US & Israel attack Iran

BobKowalski said:
Or, if the US declare victory and pull out, then Iran will cease attacking its neighbours and the Strait will reopen. The trigger for the Strait closure was the US attack. No further attacks. No closure and no bombing of its neighbours by Iran.

Projecting further, this means the regime stays in place, it can and will rebuild and it will still have its enriched uranium. It also means the US war against Iran was for naught. Therefore the two options for the US are 1) full scale invasion to secure the uranium and topple the regime 2) a diplomatic resolution which could have been achieved without attacking them. Arguably, by attacking Iran and not toppling the regime the US has strengthened the Iranian hand in any negotiated settlement. After all it was the threat of US military action that was a pressure point. If that military action ultimately failed then that pressure is gone.
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Agree. Quite sure the US would like to return to the negotiating table, but, perversely, neither the Iranians nor the Israelis would be so willing.
 
Gabriel said:
Deploying on Kharg Island would surely be extremely risky if missiles could still be launched from the mainland. From what I can see announced, no massed build up of ground forces appears ‘imminent’. A relatively small number of marines, yes, but it would take months to assemble the numbers required to establish a secure foothold along the southern coast. In the meantime, the chokehold would remain in place and prices would only continue upwards.

This whole fiasco has exposed fundamental problems in US thinking. Politically, diplomatically, economically, militarily, and strategically, the folly of sidelining experts and allowing transactional businessmen free rein is all too apparent.
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Apparently there are more on the way
 
Gabriel said:
Agree. Quite sure the US would like to return to the negotiating table, but, perversely, neither the Iranians nor the Israelis would be so willing.
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The Iranians may see a return to negotiations as a ‘victory’ for them. Agree on Israel.
 
BlueRockape said:
Apparently there are more on the way
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There are reportedly 50,000 US troops stationed in the Middle East and 2,500 more marines en route. It would require vastly more to be moved for any military command to be fully confident, and moving that number takes time and is difficult to hide from media scrutiny. It would also land badly with the American public as prices rise.
 
BobKowalski said:
The Iranians may see a return to negotiations as a ‘victory’ for them. Agree on Israel.
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The Iranians might, but every passing day of pain for them is also a day nearer to the point when the economic pain hurts the West and particularly the United States. Trump knows this and is increasingly desperate for an off-ramp, but nobody, neither enemy nor ally, is willing to acquiesce. It almost feels as if other world leaders are prepared to endure the pain to see Trump humiliated.
 
Ban-jani said:
She was nowhere near as bad as Trump, and I say that as someone who has lost thousands due to her policies.

She was ousted in record time too. If anything it shows we have the mechanisms to rid ourselves of the worst leaders.
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Tongue in cheek. Had she not been removed and served the time, one can but imagine the further damage. The mechanisms lie with the institutions and political parties, but ultimately it lies with the electorate to ensure such incompetence is not elevated in the first place. In that regard, I’m less confident.
 
Ban-jani said:
If someone was as crazy leading our country, we’d be seeing no confidence votes lodged and the crown perhaps stepping in.

What options have they got because this cannot continue.
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Functionally there’s a bunch of ways to remove a rogue president but they all rely on the idea that people in the other branches of government are serving the country and not the president.

The Supreme Court, Justice department, and Congress could all stop this if the republican wings wanted to, but they don’t.
 
Gabriel said:
Tongue in cheek. Had she not been removed and served the time, one can but imagine the further damage. The mechanisms lie with the institutions and political parties, but ultimately it lies with the electorate to ensure such incompetence is not elevated in the first place. In that regard, I’m less confident.
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I doubt she’d have done 1% of the disgrace Trump has inflicted on his country and internationally.

I agree Re the electorate but surely to God the yanks aren’t so entrenched he’d win again. The democrats need to get their fucking acts together this time.
 
Ban-jani said:
I doubt she’d have done 1% of the disgrace Trump has inflicted on his country and internationally.

I agree Re the electorate but surely to God the yanks aren’t so entrenched he’d win again. The democrats need to get their fucking acts together this time.
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Thankfully, the UK will never know.

He can’t ‘win again’ unless he rides roughshod through the Constitution, once more. As for the Democratic Party, they will first need to coalesce around a candidate, but even before that they will need to decide what they want. Do they want a candidate who will make a clean break from the past, or do they want a candidate that will seek some form of retribution to ensure this administration is held to account. The longer the war continues, the longer the economic pain will last and be felt, which will harm the Republicans, and come 2028 the electorate may be in the mood for some Old Testament vengeance.
 
Gabriel said:
Thankfully, the UK will never know.

He can’t ‘win again’ unless he rides roughshod through the Constitution, once more. As for the Democratic Party, they will first need to coalesce around a candidate, but even before that they will need to decide what they want. Do they want a candidate who will make a clean break from the past, or do they want a candidate that will seek some form of retribution to ensure this administration is held to account. The longer the war continues, the longer the economic pain will last and be felt, which will harm the Republicans, and come 2028 the electorate may be in the mood for some Old Testament vengeance.
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After he was responsible for the deaths of 500,000 Americans by mishandling Covid I thought that was the end of him. Literally nothing will finish him other than a massive heart attack on the toilet.
 
Gabriel said:
Thankfully, the UK will never know.

He can’t ‘win again’ unless he rides roughshod through the Constitution, once more. As for the Democratic Party, they will first need to coalesce around a candidate, but even before that they will need to decide what they want. Do they want a candidate who will make a clean break from the past, or do they want a candidate that will seek some form of retribution to ensure this administration is held to account. The longer the war continues, the longer the economic pain will last and be felt, which will harm the Republicans, and come 2028 the electorate may be in the mood for some Old Testament vengeance.
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The modern american voter needs candidates like this...

latest
 
west didsblue said:
After he was responsible for the deaths of 500,000 Americans by mishandling Covid I thought that was the end of him. Literally nothing will finish him other than a massive heart attack on the toilet.
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As a human, most probably. Like most politicians, however, he’ll live and die by pocketbook issues.

The decision facing the next American electorate is transcendent. It’s not merely deciding which party should govern but about ensuring such an aberration can never recur.
 
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