Another new Brexit thread

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Neville Kneville said:
That is exactly what I think will happen.

In order for people like that to remain in power, they have to keep their core voters angry with somebody & indeed scared. I recon getting the IRA back in full swing would fit in nicely along with perhaps a pointless aggression toward a Muslim country. Then they can 'do deals' to buy weapons from Donald Trump.

That's the kind of shit wecwill see, if these people manage to get full control of Parliament & it will just degenerate, from there.

Stopping them is far more important than Brexit imo & that's coming from someone who, like yourself, used to have no strong political leaning to either side. This is different gravy.
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Stopping them is wholly dependent on enough people in England recognising what they are.
 
BobKowalski said:
I would say his primary goal is to win the election and the rhetoric will get dialled up not down as headlines like ‘Deliver Brexit or face riots’ will testify too but Johnson also needs a transition period because winning an election with everything else turning to ash isn’t ideal either. The EU can see a window. A NI backstop rather than a U.K. is their preference. Maybe a backstop that isn’t time limited but has a ‘deadline’ to deliver special arrangements? Won’t get ERG support but might give MPs in the centre something to coalesce round.

Except Johnson has trashed his chances of bringing MPs together but what if it isn’t Johnson but someone else? What if Labour’s price for a deal is not only the worker safeguards they want but Johnson’s head? SNP are now supporting the idea of a temporary Govt with Corbyn. To say things in Parliament are in a state of flux is an understatement so I can see a situation where the EU does a bit of fancy footwork on the drafting and MPs gratefully embrace pretty much anything to get us and them off the hook.

Wouldn’t put any money on it mind you :)
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It would need all the opposition to get behind a bill which Corbyn could take credit for, as almost all the Tories will vote against it.
 
mcfc1632 said:
...My prediction would be that in the - highly unlikely - even that such a majority is returned within a couple of days we would see the EU agree to arrangements that we were discussing a couple of days ago, i.e. the backstop fettered in such a way that all parties can save face (but it will be fettered) with the genuine backstop being the Irish sea option.
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Saving face? That was the EU’s original idea. It’s their backstop. They will give us that with pretty ribbons on top. This was the original basis we agreed with the EU back in December 2017 before the DUP nixed it.

Seriously I do worry sometimes.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
Stopping them is wholly dependent on enough people in England recognising what they are.
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And caring. Some Tories will just vote for it anyway, it's what they do. Like Hitler's shopkeepers. And the weak leftist opposition is playing into their hands.

But I'm hopeful that there are enough people who will keep them at bay, in spite of Corbyn, to at least mean that Parliament has more opposition than Tories. But then if the SNP fuck off...
 
Neville Kneville said:
It would need all the opposition to get behind a bill which Corbyn could take credit for, as almost all the Tories will vote against it.
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And rebel Tories? Maybe they don’t vote for it but abstain? Country before ex-party? 8 of them voted against a short recess for the Tory Party conference so loyalty not uppermost in their thoughts. Mind you they were no longer invited so they probably thought ‘fuck it’.

Not saying this is likely but I wouldn’t rule anything out either.
 
Neville Kneville said:
And caring. Some Tories will just vote for it anyway, it's what they do. Like Hitler's shopkeepers. And the weak leftist opposition is playing into their hands.

But I'm hopeful that there are enough people who will keep them at bay, in spite of Corbyn, to at least mean that Parliament has more opposition than Tories. But then if the SNP fuck off...
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Nice to see the rhetoric has finally been toned down in here after the outrage yesterday...
 
Neville Kneville said:
And caring. Some Tories will just vote for it anyway, it's what they do. Like Hitler's shopkeepers. And the weak leftist opposition is playing into their hands.

But I'm hopeful that there are enough people who will keep them at bay, in spite of Corbyn, to at least mean that Parliament has more opposition than Tories. But then if the SNP fuck off...
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There is only one reason why the SNP would ‘fuck off’........oh wait! I see it clearly, it’s all part of Dom’s master plan!
 
mcfc1632 said:
They would vote it down of course

This has not been about securing a deal or respecting the referendum for Labour for 2 years - just about getting another election (piss funny that when you see them running scared - just how to they keep running after November?)

