Another new Brexit thread

[Mon Autre]

I think the argument is the definition of what poverty is.

Thought so based on the use of quotation marks around "poverty". I don't think their definition is especially broad though. It sounds a lot like poverty to me.

 

[Ban-jani]

Thought so based on the use of quotation marks around "poverty". I don't think their definition is especially broad though. It sounds a lot like poverty to me.

I’m not lending myself to either argument, I just think it’s not necessarily numbers that are the problem, it’s the actual definition used for people in those numbers.

 

[Vic]

No Vic, they're YOUR reasons we voted to leave.
They're not mine, or anyone I know, and I know quite a few.
But carry on, we're used to it.

I didn't say they were the only reasons. That was your implication.

I'm sure your reaaon(s) are more principled but they will still be crap.

 

[inbetween]

I think you will find it works pretty well for Labour when you look at their safe seats in deprived areas.

Trying to keep safe seats won't win Labour an election though.

 

[Vic]

That's right. We should be considering a 150 year time frame like 1632 did.

Won't City's lease be nearly up on the stadium by then? Better start selling off the seats now to show how prepared we are.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Trying to keep safe seats won't win Labour an election though.

Many of these safe seats are in the north, where most voted to leave, which is a problem, to say the least.

 

[west didsblue]

No, I don't get that either. Given a significant element of the 'no' campaign in the first referendum was 'vote no to remain in the uk' and many Scots voted no because of that single factor, I don't know where he is coming from.

I think he probably means that cancellation of Brexit would be brought about by a temporary alliance of anti-Brexit parties and the SNP price for joining the alliance is a second indyref, and they might just vote for it this time because of the shit that England has put them through with the whole Brexit thing. What he hasn't considered is that the Scots will be even more pissed off if we actually do leave and will force an IndyRef anyway that would almost definitely take them out of the UK. He needs to follow his own advice and think things through.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I think he probably means that cancellation of Brexit would be brought about by a temporary alliance of anti-Brexit parties and the SNP price for joining the alliance is a second indyref, and they might just vote for it this time because of the shit that England has put them through with the whole Brexit thing. What he hasn't considered is that the Scots will be even more pissed off if we actually do leave and will force an IndyRef anyway that would almost definitely take them out of the UK. He needs to follow his own advice and think things through.

you might be right mate. The vast majority of scots are mightily pissed off with being pulled out of the EU against the will of the country (to use a phrase)

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I'm not referring to your opinion, I'm referring to your qualified statements, which, after a few minutes
reflection, are now starting to bite a tad, there is already furious back peddling, we're now onto 'Significantly diminished'
which makes it even more amusing.
This is why all the scare mongering pre referendum was ignored, the exact opposite to what was forecast came to pass.
Anyway, roll on November.

5th of November?
Re-enactment of Guy Fawkes?
Maybe they'll get it right this time.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Remain isn’t more likely to make Scotland leave the UK is it? When we were set to stay in the EU they voted to stay, now we’re set to leave, they want to go.

How is this simple fact not registering?

Use your analytical powers.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Many of these safe seats are in the north, where most voted to leave, which is a problem, to say the least.

Yes and no. These communities will never vote tory and the brexit party will only appeal to some of the hard core leavers of which there are not that many in any event. I am not intending to vote labour but I dont see them losing masses of seats in the north.

 

[Silvas' left eyebrow]

Yet more pointless and totally irrelevant shite off twitter.
17.4 million whipped up by the far right and nationalism.
It naturally follows that 16.4 million voted solely on fear and trepidation, and the malign influences of a US
president, a leaflet partly paid for by leave voters, and them cacking themselves at the prospect of losing their
jobs and, if they manage not to, to immediately be paying 10% extra tax.
To keep seeing this post vote bad loser Violet Elizabeth Bott tribute act is still funny, but it's beginning to pall a tad.

Some of the Nordic countries have high tax and in surveys their citizens are some of the happiest people.

Low taxes are not to be celebrated.....higher tax revenue used wisely CAN improve health services, infra structure education and the environment.
Low tax actually only really benefit the rich.......

 

[Vic]

.

Yes and no. These communities will never vote tory and the brexit party will only appeal to some of the hard core leavers of which there are not that many in any event. I am not intending to vote labour but I dont see them losing masses of seats in the north.

It's better than that. The Tory leave voters will split between the Tories and the Brexit party. The Tory remain voters will decamp to the LibDems. The minority of Labour voters who voted Leave will vote BP or will still vote Labour. And the majority of Labour voters (who voted Remain) will still vote Labour.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

The GFA is flawed, though.

Let's say, for argument, that the result of the referendum had been 75%-25% in favour of leaving. Would you still say that the UK couldn't leave because of the GFA? That would be repressing a significant number of a nation's people. If in the future Ireland vote to leave and we're still in, how would that pan out? It might sound implausible but you never know what might happen if there's another global crash and Trump seems to be helping things on their way there. Experts have already said the Euro is extremely vulnerable to global issues.

