Would you take a draw against Arsenal?

[roubaixtuesday]

Interesting

538 give us a 76% chance of winning as things stand now so let’s look at what we have to gain and lose…

If we win our chances increase by 15%
If we draw our chances decrease by 4%
If we lose our chances decrease by 32%

So now we see which is better..

Now let’s look at the chances of a win vs a loss

City win 62%
Draw 19%
Arsenal win 19%

62% chance of being 15% better off = 9.3 City win
19% chance of being 4% worse off = 0.76 Draw
19% chance of being 32% worse off = 6.08 Arsenal win

So if we play the match we have 9.3% minus 6.84% = our chances of winning the league goes up by 2.46%

If we accept a draw as a definite we know that we are 4% worse off.

That suggests that we should take our chances and play the match…not that we have a choice!

PS I’ve not checked my logic and I think I would still take the draw!!

 

[M16 citeh]

Start thinking a draw will do and you’re fucked. Dropping points to them at home will be a massive boost to them and a blow to you psychologically. Draws fuck all. You are better than them and you need to show it by putting them to the sword. And putting them to that sword should be the only thing acceptable.

Bang on
Its not just the points it's the psychological blow

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Interesting

538 give us a 76% chance of winning as things stand now so let’s look at what we have to gain and lose…

If we win our chances increase by 15%
If we draw our chances decrease by 4%
If we lose our chances decrease by 32%

So now we see which is better..

Now let’s look at the chances of a win vs a loss

City win 62%
Draw 19%
Arsenal win 19%

62% chance of being 15% better off = 9.3 City win
19% chance of being 4% worse off = 0.76 Draw
19% chance of being 32% worse off = 6.08 Arsenal win

So if we play the match we have 9.3% minus 6.84% = our chances of winning the league goes up by 2.46%

If we accept a draw as a definite we know that we are 4% worse off.

That suggests that we should take our chances and play the match…not that we have a choice!

PS I’ve not checked my logic and I think I would still take the draw!!

I think your logic checks out it’s just all about how reliable the modelling of the stats companies is.

Essentially, what you’re saying is that based on Opta’s projections and 538s analysis of the current position the expected value of a win OR loss is higher than that of a draw.

So statistically a non-draw outcome has higher utility to us on average.

That tracks for me and makes intuitive sense. A draw changes very little, a win (which is more likely anyway) makes it very hard for Arsenal, a loss just evens the playing field and we’d still be fairly likely to win anyway.

 

[crystal_mais]

They need a win - it depends if they want to go toe to toe or sit back and hit us on the counter. We need to keep them quiet for the first 20mins

The longer the game goes they will need to open up which will allow us to pick them off. We just need to stop them scoring early in the game.

I'd go with the Bayern game formation - and get Bernies energy in there.

 

[dronefromsector7G]

Still no. I’m not sure we will win all the other games, although I don’t think Arsenal will either

 

[Mancini’s Pastilles]

You best beleive I'm not taking 2 days off work and flying over for a draw

 

[SkyBlueCanuck]

This game is identical to the home game against Liverpool last season which also happened to be around the same time. Mahrez missed the goal right at the end, we drew the game 2-2 and maintained a 1 point lead over them. In the remaining fixtures, Liverpool drew one game against Spurs and City drew one against West Ham maintaining that slender lead all the way.
We simply need to win this to avoid another nervy repeat of last season.

Thanks for the reminder... you've gone and stressed out my entire morning.

 

[Dukefan9]

I just hope Ake can play. Laporte makes things less certain

 

[Cobwebcat]

So to sum up

Win and it is almost there
Draw and we are still favourites
Lose and it’s advantage Arsenal who are then more likely to win the PL

= Don’t Lose

 

[Corky]

It is implied from the bookies that the odds of City winning the league are 77.5% and Arsenal 22.5% . Weird how models follow the betting, but it takes them a few days longer.