US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

[TinFoilHat]

It took 4 days to declare a winner last time.

I'm hoping it only takes 4 hours this time around.

Even if Harris got 380 Electoral College votes the other guy was saying it's a fix.

 

[TinFoilHat]

If Harris loses, would she go down the route of taking legal action? You know Trump would.

Trumps already on it.

Loads of state cases already in the system. So much that one state official is taking it to the supreme court to get them struck off for wasting legal resources.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

If anyone still isn't convinced that a victory for Trump will be hugely destabilising worldwide, This is the guy currently running Trump's campaign.

Putin reportedly asked Elon Musk not to activate Starlink over Taiwan

According to a report from "The Wall Street Journal," Musk has been in contact with the Russian president on several occasions since 2022.

www.newsweek.com

 

[kaz7]

Because otherwise their lack of voting would decide the election. ;-)

But, in all seriousness, every state most provide an election, it is just a quirk of the composition of electorate (and heavy gerrymandering, mostly by Republicans) that has lead to the small number of battleground states being the decider. That is because the other states (with the possible exception of Iowa, it seems) are set to very likely fall for either Harris or Trump based on careful analysis of many different factors.

Now, that is not to say that there could not be a surprise or two (looking again at Iowa), but the vast majority of states are effectively “locked” for one candidate or another based on the make up of the voters and the districts in those states.

The battleground states are where that is not the case—they could conceivably go either way. So they are the ones most closely watched and scrutinised by political junkies, pollsters, analysts, and operatives, and courted by candidates and campaigns.

And this is why, to paraphrase a recent comment by the French minister, we are in a position where a small number of voters in Wisconsin can have a large role in setting the security policy of Europe.

Thank you lovely , it was a bit of a dumb blonde question ,lol

 

[BlueHammer85]

If Harris loses, would she go down the route of taking legal action? You know Trump would.

It's so boring and predictable that Trump will not accept the result if he loses and scream conspiracy about everything.

 

[Frank the Yank]

I am being honest. Harder in GA and in WI, but as I've said before, the anti-Lake and abortion constitutional amendment in AZ may help her turnout immensely, and by all accounts Trump's on-the-ground effort in NV is his worst in any swing state.

I do go back to a point made by many others -- where are Trump's additional votes coming from vs. the new votes coming from switcheroos, higher female participation, and the largest wave in several decades of kids turning 18 (including both mine, by the way)? I don't want to overstate this, but someone else kept talking about this being a maths problem. High turnout helps her, not him.

Oh, and by the way -- recall that point you made about down African-American turnout? Did you see the stat out yesterday or the day before that said it had dramatically reversed and was back to normal levels over the last week?

Don’t recall where I saw/ heard the claim that the black vote turnout is projected to be lower. I have heard from quite a few place where the black male vote will be historically high in Trumps favor.

everyone is talking about the women’s vote. I heard that Biden advantage amongst women is HIGHER than what the polling says about Harris’ advantage over Trump. Perhaps more women are voting for Trump than everyone thinks.

 

[Gabriel]

Perhaps the first woman president will be a Republican?

It is possible, to be sure, but the current political climate doesn't fill me with optimism. Haley garnered less than 20% of Republican votes in the primary elections, and the subsequent appeal to masculinity has only gotten louder. If Harris wins, then it removes the ceiling for all, but if she loses, I fear it will be reinforced for the foreseeable.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

These do shift over time (recently Florida was the king of swing states and is now a fairly safe Republican banker) but by and large the pollsters know which are safe and which are in play.

It’s all about the rust belt these days. They almost always vote together too which is why all the talk is about Pennsylvania.

Florida has a very transient population. Mostly older retired white folks who tend to be Republican but you never know.

Demographics are changing across America and with remote working more and more people are doing office jobs that would traditionally be in the big cities like new York or DC from places like florida and Georgia.

I work for a US firm and they actively push their Pennsylvania and Florida office locations over New York as its so much cheaper to hire staff.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Thanks. How do you see the election going ? I wouldnt wish trump on anyone

I have been told by my wife that I am "not allowed to jinx it like you did in 2016" so therefore, I shall offer no predictions :).

As I copied from elsewhere, I am nauseously optimistic. I am heartened to see Harris' rallies filled to the brim with huge lines waiting to get in while Trump's are half-full.

I was concerned about her ability to organis(z)e and manage a campaign (as I've mentioned before, I have a few friends who worked on her Presidential and Senate campaigns who said she isn't the best manager) but she and her team have done a masterful job under the circumstances here.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I follow global politics quite closely though tend to avoid posting in the politics threads on here as, as this thread perfectly demonstrates today, they tend to be full of absolute cranks and weirdos.

(Not you!)