Your Political Predictions for 2024

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Roland will be long gone before the GE.

Tories are stuck with Rishy. They can't afford another shambolic round of resignations and a leadership battle. Who would win it anyway? Liz Truss again?

Rishy will be the pm and will call a ge in October. Basically as late as he can hoping people come down with collective amneizue.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I think that would be a grave mistake for anyone in the west to accept that. If America wants to reduce its spending on Ukraine then Western Europe will need to pony up.

I'm not suggesting it's a good thing, just seems inevitable. Your point about US v European defence spending is one trump (for all his many faults) was making. The US desire to maintain a military footprint in Europe has allowed us Europeans to do defence on the cheap for decades.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Tories are stuck with Rishy. They can't afford another shambolic round of resignations and a leadership battle. Who would win it anyway? Liz Truss again?

Rishy will be the pm and will call a ge in October. Basically as late as he can hoping people come down with collective amneizue.

I expect a couple of quarters of economic growth to be engineered, maybe a decent interest rate cut and a cynical give away budget just prior. Probably some election pledges on huge tax cuts from the Tories - they know they will not be in power to have to deliver on them and labour won't match them. Add in some grandstanding on immigration and trans rights etc and the labour majority will be much slimmer than it should be or most people predict.

 

[Scottyboi]

I'm not suggesting it's a good thing, just seems inevitable. Your point about US v European defence spending is one trump (for all his many faults) was making. The US desire to maintain a military footprint in Europe has allowed us Europeans to do defence on the cheap for decades.

Europe was happy to let US cover the defence whilst we turned a blind eye to russia and lapped up their cheap oil. Embarrassing really, Germany is finally starting to wake up and smell the coffee.

Hard to say what the next year brings for Ukraine, they are working really hard on their own war time economy for advanced weaponry and drones without having to rely on the west so much. The economy in russia should start to pinch in the next 12 months India and China are taking advantage and ripping the russians off as much as possible.

We already had a failed coup this year so who knows what is round the corner.

 

[TinFoilHat]

And how do you be see that impacting on The West’s relationship with Russia going forward?

I honestly don't know? Or a better way to put it I don't think I fully understand any of the geo politics of the world.

 

[Scottyboi]

I predict -

No general election until legally required
Israel to annex all of Gaza and demolish it then rebuild as their own, whilst losing loads of soldiers and civilians to insurgency and acting like they are victims.
Ukraine to make some small gains in the south and russia to be on the verge hyper inflation and civil war.
Trump to not be in the running and Biden to win another term.

 

[TinFoilHat]

A leftfield one for the US elections.


Neither Biden or Trump end up running.

Nicky Haley V Kamala Harris - Haley Wins.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Here’s a fun one to throw into the mix…

China’s economy is flagging, Xi gets desperate in 2024 and decides to invade Taiwan plunging us all into another WWIII by proxy scenario.

 

[TinFoilHat]

Here’s a fun one to throw into the mix…

China’s economy is flagging, Xi gets desperate in 2024 and decides to invade Taiwan plunging us all into another WWIII by proxy scenario.

Or he's overthrown.

Rumblings his party blame him and planning his removal.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Or he's overthrown.

Rumblings his party blame him and planning his removal.

Yes, also a distinct possibility.

It’s very difficult to understand China, they seem to have gone through many incarnations of leadership, you’d think such a large bureaucracy would be more inflexible to change but they have gone through drastically different political directions - some that promoted relations and free trade, others that have been much more isolationist. The only common thread is that whatever is decided, it is done because it best serves China.