I wish it were that easy…and you could not be angrier than I will be.
It will be close, almost regardless of who is running and when the vote occurs. It’s the nature of American presidential elections.
He could, and probably will, lose the national vote by millions of votes. That’s not important!
There are states that are red and states that are blue. In red states, blue votes don’t matter. In blue states, red votes don’t matter. Nature of the beast, I’m afraid.
What DOES matter is that there a few large states that have large blocks of Electoral College votes. How THOSE states vote REALLY MATTERS!
In fact, not only do they matter, but how the COMBINATION of their EC votes tot up is vitally important.
America is a PURPLE country. However, in a “winner take all” vote for nearly every state, the vote can be 10m to 10m+1 and the 10m+1 party gets ALL THE EC VOTES, so that state is painted that colour, even though it’s as purple as could be.
This election of about 160M votes is going to boil down 10-20,000 votes in a handful of states.