US Politics Thread

The blue phantom said:
I can't believe any Muslims would vote for Trump especially after his racist Rhetoric towards them? That's without him wanting a.ban on them too.
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The only tricky thing for Biden is where those voters are. The “blue wall” states Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin have a sizable Arab American population and if they dont vote it could make things close and it was pretty close in 2020 in some of those states and in 2016 Hillary Clinton dropped the ball. However, we are a little over a year away from Election Day so a lot of things can change.
 
BayernMan said:
The only tricky thing for Biden is where those voters are. The “blue wall” states Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin have a sizable Arab American population and if they dont vote it could make things close and it was pretty close in 2020 in some of those states and in 2016 Hillary Clinton dropped the ball. However, we are a little over a year away from Election Day so a lot of things can change.
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It would be interesting to see the same view from Jewish voters. They are double the population, but I suspect much more fragmented in terms of both location and political persuasion.

You can guarantee there's some cynical arithmetic being done behind closed doors on this.
 
BayernMan said:
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Read this:

The poll results are likely to increase concerns among Democrats about Biden’s standing with Arab Americans heading into 2024, particularly in Michigan, where roughly 277,000 Arab Americans call home, and Biden won in 2020 by 155,000 votes. But the smaller Arab American populations in Pennsylvania and Georgia were also larger than Biden’s margins of victory there. All three states are ones Biden flipped after Trump won them in 2016.

Can you spot the terrible, stupid journalism? Or maybe the terrible, stupid math(s)?
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
Read this:

The poll results are likely to increase concerns among Democrats about Biden’s standing with Arab Americans heading into 2024, particularly in Michigan, where roughly 277,000 Arab Americans call home, and Biden won in 2020 by 155,000 votes. But the smaller Arab American populations in Pennsylvania and Georgia were also larger than Biden’s margins of victory there. All three states are ones Biden flipped after Trump won them in 2016.

Can you spot the terrible, stupid journalism? Or maybe the terrible, stupid math(s)?
Click to expand...

It is misleading.

- Turnout for voting age population last election was about 62%
- Not everybody is eligible to vote, it doesn’t even say if the 277k includes under 18s.
- They didn’t all vote Biden in 2020, according to the poll above, 59% did
- The above poll has 17% still voting for him
- They’ve ignored the fact most are switching to ‘not sure’ or 3rd party.

So based on the 277,000 Arab Americans, it’s likely less than 100,000 would have actually voted Biden in 2020, and at least 30,000 still will, the rest going mostly third party. Even a huge swing like this (ignoring the ‘not sures’) is going to be worth at most… what 50k votes?… and this is in the state with the largest voting block.

It’s not nearly enough to swing the state by itself but if the rest of the Dem vote is down it may have some bearing on the outcome.

This is what I’m saying about the cynical arithmetic. I can guarantee Biden‘s team have done the maths and have figured out there is a much greater impact in losing the Jewish vote.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
It is misleading.

- Turnout for voting age population last election was about 62%
- Not everybody is eligible to vote, it doesn’t even say if the 277k includes under 18s.
- They didn’t all vote Biden in 2020, according to the poll above, 59% did
- The above poll has 17% still voting for him
- They’ve ignored the fact most are switching to ‘not sure’ or 3rd party.

So based on the 277,000 Arab Americans, it’s likely less than 100,000 would have actually voted Biden in 2020, and at least 30,000 still will, the rest going mostly third party. Even a huge swing like this (ignoring the ‘not sures’) is going to be worth at most… what 50k votes?… and this is in the state with the largest voting block.

It’s not nearly enough to swing the state by itself but if the rest of the Dem vote is down it may have some bearing on the outcome.

This is what I’m saying about the cynical arithmetic. I can guarantee Biden‘s team have done the maths and have figured out there is a much greater impact in losing the Jewish vote.
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Plus the fact that Biden received over 7m more votes than Trump in 2020 nationwide (and the Arab population is also spread nationwide, it’s not like every single one of them live in the swing states that carried the electoral college for Biden)
 


I’ll never understood the political calculus Sinema deployed. She could have been a Senate hero with a legacy her kids kids kids would talk about but instead sells out to work on some board for some billionaire so they don’t have to pay taxes.

I can’t imagine working so hard for a political career to sell out. I hope it whatever they are paying her is worth it.
 
BayernMan said:


I’ll never understood the political calculus Sinema deployed. She could have been a Senate hero with a legacy her kids kids kids would talk about but instead sells out to work on some board for some billionaire so they don’t have to pay taxes.

I can’t imagine working so hard for a political career to sell out. I hope it whatever they are paying her is worth it.
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It is bonkers how bad some Democrats are. Its like they see what Republicans get away with and think they want some of that action.

As you say, takes years to that level of politics then just throw it away.
 
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