Brexit might be ignoring parts of the GFA, but hiding behind the GFA is ignoring other significant issues as well.

I don't think anyone is saying you can't leave because of the GFA. I think the point is that you should have considered the implications around it first.
The same would go for Ireland wanting to leave. It seems very obvious over here that the first thing we would have to iron out is the future relationship with the North, before we could even consider it.
We have a written constitution that would need rewording and we are used to referenda, but I couldn't foresee any government going near a referndum on the EU before having one in connection with The North's relationship with us and the UK.

I agree fully with Alex's statement and share his bewilderment about some of the opinions surrounding NI and Ireland's stance on it.
We had a prior arrangement with you but were dragged into this by you without consultation.(Not you personally, obviously)

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

That is true, but it still makes it an uncomfortable agreement because it is essentially binding two countries together beyond the issue it was designed to resolve. Any agreement between nations should have mutual respect that one or the other may want to revisit all or part of it in the future. Whether this is possible, I don't know. Obviously it will be very tricky and sensitive.

The crux of the GFA is that the Westminster Government basically said they would let the people of NI self determine their future.
We in Ireland amended our constitution to pretty much say the same and flawed and all as the current situation up north, without an active assembly, is...
It is working and it is is the very carefully constructed ambiguity of the wording of the agreement, that is the marvel, and is such a credit to the it's architects.
Everyone's aspirations are covered.
The clumsiness of your present governments lack of consideration for it is in stark contrast.
How could anyone on these islands have any confidence in Boris Johnson or his likes to tear up what you have in place and come up with something better.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I am guessing, but is he not alluding to Scotland facing a similar border and customs issue to Ireland should an independent Scotland seek to rejoin the EU?

I don't possess super-analytical powers, but that is the assumption I came to.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Well they would do yes but he said Scotland was more likely to leave the UK if we had remained.

Don't think he did, but I'm confused now.

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

I don't think anyone is saying you can't leave because of the GFA. I think the point is that you should have considered the implications around it first.
The same would go for Ireland wanting to leave. It seems very obvious over here that the first thing we would have to iron out is the future relationship with the North, before we could even consider it.
We have a written constitution that would need rewording and we are used to referenda, but I couldn't foresee any government going near a referndum on the EU before having one in connection with The North's relationship with us and the UK.

I agree fully with Alex's statement and share his bewilderment about some of the opinions surrounding NI and Ireland's stance on it.
We had a prior arrangement with you but were dragged into this by you without consultation.(Not you personally, obviously)

The benefit that the people in Ireland and N Ireland have is that the GFA has been at the heart of everything political since its creation, so it is understandable that lots of people in the rest of the UK are ignorant of how the two countries interact, because it isn't something that concerns them. Even today, despite the Brexit process, there'll be many that don't know anything about it and more that don't understand the different way of life over there. I found myself in Craigavon on work last year and was surprised by one or two things.

I was responding to phrases such as "Brexit contravenes the GFA" and "Brexit is ignoring (trying to ignore) the terms of the GFA" so may have misunderstood the original point. I read that to mean Brexit could only happen if it contravened the GFA.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

The benefit that the people in Ireland and N Ireland have is that the GFA has been at the heart of everything political since its creation, so it is understandable that lots of people in the rest of the UK are ignorant of how the two countries interact, because it isn't something that concerns them. Even today, despite the Brexit process, there'll be many that don't know anything about it and more that don't understand the different way of life over there. I found myself in Craigavon on work last year and was surprised by one or two things.

I was responding to phrases such as "Brexit contravenes the GFA" and "Brexit is ignoring (trying to ignore) the terms of the GFA" so may have misunderstood the original point. I read that to mean Brexit could only happen if it contravened the GFA.

Nah. You can leave when you like, just leave the GFA as you found it. Or negotiate for or design something better in it's place.....

Not so easy. Considering your own parliament can't decide anything and the NI Assembly is inactive. Our lot are in a minority government.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

.

It's better than that. The Tory leave voters will split between the Tories and the Brexit party. The Tory remain voters will decamp to the LibDems. The minority of Labour voters who voted Leave will vote BP or will still vote Labour. And the majority of Labour voters (who voted Remain) will still vote Labour.

Pretty much how i see it in many seats.

Denton & Reddish near me is a classic example:-
at the last election Labour got 63% of the vote. Tories 28% and UKIP 5%.
In the Referendum it was 61% leave.

That is as hardcore a labour and leave seat as you get. But when it comes to a GE these people just wont shift in numbers to tory if anything the 33% that voted tory / UKIP will split across Tory / BXP / UKIP again and maybe take 10 or 15% of Labour but that is still Labour with circa 50% of the vote and the Brexit parties sharing out sub 50% between 2 (UKIP anilation) and pretty evenly so around 25% each - maybe 30% or 35% to one or the other on a good day. Lib Dem are nowhere with 2% in 2017, even a surge to 10% all moving from Labour and I still think Labour take it with high 30's percentage.

So no I dont see Labour losing many seats in the north.