US Politics Thread

[domalino]

Will Harris be able to beat Trump should Biden not be able to go for a second term?

I'm not sanguine in a Harris victory in a Harris v. Trump election.

If Biden doesn't run, I fervently hope that the Democratic nominee is someone other than Harris.

Harris has been massively handicapped by the 50/50 senate of the last 2 years, she's had to be in DC pretty much every single day to be available to decide votes.

If the Democrats can win Georgia, she'll be free to do a lot more around the country, have more policy initiatives, build up her profile for election.

However I'd be looking at the Gergia governor election demographics and be very weary of a Harris presidential campaign. There are demographics in the USA who just will not vote for a black woman to be in power over them.

I also think one of the reasons Biden has done so well is (in the words of Fox News) "There's just not that much hate for Joe Biden out there like there was for Obama or Hillary". I think there's a lot of right wing hate towards Harris and maybe an outsider who hasn't had 8 years of solid demonisation from Fox and OANN will have a better chance at pulling centrist republicans and independents to the democrats.

 

[SWP's back]

Everything looks like Biden will go again

I can’t see it. Two years is a very long time at his age. Six, even more so.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

The DeSantis versus Trump Republican nomination scenario with DeSantis winning and Trump declaring as an independent is certainly possible, but I think unlikely - this outcome, should it transpire, would be almost perfect :-).

Unfortunately, this outcome requires multiple, mostly independent events to occur in sequence.

My firm belief remains: barring health, legal or other preventative issues - Trump is going to be the Republican nominee for President in 2024. This isn't necessarily a bad outcome, by the way - most of America hates Trump. Should he be the Republican nominee in 2024 - he starts with a huge uphill challenge (a lesson to which the MAGA Republicans are immune).

I respect your right to believe what you want, but in my view the data has changed, as I have laid out in several posts, which is what I base my belief on. This isn't 2015. Trump is running on his record now. The last time he did, he lost. The candidates who ran on his record in the mid-terms also lost. Republicans want to win, not lose. DeSantis just won. And not only won, annihilated his competition. While I am as cynical about the unshakeable faith of Trump cult members as anyone, it's clear that some members of it are wavering -- and that includes both big money donors and some Republican politicians. At least they say so now. But they have an alternative now that they didn't have before -- a winner who (in their minds) has the policies of Trump without all the specific douchebaggery of Trump. DeSantis may be a shiny object at the moment, but I think with good reason.

Sudden thought: Imagine DeSantis winning a few primaries, making it close, and Trump screaming "fraud"!

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Harris has been massively handicapped by the 50/50 senate of the last 2 years, she's had to be in DC pretty much every single day to be available to decide votes.

If the Democrats can win Georgia, she'll be free to do a lot more around the country, have more policy initiatives, build up her profile for election.

However I'd be looking at the Gergia governor election demographics and be very weary of a Harris presidential campaign. There are demographics in the USA who just will not vote for a black woman to be in power over them.

I also think one of the reasons Biden has done so well is (in the words of Fox News) "There's just not that much hate for Joe Biden out there like there was for Obama or Hillary". I think there's a lot of right wing hate towards Harris and maybe an outsider who hasn't had 8 years of solid demonisation from Fox and OANN will have a better chance at pulling centrist republicans and independents to the democrats.

This is a sharp perspective. The demoniz(s)ation of Joe Biden is a lot harder to pull off realistically. Hell, even a "vegetable" won in a purple state like Pennsylvania, and Fetterman is WAY more progressive than Biden and was a lot easier to demoniz(s)e BEFORE his stroke.

 

[domalino]

I can’t see it. Two years is a very long time at his age. Six, even more so.

He’s younger than Trump, so it’s really only an issue if DeSantis runs.

If it is DeSantis though Whitmer is my front runner, then Newsom, then Harris.

Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Warren might primary but I don’t see them winning.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

He’s younger than Trump, so it’s really only an issue if DeSantis runs.

If it is DeSantis though Whitmer is my front runner, then Newsom, then Harris.

Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Warren might primary but I don’t see them winning.

Whitmer is a good shout. Very good idea. I don't think Newsom has a snowball's chance in hell in a primary -- there are skeletons there best left undisturbed. Warren would almost make me vote for DeSantis. In some ways she's a bigger demogogue than Trump. I wouldn't count out Buttigieg yet. Good name recognition, sharp as a tack, young, but inexperienced -- and is it too early for a gay person to be President of the USA? Stupidly, probably.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

He’s younger than Trump, so it’s really only an issue if DeSantis runs.

If it is DeSantis though Whitmer is my front runner, then Newsom, then Harris.

Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Warren might primary but I don’t see them winning.

No, he isn't.

 

[domalino]

No, he isn't.

Ah ok. He's close enough that the right wing can't make age an issue.

 

[BayernMan]

Can’t wait for two years of sham investigations, impeachments, anti “woke” proposed legislation like anti-gay/trans bills, attempts to cut social security and Medicare by leveraging the debt ceiling and a government shutdown, and a whole lot of theatrics.

I don’t know why the GOP think this is a winning strategy that will get moderates and independents on their side but I’d like to see them try.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Can’t wait for two years of sham investigations, impeachments, anti “woke” proposed legislation like anti-gay/trans bills, attempts to cut social security and Medicare by leveraging the debt ceiling and a government shutdown, and a whole lot of theatrics.

I don’t know why the GOP think this is a winning strategy that will get moderates and independents on their side but I’d like to see them try.

Because "owning the libs" is their platform. Or was. I'm not sure it can be after the mid-terms. But if it is, fine, because them continuing down this path is party suicide. On the other hand though, it would be nice to heal some divisions and get some positive bipartisan work done.