with the CL draw almost upon us

[Anonymous]

Prediction from me for what it is worth:

Barca
Juve
City
Anderlecht

 

[JoeMercer'sWay]

The key is the split of the draw into two halves. So City/rags, Chelsea/Arse, Bayern/Dortmund/, Real/Barca and Porto/Benfica will all be in separate halves of the draw so their nearest domestic rivals don't have clashing TV dates. Based on the above likely seedings this means that one of City's pot 1 teams will be Chelsea or Arsenal. So that leaves City with either Bayern, Barca/Real or Porto/Benfica as their pot 1 team. If City draw Bayern or are in pot 3 we won't get Dortmund. If we draw Barca or Real we won't get Atletico Madrid. Any draw except AC Milan or Juventus from pot 2 can give us Napoli from pot 4. The one to avoid is PSG from pot 2 which City or any pot 1 team in the same half of the draw could get.

Don't forget it was this split halves of the draw that stitched us up last year. We got Dortmund as our pot 4 team simply because Bayern were in the other half of the draw and left Chelsea and the rags (who were in Bayern's half) with Norsdsjaelland and Cluj respectively. As far as Dortmund were concerned there was simply no other group left that they could be drawn in.

I don't hold with the "I don't care who we get. Bring 'em on" school of thought. That's what we got the last two seasons. I'd much prefer a winnable group than another group of death.

I'd happily settle for Porto, Olympiacos and Viktoria Plzen/Maribor. I'd hate to see us get the likes of Barca, PSG and Napoli.

I think because of Porto and Benfica both being in Pot 1 this year that Bayern have to be in our half of the draw so therefore we can't get Dortmund regardless of what happens.

We should go on the assumption that AC Milan will go through. This will mean that for arguments sake we go into the Blue half of the draw(colours are irrelevant really), our Pot 1 candidates would be Real/Barca, Bayern, Porto/Benfica.

Let's say Red is Groups A-D, and blue is E-F.

The 4 red would be Barca/Real, United, Arsenal/Chelsea, Benfica/Porto.
The 4 blue would be Barca/Real, Bayern, Arsenal/Chelsea, Benfica/Porto.

It's really neither here nor there for the Portuguese teams, but I have an inkling on Barca so reckon they'd be in our half of the draw. I also think Chelsea will be in our half as they are a stronger draw and I don't think TV would want United & Chelsea on the same night. So I'd go for:

Red A: Real, B: United, C: Porto, D: Arsenal.
Blue E: Barcelona, F: Chelsea, G: Bayern, H: Benfica.

If you go into Pot 2 by AC getting through they would have to be seperate from Juventus. PSG would have to be seperate from Marseille and CSKA Moskva would go into the opposite group from Zenit. I think Sociedad are knocking out Lyon so Juventus would be in Pot 2, Zenit in Pot 3.

Thus you have to look at the most marketable Pot 2 teams. PSG and Juventus are strong, as are Shakhtar. Marseille are Pot 1 fodder as are CSKA Moskva, Atletico I reckon would go into a different half from Real out of principle, Schalke would go in Bayern's half imo.

So you sum that up:

Red: Marseille, Juventus, CSKA Moskva, Shakhtar.
Blue: PSG, AC Milan, Atletico, Schalke.

So drawing logically from that you get:

Red A: Real Madrid, CSKA Moskva
B: United, Marseille,
C: Porto, Juventus,
D: Arsenal, Shakhtar,

Blue
E: Barcelona, AC Milan,
F: Chelsea, Schalke,
G: Bayern, Atletico
H: Benfica, PSG,

Onto Pot 3 and by virtue of CSKA Moskva being Red Zenit would be in the blue half. As United are Red we would be blue and Dortmund would be red as Bayern are blue. I believe if Sociedad knock out Lyon then Leverkusen go into 3 which would mean they go into red with Dortmund.

Red: Dortmund, Olympiakos, Ajax, Leverkusen.
Blue: Zenit, Man City, Galatasaray, Basel.

Red A: Real Madrid, CSKA Moskva, Olympiakos,
B: United, Marseille, Dortmund,
C: Porto, Juventus, Leverkusen,
D: Arsenal, Shakhtar, Ajax

Blue
E: Barcelona, AC Milan, Man City,
F: Chelsea, Schalke, Zenit,
G: Bayern, Atletico, Basel,
H: Benfica, PSG, Galatasaray,

Onto D and I think the only seeding would be Sociedad in Red as Atletico are blue, the rest would be unseeded.