For LibDems of course there has never been intention of backing any deal and of course there a re a whole bunch of liars in the Conservative ranks that have only ever intended to undermine the referendum
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Go Libs, Go true Cons ....:)
 
mancity2012_eamo said:
There's been a lot written in various threads in this sub forum since last night's events.
I'll try to put my thoughts on several of the points made in here in replying to you @mcfc1632, as I do feel you cover the crux of the issue here.
From a UK (leave) perspective I don't see anything wrong in your approach.
I've highlighted a few lines above.
It is not a bad baseline for a compromise and where you and I differ is mainly in where our mistrust lies.
You don't trust the EU and say they would not negotiate a suitable deal once you are locked into a backstop.
I would under no circumstances, trust your present government or the one under May which depended on the DUP to take the real considerations of a border community into account, despite it being the DUP's constituents.

The reality from my perspective of the position of the EU and the Irish government is that, there is indeed a possibility of compromise on the May deal.
However having originally negotiated a deal that was somewhat closer to your vision of compromise above, The DUP holding sway in Westminster forced the change which includes the present backstop. They have their own reasons for their objections but they do seem to be mainly out of kilter with their constituents. The business and farming communities that they should be representing.
The crux of the present situation from the EU is that the No Deal threat that you feel is the key to getting them to negotiate is in fact the sticking point at the moment in getting any meaningful work done on a solution.
We say show us something concrete that will work and will get through your parliament and we will listen. Take the No Deal threat away and get serious.
Currently it's seems to be the only thing your government is serious about because it doesn't involve them having to find a solution.
There are far more sinister things afoot in UK politics.
The reality is that everyone can see where your government have gone with this over the last three years and it is evident that there is no desire from cabinet to find a real solution.

So without this real sign of intent, why would any Irish government or any Northern Irish citizen agree to take a punt on the Tories coming up with the goods some time in the future. History is not on there side in that one, I'm afraid.

Getting back to your solution, as I said it's a very good baseline. It's something that could work and I would have every confidence that the EU and Ireland would be open to negotiations, but not under present circumstances.

From previous exchanges in here I know you feel the same, in that the handling of this all along by your own government has been a huge part of the problem in negotiations
It hasn't got any better. There is no trust in this country, nor the EU I would guess. There is no trust currently in their own party, in your parliament and in the majority of the UK citizenship, and your head of state I would wager that the current cabinet are to be trusted.

Whether or not you should have had a referendum has also been discussed to death in here. I've often made the point from our perspective in Ireland that you put the cart before the horse.
Having a better understanding, of how your Parliamentary Democracy actually works, mainly garnered by being an avid student of this sub-forum (Thanks to all the well informed tutorials that have been posted), I am slightly of the opinion that a binary referendum on such a matter that is not clearly cut down left-right political lines, was always doomed to failure.
Historically in Britain GEs are split along an electorate that is either left or right with variances of middle ground, but basically you are left with a Labour-Tory choice.
Apart from what the motives to call the referendum in the first place were, you did not get a result that was clearly split along these traditional lines.

This left you with a problem in parliament where there was no clear focused view of the result in either the left or the right.
Both the Tories and labour are torn apart on it. You cannot get consensus in each party let alone parliament.
It means that your parliamentary democracy will most likely remain in turmoil until you have another GE that has a clear mandate for a clear definition of what the choice of options are. Another referendum is fraught with the same dangers. It has to be on specific outcomes.
Revoke? as sensible as it seems to some, I think it would cause your society more problems. You have to leave with a deal in my opinion.
Leave it to parliament? well parliament is sovereign after all. But an election manifesto would have to have specifics in it indicating how Brexit would be handled.

I've expressed my views above on the lack of trust with the Tory government but I don't want my view just to sound like Tory Bashing.
It really doesn't help mend the rift in the UK and influence anyone who may have voted to leave when the leader of the opposition sends out ambiguous messages such as he would negotiate a deal, put it to the people in a referendum and vote against it.

That was very long. It's not a rant. Just trying to put various ideas together in reply to many who have posted interesting food for thought.
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@mancity2012_eamo

I made a mental note to come back to this post as I thought that it was a particularly balanced and reasonable post - one of the few from those 'on the other side of the debate' that shows any attempt to show respect and consideration for the views of Leavers.

