US Politics Thread

FogBlueInSanFran said:
Very useful series of tweets by a guy I like a lot (because he’s interesting, thoughtful and because he’s often right). He points out 1) Biden has never lost to a Republican; 2) consumer confidence among Dems is near a cycle high (something I’ve brought up before); and 3) the same people who said the US is headed for a hard landing are predicting a Trump win.

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Find it strange Biden hasnt been crowing about the stock market as that was always Trumps barometer. Peoples pensions must be looking a lot healthier.
 
Gabriel said:
Think his term ends in 2026, so you might have to wait until 2028.
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If something untoward should happen to Biden he is the made to measure replacement.

He made it clear he’s not “running” in 2024, but his Gubernatorial term is of no consequence. See DeSantis, and many others over time, for evidence of that.
 
super_city_si said:
Find it strange Biden hasnt been crowing about the stock market as that was always Trumps barometer. Peoples pensions must be looking a lot healthier.
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Patience.

It’s very early in the year and the soft landing isn’t assured. There is a significant fear of Q1 results not meeting expectations and interest rate cuts being less bold, and later in the year.

In addition, millions upon millions of Americans do not have stock market pensions (IRAs & 401Ks) because we have zero requirement for them. Many MAGAts are working poor fools who think Trump will fix the economy, but couldn’t tell you whether the economy is good, bad or indifferent and/or what Trump could/would/should do about it!

There may well be a time to crow about the stock market, but it’s certainly not that time yet, with 10 months to the election!
 
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ChicagoBlue said:
If something untoward should happen to Biden he is the made to measure replacement.

He made it clear he’s not “running” in 2024, but his Gubernatorial term is of no consequence. See DeSantis, and many others over time, for evidence of that.
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Will be interesting to see if Haley’s comments about age and mental ability gain her any ground in New Hampshire. Trump can barely make an appearance without offering her grist for her mill, and the more she highlights his declining capabilities, the less he can use that stick to beat Biden. Would be fascinating if ‘age’ , cognitive ability, and the prevailing gerontocracy became issues in this election, but I suspect that prospect would terrify those closest to power in both parties.
 
Gabriel said:
Will be interesting to see if Haley’s comments about age and mental ability gain her any ground in New Hampshire. Trump can barely make an appearance without offering her grist for her mill, and the more she highlights his declining capabilities, the less he can use that stick to beat Biden. Would be fascinating if ‘age’ , cognitive ability, and the prevailing gerontocracy became issues in this election, but I suspect that prospect would terrify those closest to power in both parties.
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American politics, in general, and the Senate, in particular, are like the TV Room at the local Rest Home for the Old and Infirm, so why should the presidency be any different?!

That said, it’s going to take a LOT more than Trump sounding like he has the mental ability and agility of an 8 yr old non-reader for the MAGA Cult to swear off their mission. And, make no mistake, they see it as a mission!

Dems are not nearly so sanguine about the age, and mental or physical agility, of Biden. Plus, they’re a fickle bunch of snowflakes who will vote Third Party rather than hold their nose for the least bad of the major party candidates, knowing it could fuck up the race for the Dems!

Don’t ask Hillary about her feelings for Jill Stein, or Bush Sr about Ross Perot!
 
halfcenturyup said:
So this thread is very US- and UK-centric for obvious reasons, but took a bit of a turn internationally in the last few pages, so I was wondering what people think other parts of the world would like from the US election?

BRICS for example. We know what Russia wants (for Ukraine), and I imagine China wants the same (if only for Taiwan) although Trump is unpredictable on China. India? Brazil? South Africa? I suppose they would all like a US president for sale? Netanyahu will obviously want Trump to finish what he started long ago. The rest of the Middle East? They would presumably like someone who likes money? Europe clearly wants stability, so Biden. Any thoughts on those, or any others? Africa, South America?
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Although Trump’s foreign policy last time around was mostly consistent with what US presidents usually do, he is capricious and has a narrow view of US interests. I would argue Netanyahu would prefer Biden who has been right being everything Israel has done in the last few months (to an indefensible extent, in my view).
 
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