US Politics Thread

[SWP's back]

My concern is that Democrats are experts at cutting their noses off to spite their face and lack the pragmatism of Republicans.

If it wasn’t for the fact that the US is so important for a) the world and b) mine and my client’s money I’d be inclined to say “well if you fucking idiots don’t vote and Trump gets in then you deserve it” (not YOU but the “apathetic nose cutting off sort) as it would be morbidly fascinating to see the authoritarian state rise and those idiots realise what they’d done.

As it is I don’t see any way Trump wins. The economy is better. Democracy is on the ballot. Reproductive rights are on the table and there’s no way Trump has more votes than in 2020 and we’ve had 4 more years of what we’re 14-17 year olds get a ballot slip.

As previously I believe the polls are off by a good 4-5 points. They can’t deal with modern voting patterns and demographics and they were wrong in 2018, 2020 and 2022.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

If it wasn’t for the fact that the US is so important for a) the world and b) mine and my client’s money I’d be inclined to say “well if you fucking idiots don’t vote and Trump gets in then you deserve it” (not YOU but the “apathetic nose cutting off sort) as it would be morbidly fascinating to see the authoritarian state rise and those idiots realise what they’d done.

As it is I don’t see any way Trump wins. The economy is better. Democracy is on the ballot. Reproductive rights are on the table and there’s no way Trump has more votes than in 2020 and we’ve had 4 more years of what we’re 14-17 year olds get a ballot slip.

As previously I believe the polls are off by a good 4-5 points. They can’t deal with modern voting patterns and demographics and they were wrong in 2018, 2020 and 2022.

Don't underestimate the MSM effect on apathetic voters. Turnout will play a huge role in the outcome of the election. A low turnout is historically good for the Republican candidate.

 

[SWP's back]

Don't underestimate the MSM effect on apathetic voters. Turnout will play a huge role in the outcome of the election. A low turnout is historically good for the Republican candidate.

There will be zero excuse for apathy come November. I don’t think women who’ve been told what they can and can’t do with their bodies will be apathetic for a start.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

There will be zero excuse for apathy come November. I don’t think women who’ve been told what they can and can’t do with their bodies will be apathetic for a start.

I admire your optimism.

Maybe this is a step too far for him, but with this guy, you write him off at your peril. He always has a habit of coming up smelling of roses (metaphorically, of course).

 

[Gabriel]

As previously I believe the polls are off by a good 4-5 points. They can’t deal with modern voting patterns and demographics and they were wrong in 2018, 2020 and 2022.

I thought the polls were generally more accurate in 2022, with certain polls (e.g. Suffolk University/USAToday and the Sienna/New York Times) much more accurate. Maybe I’m wrong.

 

[SWP's back]

I thought the polls were generally more accurate in 2022, with certain polls (e.g. Suffolk University/USAToday and the Sienna/New York Times) much more accurate. Maybe I’m wrong.

They were forecasting a Red Wave no?

Edit. Yes. Yes they were.

 

[Gabriel]

They were forecasting a Red Wave no?

Edit. Yes. Yes they were.

I suppose it depends on who constitutes ‘they’ and which polls ‘they‘ rely upon.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

 

[SWP's back]

This is not bad news.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

how do they select the 'independent' voters for this?

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

how do they select the 'independent' voters for this?

It varies from state to state.

In New Hampshire, the caucus is run by the state as opposed to the Republican party. New Hampshire allows registered Republican voters, independents, and undeclared voters to vote in the Republican caucus.