COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

I have totally changed my opinion of Covid19 in the last 24 hours or so.

I was wondering why the UK was so laid back about this when a couple of nations have gone to war on it and seemingly won. I think the UK approach is that this is not going to be a blitzkrieg. It's going to be here for months and months and you have to sustain a response from the population. I believe the UK objective is about keeping it at low levels and building up immunity. They want to keep the old and vulnerable safe but they want the rest of us to get ill at a controlled rate not because they don't care but because that is the only protection. Enough of us have to get ill to stop this spreading.

The point that confuses me now is what happens to countries like China where they drive down the virus to very very low levels, and then return to BAU. Will it return? I think the jury is out on that. If China can keep their virus levels low, then that will be crucial. There is a possibility it will just bounce back. Ironically I think just about the safest place in the world right now is Wuhan because they have many recovered people.

Another thing I have learned is that all these vaccines can not just be rolled out to frontline staff. When you vaccinate people you can make it worse because these people can die through a massive immune response so it has to be developed properly and that's the time consuming part. I thought they could bypass that and just do it.

The identified rate of infection in Wuhan (as of 3rd March) was 1 in 223 of the population (49,540 cases vs 11,081,000 population). If the actual number is 20 times that (the rate mentioned in the UK briefing yesterday and which would equate to a mortality rate of 0.23%), the rate is 1 in 11 but that still means 10,000,000 in the city are at risk of another outbreak. It would mean 8 outbreaks of a similar size and reaction to get to the much stated 70-80% rate of population infection.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

The CMO is a civil servant, surely, not a hire?

Not sure about the status of the CSA.

 

[M18CTID]

Not necessarily.
They’re bottom of the league table for testing. Even behind the US.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

Well I wasn't being entirely serious - surely more have it

 

[Mikeegrini]

If, and I say if, the situation there gets as serious as it is here (and at the moment it's nowhere near) there are gonna be many people, mostly elderly, dying suffocating alone in a hospital corridor while medics try at least to lessen their pain. No family allowed to visit them (obviously not allowed in the hospital and probably quarantined themselves) and no funeral function allowed afterwards.

Common sense tells you this is the most likely scenario. He mentioned on this morning taking it on the chin and the fact they aren’t closing schools and banning sporting events suggests they want the majority of the public to catch it now and be over it in a matter of weeks and back to work so the economy is less impacted than it being dragged out over 3/4 months. Unfortunately our elderly sick and weak will be collateral damage as he explained by saying he families will lose people before their time , that was pretty much a disclaimer .


It’s pretty fucking draconian

Welcome to our new reality...

 

[Claytop]

Sadly in my 12 week ultrasound my baby showed signs of very severe problems including cystic hygroma, gut herniation and fluid in the chest cavity and abdomen. I had a CVS test done and sadly initial result came back positive for Edwards syndrome. I’m extremely sad and upset that it’s over. I have to have the surgical option because my heart can’t take the thought of passing naturally and being in labour for hours. I have a high risk of infection after too

it’s shitty but I guess that’s life

So sorry to hear that.

 

[TCIB]

Sadly in my 12 week ultrasound my baby showed signs of very severe problems including cystic hygroma, gut herniation and fluid in the chest cavity and abdomen. I had a CVS test done and sadly initial result came back positive for Edwards syndrome. I’m extremely sad and upset that it’s over. I have to have the surgical option because my heart can’t take the thought of passing naturally and being in labour for hours. I have a high risk of infection after too

it’s shitty but I guess that’s life

I am so very sorry to hear that Bob that's heartbreaking. I can understand your choice to have surgery totally. I can only hope all goes smoothly and you are healthy after with no infections setting. You have built up your family unit and now is a time for you to be thankful for that. They will all be there for you which i hope helps you focus on the future as soon as possible. Of course you won't be doing that right away but they will all be there for the lady of the house every step hun.

 

[Uffa]

I’m having surgery later today under general anesthetic. It will leave me vulnerable as I already have a low immune system

Don't worry, I'm sure doctors are very aware of the risks and probably are the most careful out of the whole population in this situation. Have a nice recovery.

 

[bobmcfc]

So sorry to hear that.

so am I. You never think it will happen to you and Edwards is apparently a 1/5000 chance. I’m one unlucky person if that’s the case

 

[Chippy_boy]

I agree but the maths means that when you get to 500, the doubling every 4 days means it can't slow burn forever. I suspect that the government wants a controlled peak i.e. when it starts to accelerate they want to control that growth and shift it to the right and down. They've been saying that forever but I thought well look at China. Why don't you just do that? I think they genuinely believe that that wont work. It will just rebound once social contact resumes.

There seems to be two ways of attacking this. Lockdown, or controlled, phased lockdown.

