What percentage chance of going through (both now and when the draw was made)

[Slashman X]

How 0-0's have gone for the home side in the 1st leg:
2015/16 - Last 16 - PSV drew 0-0 but went out on penalties to Atletico. - LOST
2014/15 - Quarter Final - Atletico lost 2nd leg to Real 1-0. - LOST
2014/15 - Last 16 - Shakhtar lost 7-0 in the return leg to Bayern - LOST
2013/14 - Semi Final - Atletico beat Chelsea 3-1. - WON
2012/13 - Quarter Final - Malaga lost 3-2 to Dortmund - LOST
2011/12 - Quarter Final - Milan lost 3-1 to Barcelona - LOST
2010/11 - Last 16 - Marseille lost 2-1 to Man Utd - LOST
2008/09 - Semi Final - Barcelona drawn 1-1 with Chelsea and went through on away goals - WON
2008/09 - Last 16 - Inter lost 2-0 to Man Utd - LOST
2007/08 - Semi Final - Barcelona lost 1-0 to Man Utd - LOST
2007/08 - Last 16 - Arsenal won 2-0 against Milan - WON
2007/08 - Last 16 - Olympiakos lost 3-0 to Chelsea - LOST
2006/07 - Last 16 - Roma won 2-0 against Lyon - WON
2006/07 - Last 16 - Celtic lost 1-0 to Milan after extra time - LOST
2005/06 - Quarter Final - Lyon lost 3-1 to Milan - LOST
2005/06 - Quarter Final - Benfica lost 2-0 to Barcelona - LOST

I only went back 10 years but history doesn't look brilliant for us, particularly recent history, 12 went OUT but 4 went THROUGH, but of course we still have a chance, 25% on those stats. Although the past 3 semi finals where the side at home has drawn 0-0, 2 out of 3 have gone through, so you could say we have a 66.6% chance.

These are a tiny bit misleading given that the group winners are always away from home in the first leg in last 16, whereas matches after that are a 'free draw'.

 

[Uncle Wally One Ball]

All this analysis..it will quite clearly all come down to whether we wear the cursed navy blue moon kit or the green one. Obviously.

 

[MCFC1993]

These are a tiny bit misleading given that the group winners are always away from home in the first leg in last 16, whereas matches after that are a 'free draw'.

It actually works out the same on the 'free draw', theres 8 quarter and semi-finals there, 6 went out 2 went through, 25%. Like I say if you look at Semi-Finals alone on that list then we have a 66.6% chance, which is an optimistic way of looking at past results!

 

[The Cityzen]

can't get my head straight about yesterday's match.
i mean, yeah, its Real Madrid and we held them to a 0-0.
that sounds great but Real was without Cr7 and Benzema.
and have to say, we didn't create any chances as close as they did with those set-pieces of theirs.
they thought we might attack. we thought they might attack. both teams played with caution.
taking everything into consideration (absence of their top players, Real's lacklustre performance, home advantage) yesterday should have been a 1-0 in our favour not a 0-0.

 

[Pablo ZZZ Peroni]

You've answered your own question mate because the Group Stages are decided on head to head if the team's are level.
Like I said, I'm not a Pellegrini apologist, but that's how he set his teams up for the home games.

Tenuous to the extreme.

You said "Often progressing after a goaless home first leg and then going for the away goal" That sounds like you were talking about the knock-out rounds because the away goal is not directly relevant in the group stages. There isn't 1 example in the knock out rounds that it happened let alone "often".

And if you were talking about the group stages the only example is in 2005/2006 where they played and drew the home leg 0-0 against United and then drew the away leg 0-0 at Old Trafford. These were the 1st and 5th games in the group. Villareal topped the group and United were bottom and there was no head to head involved.

 

[worsleyweb]

We have scored in 78.88% of games this season.

If we score Real need 2 to beat us. We have concede 2 or more in 43.75% of games this season.

.7888 x .4375 = Real have a 33.54% chance of beating us based on the above however.

We have scored more than 1 in 55.76% of games this season.

so Real would need 3 to beat us.

Therefore .3354 x .5576 = 18%.

Conclusion - we have a real chance and last nights was a good result.

 

[FanchesterCity]

They setup defensively and for large parts of the game, they looked to be content with 0-0 (and I think we probably were too).
In the 2nd leg, I suspect we'd be happy to go to penalties, but I doubt they would want to risk that lottery - so will need to come out and try to score. Which (in theory) should give us a little more chance of countering.
The only need 1-0 but that would a very nervous scoreline to hold, so really they'll only come into their own at 2-0. Their aim will be to get 2 goals as soon as they can, then kill the game off. The longer they go without doing so, the more nervous they'll get and the more encouraged we will be.

It's not a foregone conclusion that RM will win. Obviously our best chance would have been to go their with a lead, but a draw is ok, and a goalless draw is better than ok.

 

[Mr Ed (The Stables)]

I'm pleased that we are still in this. lets face it any win or any draw (as long as we win the penalty shoot out) and we are through, I'd have settled for that before a ball was kicked last night. Remember we don't have to win in Madrid 1-1 would do nicely.....come on City!!!

 

[Chi-town blues]

Percentage ? But based on theory of probability .. Advantage city.
Hello Milan !!

 

[Madridista2016]

Statistically you have a 30%.

In the practice you're good enough to beat us, 50% is more realistic. We're at a very similar level at the moment.

We tend to lose when we are favorites in semis. This is a tradition that statistics don't count but it's very real.