and negotiate a ceasefire.

Starmer & co. Releasing their statements only condemning Irans retaliatory attacks and not the ones that initiate them, letting them operate out of Fairford and Diego Garcia doesn’t help open the strait, it’s just weak support of a disastrous US war effort and guaranteeing we’re on the wrong side of history again.
 
Now would have been the perfect time to tell him to fuck off considering recent news reports that:
  • Estimates suggest the cost of continuing the war could reach approximately $200 billion.
  • It has already caused the biggest energy supply shock in history
  • Officials in Oman claimed that Israel encouraged U.S. involvement in the conflict even though a potential peace agreement may have been achievable.
  • Netanyahu authorized strikes on Iranian gas facilities without prior consultation with the United States.
  • U.S. counter-terrorism chief resigned, stating that Iran did not pose an imminent threat at the time of the escalation.
All counties stop letting them use air bases, condemn them and Israel, fuck them both off, Let the yanks economy tank, keep the hand out to reconcile in future, let Trump get voted out, fucking idiot.
 
Kippax Street 1880 said:
Disastrous decision. He should have taken the Spanish position and told him to fuck off.
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Elbow beards said:
Diago Garcia is closer to the southern tip of Iran than we are to the northern tip.
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We’re not in danger from Iranian missiles, it’s not just the distance, it’s the fact a potential missile would have to fly over every country (and military air defences) in mainland Europe and dozens of radar systems.

Firing at Diego Garcia was about showing the world they’ve got much more advanced weapons than we’re supposed to think they do (previously it was believed they were sabre rattling when they said their missiles we’re limited to 2,000km) and a retaliating at Starmer joining the war by the back door.

Reading some of the press coverage it also needs to be said it’s an entirely justified thing to do. There has not been a war in history where attacking an air force base from which someone is bombing your country is unconscionable. If we were in a war and the enemy was flying bombing raids out of a military base, we would 100% attack that base.
 
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domalino said:
Realistically the only way for the strait to open is to force the USA and Israel to back down from their illegal war and negotiate a ceasefire.

Starmer & co. Releasing their statements only condemning Irans retaliatory attacks and not the ones that initiate them, letting them operate out of Fairford and Diego Garcia doesn’t help open the strait, it’s just weak support of a disastrous US war effort and guaranteeing we’re on the wrong side of history again.
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I’m on board with that, everyone knows that the trigger for this disaster is the US/Israel attack on Iran, except how do we and everyone else force the US to back off? And how much solidarity will there be?

The Gulf States are also considering weighing in on measures to open the Strait and none of that involves facing off against the US. And people talk about us bearing the pain and accepting higher bills, except it isn’t just us as Asian countries run on ME oil. Refineries in Malaysia etc refine ME oil for Australia and China has stopped supplying jet fuel to Australia. It’s not an issue of higher prices as such, but no oil or petrol altogether. Fertilisers are another issue with the potential impact on some 45 million people in poorer countries according to the UN.

We have to see the closure of the Strait in an international context not just a national one which is why Japan signed on to the UK/EU letter of intent. It isn’t just us or Europe affected by this crisis it’s a global one.
 
domalino said:
Realistically the only way for the strait to open is to force the USA and Israel to back down from their illegal war and negotiate a ceasefire.

Starmer & co. Releasing their statements only condemning Irans retaliatory attacks and not the ones that initiate them, letting them operate out of Fairford and Diego Garcia doesn’t help open the strait, it’s just weak support of a disastrous US war effort and guaranteeing we’re on the wrong side of history again.
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I don't know what tactical thoughts are going through the minds of the top brass of the Iranian government, but I would have thought they are saying behind closed doors to Gulf States, get the US to stop bombing us, relax sanctions, Israel pulls back out of Lebanon and we will allow ships through the straits
 
ZenHalfTimeCrock said:
Just started Michael Axworthy’s Revolutionary Iran: A History of the Islamic Republic.

Although Axworthy passed in 2019 and the book was published in 2013, the six page preface, which is entitled ‘Introduction: The Hidden Continent of Iran’ is an exceptional piece of writing, one that I can guarantee will upend the preconceptions that many may have about the country.

It can be read as a stand alone essay and is still highly relevant. And by sampling the Kindle edition on Amazon, anyone can do that for free.

It’s well worth the bother.

View attachment 186828
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Thanks for the recommendation, I'll give it a read.
 
BobKowalski said:
I’m on board with that, everyone knows that the trigger for this disaster is the US/Israel attack on Iran, except how do we and everyone else force the US to back off? And how much solidarity will there be?

The Gulf States are also considering weighing in on measures to open the Strait and none of that involves facing off against the US. And people talk about us bearing the pain and accepting higher bills, except it isn’t just us as Asian countries run on ME oil. Refineries in Malaysia etc refine ME oil for Australia and China has stopped supplying jet fuel to Australia. It’s not an issue of higher prices as such, but no oil or petrol altogether. Fertilisers are another issue with the potential impact on some 45 million people in poorer countries according to the UN.

We have to see the closure of the Strait in an international context not just a national one which is why Japan signed on to the UK/EU letter of intent. It isn’t just us or Europe affected by this crisis it’s a global one.
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I would suggest the first step to getting the US to back down would be for everyone who wants them to back down to actually start saying so. We only have to go back 2 months to the Greenland fiasco, compare the reaction to that (where he did stand down) and this.

