US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

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I've got CNN on while working and the amount airtime they've got to fill with meaningless waffle is genuinely really impressive.

I'd just be sat there in silence not having a clue to what go on about for hours and hours and hours.
 
08:00 GMT tomorrow

But I can give you a preview:

It will become abundantly clear Harris will very likely win more than 270 Electoral College votes (the threshold to win the election, even with some states still receiving and counting votes well after today) around 23:00 GMT, but by then Trump and his cronies will have already begun declaring the election rigged, claiming—without credible evidence—that there was widespread fraud orchestrated by the “cheating Democrats”, and will refuse to concede.

That will begin the weeks long process of Republican governors and state/local officials of several swing states either attempting to resist intense pressure from the MAGA camp to help Trump or executing a preplanned operation to help Trump, with hundreds of lawsuits filed from both sides regarding election practices and counts (on top of the ones already filed prior to the election, mostly by Republicans to setup the “rigged election” narrative).
What time does Rudi Guiliani call a press conference at one of the scruffy burger fans they always have in the car park at B&Q?
 
It seems really odd listening to Vance give an aspirational message while taking questions having gone to vote - no-one does here because the media aren't allowed to broadcast it anyway.

Suddenly, he's all congenial big-tent respect-thy-neighbour mode, although insisting on using Trump's middle initial sounds weird.
 
Maybe, maybe not. Who knows. This election is ridiculously unpredictable - metrics such as polls and betting markets are questionable in terms of predicting the outcome given their poor performance over the past 4-to-8 years or so.
The main reason I say that is I certainly doubt PA will be called by then and maybe not NC, WI and MI.

AZ and NV won’t be either. But if Harris holds GA then that’s a huge boost. Might not even know about GA then either.
 
IMHO 2300 GMT is too early.
Obviously I could be wrong — but I currently think it will be fairly clear Trump has no (legitimate) path to victory based on statistical analysis of the voting logged through this evening.

My comment was not speaking to official results, but rather the data analysis and results projections based on logged votes and remaining votes to be received in the context of likely voting, which is the method reputable media outlets like the AP use to call an election (otherwise they would always have to wait for a week or more to call it).
 
The main reason I say that is I certainly doubt PA will be called by then and maybe not NC, WI and MI.

AZ and NV won’t be either. But if Harris holds GA then that’s a huge boost. Might not even know about GA then either.
Cheers. I think that it'll be close as well... but given the unreliability of polls, betting markets, and news outlet takes... what are we left with? Chaos.

That said, I think that Harris will win. But my take is definitely a product of the media I've consumed which is almost exclusively left-leaning.
 
I really hope so - but the betting on Betfair has been shortening for Trump during the morning. 1.61 now for Trump and 2.6 for Harris - that is a big margin in a 2-horse race

Others have said that the betting is skewed - but money is clearly going on Trump and people don't normally actively throw money away

I wish I had enough confidence in what people say - could make good profit on Harris (if she wins)

Markets aren't a good indicator. Trump was 3/1 the night before in 2016
 
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