Has Biden standing aside made it more or less likely that Trump wins?
I don't care who is president as long as it's not Trump.
Definitely less imo, but it still might not be enough.
Have to try and militate against self-imposed confirmation bias, but my rationale is I think pretty much anyone who was firmly for Biden will vote for Harris - and she will get more votes from the pro-Palistinians (and thereby Muslims), blacks, young voters and many women than Biden. At least in terms of them turning out, rather than them switching from voting for Trump.
Think she will also get the votes of quite a few undecideds who were just terrified about Biden’s manifest mental decline.
Think she can more readily open up a schism on abortion too. Think that’s probably a Republican Achilles heel in some of the key swing states.
Think pretty much anyone who won’t vote for a black woman weren’t going to vote Biden in any event, so no real net loss there.
Have no firm views on her abilities (yet) and the fact she’s been so conspicuously obscure for the last three and a half years isn’t, on the face of it, a good sign. But a quick look today at her CV, and it is impressive. And I thought she gave off a very good energy today. I found myself really liking her. Think that warmth will contrast well with Trump’s coldness.
But Trump has the momentum, and the assassination attempt (or whatever it was) in his favour, and unlike Biden, Harris is not really the incumbent. So it’s a big ask.
Long way to go yet.