Remember the EU threatened Trump with $100Bn of tariffs and the Anti-coercion Instrument that would have banned trade with the US and kneecapped US companies in Europe. That’s what made him back down on Greenland. Not letting him do what he wanted and sitting on the sidelines while he destroyed the world economy. Not releasing mealy mouthed joint statements decrying the illegality of one sides actions while not even mentioning Trumps.

If European leaders were brave enough to frame this war how it actually is - The US entirely voluntarily abandoned peace talks where Iran was conceding everything the US wanted them to in order to start an illegal war that has destroyed the world economy - then the solution becomes really obvious. You use whatever diplomatic and economic weapons you have to stop the war and stop the US from destroying the world economy.

Obviously that will never happen but it’s what needs to be done.
 
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dickie davies said:
I don't know what tactical thoughts are going through the minds of the top brass of the Iranian government, but I would have thought they are saying behind closed doors to Gulf States, get the US to stop bombing us, relax sanctions, Israel pulls back out of Lebanon and we will allow ships through the straits
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They’ve said that publicly! They said almost 2 weeks ago if you stop the US from attacking us from your countries we won’t attack you and the strait will open to your ships.
 
dickie davies said:
I don't know what tactical thoughts are going through the minds of the top brass of the Iranian government, but I would have thought they are saying behind closed doors to Gulf States, get the US to stop bombing us, relax sanctions, Israel pulls back out of Lebanon and we will allow ships through the straits
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Iran will never trust USA again so need to be out of everything they have caused but obviously a negotiated settlement along the lines you describe is I think possible.
 
dickie davies said:
I don't know what tactical thoughts are going through the minds of the top brass of the Iranian government, but I would have thought they are saying behind closed doors to Gulf States, get the US to stop bombing us, relax sanctions, Israel pulls back out of Lebanon and we will allow ships through the straits
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Iran is saying this openly to the Gulf States. The problem is the Gulf States have little leverage with the US and zero leverage with Israel. Qatar did condemn the bombing of the Iranian gas fields and there has been agreement to hold off attacking them by US and Israel, but there was also a threat that they would bomb them again if necessary.

Gulf States are considering joining in on efforts to re-open the Strait. They also need Iran to stop bombing them. Their calculation seems to be it is better to side with the US than oppose them.
 
Police officer shot in the Netherlands yesterday and remains in hospital. He has an Iranian background and has been highly critical online of the Iranian government. Suspect still not apprehended.

Focus is often on the macro level, understandably, but at the micro level this war has the potential to create problems far from the immediately affected areas.
 
domalino said:
I would suggest the first step to getting the US to back down would be for everyone who wants them to back down to actually start saying so. We only have to go back 2 months to the Greenland fiasco, compare the reaction to that (where he did stand down) and this.

Remember the EU threatened Trump with $100Bn of tariffs and the Anti-coercion Instrument that would have banned trade with the US and kneecapped US companies in Europe. That’s what made him back down on Greenland. Not letting him do what he wanted and sitting on the sidelines while he destroyed the world economy. Not releasing mealy mouthed joint statements decrying the illegality of one sides actions while not even mentioning Trumps.

If European leaders were brave enough to frame this war how it actually is - The US entirely voluntarily abandoned peace talks where Iran was conceding everything the US wanted them to in order to start an illegal war that has destroyed the world economy - then the solution becomes really obvious. You use whatever diplomatic and economic weapons you have to stop the war and stop the US from destroying the world economy.
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Iran is not Greenland. Iran has supplied Russia with weapons in its war with Ukraine which is a direct threat to European and our security. Iran backed militia have attacked shipping in the Red Sea for the last two years. There is no love lost for the Iranian regime which just this week executed three people for the January protests.

This does not make the attack on Iran right or absolve the US from gross stupidity and I do think there needs to be a reckoning for the US by everyone else. The immediate problem is the Strait and that right now is our and everyone else's priority. The only body that can make the US back off is the American public and that ain’t happening. Threatening the US with tariffs during a global energy shock is an empty threat. No one is doing that.
 
BobKowalski said:
The problem is the Gulf States have little leverage with the US and zero leverage with Israel.
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Saudi has a trillion dollar investment planned in the US and the UAE similar
If that's not leverage, then what is!
The gulf states can also threaten to look east for its allies and partnerships

Having no influence over Israel doesn't matter if the Gulf States can pressure the US in bringing its dog to heel
 
BobKowalski said:
Iran is not Greenland. Iran has supplied Russia with weapons in its war with Ukraine which is a direct threat to European and our security. Iran backed militia have attacked shipping in the Red Sea for the last two years. There is no love lost for the Iranian regime which just this week executed three people for the January protests.
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Agreed, and I made my stance on the IR pretty clear in the threads on the January protests. How much of that is genuinely relevant to the wider picture here? Does Irans actions mean it’s fair game for anyone to start an illegal war against them, invade them no matter the cost to the rest of the world?

I don’t think it does, and we already know from what various NATO and UN officials have said neither does international law. We know it wasn’t an act of self defence, or legally sanctionable in any way, which makes the US and Israel the aggressors and instigators of worldwide financial crisis.

I fundamentally disagree with you that the EU can’t force Trump into compliance because it already happened 6 weeks ago. How much investment do the gulf states have lined up for the USA they can pull the plug on? How much oil do they trade in dollars?

If Hormuz is the immediate problem, then recognise it took 2 weeks of diplomatic pressure and economic threats to slow Trump fold on Greenland and a US ground invasion can’t even start for another 4-6 weeks, and would likely take most of the rest of the year to open the strait.
 
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