Your Political Predictions for 2024

[jim tolmies perm]

no matter what they do the Tories can't shift the polls - I predict they are done what I can't predict is how badly - I suspect the longer they hang on the poorer the outlook for them is simply because it looks like they are just milking the salary

Htf does a 20 point win only convert into a 46 seat majority..? Fucking insane
Yes I understand the Lib Dem /SNP angle and tactical voting but in 97 it was 100 more seat majority.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Same shit we have had for the last 150 years but repackaged as "different" or "new" so that the younger people can soak it up being edgy until later in their lives they realise they've been fucked over.

Now their children will follow a better new improved system that will put all others to shame.

You sound jaded mate :)

Didn’t you know the children are our future? Whitney taught me that.

I think there’s a lot of truth to what you say, but I also look at how far we’ve come since the days of workhouses, 7 day work weeks and rampant cholera and that tells me that progress is slow but possible. In 1970, 35% of people in developing countries were malnourished, now it’s more like 10-15%. A hundred years ago global literacy rates were 20%, now they’re 90%. This is obviously less to do with politics and more to do with technology but it does show you how resilient progress is against the false promises of political leaders.

Don’t get me wrong, we have started to go backwards on some of these things but I think with enough time and enough good people the world will eventually be a better place.

 

[mexico1970]

You sound jaded mate :)

Didn’t you know the children are our future? Whitney taught me that.

I think there’s a lot of truth to what you say, but I also look at how far we’ve come since the days of workhouses, 7 day work weeks and rampant cholera and that tells me that progress is slow but possible. In 1970, 35% of people in developing countries were malnourished, now it’s more like 10-15%. A hundred years ago global literacy rates were 20%, now they’re 90%. This is obviously less to do with politics and more to do with technology but it does show you how resilient progress is against the false promises of political leaders.

Don’t get me wrong, we have started to go backwards on some of these things but I think with enough time and enough good people the world will eventually be a better place.

The older you get the more you get some clarity, before your mind turns to mush and the nurse puts you back into the 3/4 prone position that is ;)

Poets sitting in cafes discussing the ills of the world trying to fine tune it to make it better, these people were upper class youths, fast forward to the Edwardian time and the middle classes get their shot at telling people how to live and what to like.

Now we have influencers and Twitter (X) agents trying to form a revolution based on their extensive life challenges (Which fucking latte to order with their soya milk) and so it goes on.

Nothing changes it's all the same, there's them and us and when there isn't a them and us they'll invent a them and us just to keep us interested and in line.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Htf does a 20 point win only convert into a 46 seat majority..? Fucking insane
Yes I understand the Lib Dem /SNP angle and tactical voting but in 97 it was 100 more seat majority.

I presume PeoplePolling is a reputable pollster but I’m racking my head at this. There is about a 200-year long relationship between vote share and seats won for the Tories which has a very strong correlation and this result would blow that model to pieces.

The idea they could come out with their worst vote share in parliamentary history by quite some margin, with a Reform party that’s stealing their votes in key marginals and yet still scrape together 200 seats is the stuff of wildly excessive fantasy. YouGov is forecasting 170 seats with their MRP which I think is possible but immensely generous given it would be a Major-esque result with a lower vote share. I’m not sure there’s a vote configuration that’s actually possible where 25% = 200 seats. That would require them to have only a slightly lower vote concentration as the SNP got in 2019, a party that competes in 59 seats and got 42% of the vote. How? Electoral calculus puts it at 130 seats with these vote shares.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Three predictions:
1) Trump is convicted in one or more of the 4 felony criminal cases he now faces prior the the 2024 election;
2) Because of 1, Biden is the next US President;
3) Democrats take majority control of both the House and Senate due to numerous factors, key among them introduction of abortion rights measures in the 2024 ballots.

 

[BrianW]

Htf does a 20 point win only convert into a 46 seat majority..? Fucking insane
Yes I understand the Lib Dem /SNP angle and tactical voting but in 97 it was 100 more seat majority.

Because we have a crooked voting system where your share of the vote is not reflected in the number of seats you achieve.

 

[cleavers]

They'll all be as bad as each other, both sides of the pond.

 

[TinFoilHat]

Who had WW3 by proxy?

 

[KS55]

If there’s a GE, which is by no means certain, a hung parliament. Rishi resigns.UK growth very low.
Biden easily wins US election and down the ballot wins lots of positions.
Democrats control White House, Senate and the House. US economy outperforms G7.
Xi ousted. Chinese economy in a very bad shape with huge debts.
Major violence in bankrupt Pakistan.
Religious Unrest in Modl led India.
Russia- Ukraine war turns against Russia in Crimea. They fight a rearguard action. Putin hangs on.
Germany sanctions AFD.
EU wanders on with huge debts and slow growth. Germany blocks
mutualisation of debt.
East Asia population shrinks further. Growth low.
City are champions again after defeating 115 charges. Khaldoon knighted.
Redbird finance take over of Telegraph and appoint all British editorial trust.
KS55 guarantees all predictions will be wrong.

 

[Alvin-blue-qhd]

Some thoughts on the Chinese economy

How to correctly understand China's economy? If you focus on real estate, the stock market and local debts, you will feel that the economy is terrible. If you focus on agriculture and industry, you will feel that China is capable of anything. The truth is that China's economy is composed of a variety of industries. Some of them are performing poorly, while others are performing well.

In the industrial sector, the current popular concept is "domestic substitution". In the past, equipment and materials that needed to be imported from Western countries at high prices are now being gradually replaced by locally produced products. The technological and trade sanctions imposed by the US government are accelerating this process.

Westerners often believe that China's economy relies on exports and price advantages brought by cheap labor. This view is inaccurate. China has realized that it cannot rely on exports to build itself into a developed country. China's economy emphasizes "internal circulation". For a country with a population of 1.4 billion, it is impossible to build its economy on external market dependency.

The real difficulties and challenges in China's economy lies in management. Chinese people are familiar with agriculture and industry. If you view China as a giant factory, there is no problem, China knows how to build a factory. But the real world is much more complex than a factory. Society is composed of many different commercial activities, and each commercial sector needs proper management if it wants to develop healthily. This takes time, because every business has its own logic, you need time to observe it, find a way to manage it, and implement it for a long time to make these management methods routine. These routines become part of the culture. All of this takes time, and China has not had much time to become rich from poverty, only 20 to 30 years.

Westerners often believe that all industries in China are strongly regulated by the government and that everyone is under surveillance. This is a very wrong impression. The truth is exactly the opposite. A large number of commercial activities lack management. Either there are no rules and regulations, or the rules and regulations have not been implemented.

Chinese football is an example. The Chinese professional league is full of bribery and unfair competition. In the past, people used to think that as long as you inject funds into the football industry and reduce regulation, relying on market forces can automatically lead Chinese football to the right development path. What happened next proved that this was just an illusion. It was not until recently that Chinese football began to study management methods such as "fiscal fair play" that require all clubs to control their debts.

If we view "becoming an advanced economy where various commercial activities operate well" as a goal, China's economy has only traveled 30% of the way. There is still a lot of work to be done. That also means that China's economy still has enormous potential. At this moment, China is in a state of "just beginning to understand what is really needed".