So a couple of responses against points you raise and perhaps we can pick it up further. - having not been on the thread for a couple of days there seems to have been some 'explosion' of extremism and vitriol so actually discussing Brexit would be nice.

1. You highlighted from my post:

"I have also said several times that an 'elegant' solution is to remove the backstop and replace it with an agreement to conclude border arrangements during the transition period - and, in the event that arrangements could not be agreed during the transition period, then the Irish Sea option is adopted.

For this to happen though the EU must reverse its position that it will not reopen the WA - and it is not going to want to do that. Therefore the pressure brought about by the risk of a no-deal outcome is important to persuading them to."

and you say: "It is not a bad baseline for a compromise and where you and I differ is mainly in where our mistrust lies."

Well - it is what it is. I can accept that you have a load of reservations about 'trusting' the UK Government in a future negotiation where there is a need for things to be agreed and I know that you can point to historical reasons for that lack of trust. That said, frankly there is - IMO - not a single fucking chance (swearing for emphasis only) that the EU would not take full advantage of the UK if they were able to lock it into the backstop and keep it there neutered, until they had completed a range of policy implementation that would render us impotent and totally remove what they see as the threat of an independent and strong economy just off their shores and outside their regulation.

Simply put - the UK must not enter into any agreement that contains an unfettered backstop - and any UK citizen that has the UK's interest as a priority should support that view.

So we have to agree with each other's positions and see where it falls.

But that said - my view of the 'elegant solution' actually does work if the EU are indeed being genuine as. That is because the Irish Sea option addresses all its 'genuine concerns' - just not its ambitions of hegemony.

You refer to trust and current circumstances etc. - understandable - but frankly if the UK is to Leave - then someone/something needs to happen at Westminster to cut through the control that the sycophants are exercising. The answer is of course a GE - we will then see the truth of the UK population's view of the offerings of the political parties - including on Brexit.

Curious how 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' is all of a sudden running for cover and the Labour Party are organising to ensure that his replacement is 'cut from the same cloth' and not a centrist - perhaps they have been reading the runes? I am wholly against the idea of a 2nd referendum - people might say it is because I think that Leave would lose - they might well do as everyone is fed up with this farce and want it over. The (equally) main reason for me though is that it just plays into/rewards the EU strategy on these things - delay delay, make everyone concerned and pissed off and make some promises etc etc. and then get them to make the right decision.

Anyway, thanks for showing some respect to people having others views - breath of fresh air mate.
 
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Saddleworth2 said:
There is only one reason why the SNP would ‘fuck off’........oh wait! I see it clearly, it’s all part of Dom’s master plan!
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Nail on head.
Johnson and Cummings not only don't give a shit about the union, they actively want Scotland to break away so there's 53 less opposition MPs which would help them secure a majority government.
 
west didsblue said:
Nail on head.
Johnson and Cummings not only don't give a shit about the union, they actively want Scotland to break away so there's 53 less opposition MPs which would help them secure a majority government.
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Leaked memo mate? Or another bit of random nonsense? Me thinks the latter.
 
Neville Kneville said:
It could work perfectly for them.

If they are in a future 'hung' Parliament, which has to form some kind of coalition government, of course their votes will come at a price.
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I was thinking more about the fracture of the UK. The Johnson factor is not exactly playing well in Scotland and under certain circumstances might tip the balance in any Indyref 2.
Would Johnson/Cummings fight tooth and nail to protect the sanctity of the Union given that after the next election there will be zero conservative MP's in Scotland? That would help his majority wouldn't it?
 
Chippy_boy said:
Leaked memo mate? Or another bit of random nonsense? Me thinks the latter.
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Just an opinion based on their behaviour.

I think the chances are that Scotland is highly likely to secede anyway whatever happens. Nailed on with no deal but highly likely with any form of Brexit or even remain. The general mistrust of Westminster that is there at the best of times has only got worse and dragging them out of the EU when 62% voted to remain in it isn't going to make matters better. Johnson/Cummings know this and in their world the fact that Johnson would then have 53 less opposition seats to worry about makes it very attractive for them to shit on the Scots.
 
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