Red: Real Sociedad, Napoli, Austria Wien, Steaua.
Blue: Shakhter Karagandy, Viktoria Plzen, FC Kobenhavn, Anderlecht.

Red A: Real Madrid, CSKA Moskva, Olympiakos, Napoli.
B: United, Marseille, Dortmund, Austria Wien.
C: Porto, Juventus, Leverkusen, Steaua.
D: Arsenal, Shakhtar, Ajax, Real Sociedad.

Blue
E: Barcelona, AC Milan, Man City, Anderlecht.
F: Chelsea, Schalke, Zenit, FC Kobenhavn.
G: Bayern, Atletico, Basel, Viktoria Plzen.
H: Benfica, PSG, Galatasaray, Shakhter Karagandy.

I know that's mostly guesswork but working on the basis that UEFA will want its big money makers through then Real and Napoli should go through in A if they see off CSKA, United would have Dortmund but should see off Marseille, Juventus, Porto and Leverkusen would fight for Last 16 berths(UEFA won't mind too much who goes through), Arsenal & Shakhtar should dispose of Ajax and Sociedad. In our half it would be a battle between us and AC for 2nd, Chelsea would go through with a decent team, Bayern & Atletico would expect to go through and PSG would go through with either Benfica or Galatasaray. I think although it won't be exactly like that I think with the permutations it could end up quite similar to that.

 

[samharris]

Prediction from me for what it is worth:

Barca
Juve
City
Anderlecht

Could be worse..

 

[Como Cat]

I'm far from being an expert on European football but surely, if we we're capable of winning our own league then the only teams in Pot 2 we should be apprehensive of are PSG and Juve, and in Pot 4 just Napoli. There's also a possibilty of drawing Benfica or Porto from pot 1, neither of whom should scare us. We would have to be very very unlucky to be in another draw like last season. Although, I do absolutely agree that the draw is rigged and Arsenal's participation verges on the pointless (but they'd be buggered if they finished outside of our top 4) I'm confident that if we can cut out the individual errors of the last two seasons we're heading for at least the quarter-finals. I predict Barca, CSKA Moscow and Celtic.

 

[squirtyflower]

great work again JMW although i think you need a PhD in rocket science to follow uefa's rules on the draw

 

[BlueAnorak]

Found the TV Pairings for those who are interested. Should PSV progress, Juventus and Napoli will be paired. If they don't , Ajax can go red or blue. I've put them both in to make it easier.

TV Pairings:
Manchester City x Manchester United -----> Chelsea x Arsenal
FC Bayern x Bor.Dortmund -----> Leverkusen x Schalke
FC Barcelona x Real Madrid -----> Atlético Madrid x Real Sociedad
AC Milan x Juventus -----> Napoli not paired
PSG x Marseille
FC Porto x S.L. Benfica
CSKA Moscow x FC Zenit
Ajax x PSV Eindhoven

Red or Blue:
Shakhtar Donetsk
Olympiacos
Galatasaray
Anderlecht
F.C. Kobenhavn
F.C. Basel
Austria Wien
Shakhter Karagandy
Steaua București
FC Viktoria Plzeň

Where did you find them?
If here <a class="postlink" href="http://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum/view.php?topic=20130811043234.xml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum/view.php ... 043234.xml</a> then these are only possible pairings.
In 2011-12 we were paired with Arsenal.
In 2012-13 we were paired with Utd.
I seem to remember that It is totally up to the PRIMARY broadcaster and I would guess that with Jose back they could revert to United & Chelsea.
They chose us and Utd last season because of the close finish the season before. For all I know it could even be based on League position.

It's seemingly like a QI 'Nobody Knows' question because I can't find it listed by any search engine. So if you have a categorical answer and a source I would be delighted if you would share it.
A link please if you have one.

 

[JoeMercer'sWay]

great work again JMW although i think you need a PhD in rocket science to follow uefa's rules on the draw

PhD in making lots of money whilst keeping powerful people happy more like.

 

[Bill]

The most corrupt set of officials in sport, even worse greedy too.

 

[toffee balls]

Even money we get PSG.

You know we will

 

[Joburg Hero]

Barca, MIlan and Anderlecht? That's the dream, absolute dream. Two of the finest stadiums in the world, a massive match vs Barca with Yaya eager to smash them in, a return for Balotelli and Nige, plus, Milan are a beatable side home and away, then an easy six points against Anderlecht which takes Komps back to his roots. That would be a special, special group.