Primaries are all about momentum and while it is at this stage about 99% Trump’s to lose, Haley does stand a decent chance in New Hampshire on Tuesday. She’s currently polling somewhere between 35-40%.
Really there’s one final big unanswered question that will determine things… Were those planning to vote Christie, Desantis or Vivek looking for any Trump alternative? Or is Trump their second choice?
The only way Haley stands any chance is if the voting is split into two major camps of “Trump” and “Not Trump” and the latter coalesces behind her.
My guess is if she doesn’t finish ahead of Trump on Tuesday she will withdraw, leaving him as the defacto nominee after just two states. Not sure if that has ever happened for the party in opposition but that’s the cult in action.
It’s frankly going to take a miracle at this stage.