I am very very impressed that China managed to restrict it to one City. That does to me suggest that there is considerable hope that if a society forces a total lockdown and stops social contact, virus levels can drop so low that it wont come back. China is the experiment that the world will watch now.

What about South Korea, Hong Kong etc?

We're seeing daily growth rates in the 15% to 20% range which if continuing unchecked will lead to total calamity in a matter of a few weeks. South Korea have 10x the cases we have and yet daily increases lower than ours. Their trajectory is entirely manageable, ours is impending disaster.

 

[bobmcfc]

I am so very sorry to hear that Bob that's heartbreaking. I can understand your choice to have surgery totally. I can only hope all goes smoothly and you are healthy after with no infections setting. You have built up your family unit and now is a time for you to be thankful for that. They will all be there for you which i hope helps you focus on the future as soon as possible. Of course you won't be doing that right away but they will all be there for the lady of the house every step hun.

when the time is right we will try again . I will say that with this corona we can listen to experts and government but ultimately we all have to be sensible and not take risks with each other. Nobody will look out for you quite like you will yourself

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Advisor has been on Sky News this morning. He basically said that to achieve herd immunity, which is our ultimate goal, we need at least 60% of the population to contract it. It sounds cold to say that we are in a way aiming for this figure, but I feel we absolutely are. It’s designed to protect us in the future as he said this disease will never go away and will come back each year as a seasonal disease. So we need herd immunity. We also know that his estimate of worst case scenario is 80% getting it. So we can narrow it down quite confidently to 60-80% contraction and between 400k and 550k deaths. If we say half a million deaths that will not be too far wide of the mark when all is said and done. Whether the official data will reflect that I don’t know, it depends on testing.

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

I understand the herd immunity, though it's obvious it is very minority view at this moment, but for the life of me I don't understand how that professor and anyone else came to thought that not doing anything and continuing as normal could contain the spread of the virus. Not doing anything helps the spread. If that's what they want in regards with herd immunity, than ok (I don't think it's ok, but it's their strategy and ok), but how can they say it will help to contain it and how you or anyone else could accept that?

It's like saying shagging without condom will help contain the HIV and pregnancy.

You state you understand herd immunity then say, and unfortunately prove, you don't. It slows the transmission of the disease from one person to another because the person who has it comes into contact with fewer susceptible hosts and the virus stops transmission with that infected person (apart from physical intermediate transmission e.g. an infected person sneezes onto an immune person and someone else - a susceptible host - touches the germs on that intermediate and then contracts the virus). People saying we are risking our vulnerable people are misunderstanding what needs to be done, these people have to be kept safe now, whichever tactic you use - herd immunity OR total lockdown.

 

[Ban-jani]

I disagree about the buy-in. I think people accept that it is ludicrous to carry on with a football competition when the competitors are effected.

This is not a Brexit issue. All the experts in Brexit pointed in one direction, there are global examples and experience here that we could potentially be doing more.

‘Johnson has hired them’* was your key phrase, they won’t want to upset policy of keeping the peasants working as long as possible and keep the tax coming in - I don’t think that’s actually a bad idea, I just think mass gatherings, but particularly the before, during(h/t, interval etc.) are a step too far

He is either going to be very right or very wrong

*I didn’t know they were hired, I thought they just did what they did. I didn’t realise governments brought them in to consultant

It’s absolutely fucking ludicrous to think these experts aren’t worth their salt and it’s absolutely fucking ludicrous to think that Johnson isn’t acting in the best interests of the country.

With this in mind, why don’t the internet experts try listening?

 

[Ban-jani]

yup, forget waiting for the numbers of reported infections to come in as they will become more and more meaningless, the government has indirectly told people that unless your a celebrity or politician to stay at home and ride this one out and cross your fingers.

No they haven’t.

 

[Uffa]

when the time is right we will try again .

I'm sorry it happened to you but it's a normal thing that can happen. My mum lost her first baby before the third month of pregnancy too, and then went on to have me and my two siblings. So recover well and don't get demoralized.

 

[Marvin]

The identified rate of infection in Wuhan (as of 3rd March) was 1 in 223 of the population (49,540 cases vs 11,081,000 population). If the actual number is 20 times that (the rate mentioned in the UK briefing yesterday and which would equate to a mortality rate of 0.23%), the rate is 1 in 11 but that still means 10,000,000 in the city are at risk of another outbreak. It would mean 8 outbreaks of a similar size and reaction to get to the much stated 70-80% rate of population infection.

The signs from China are very good. There's no indication yet that it is bouncing back.

I change my mind every 5 minutes. I am just shutting up now. The stats suggests overwhelmingly that China is the way to go. The science basically zero immunity suggests phased build-up of immunity is the way to go. Bottom-line is that if China keeps its cities virus free for some time after a major infection then we should all copy them.

At first they said that nly China could do that because it was a repressive society but when yu are faced with a worst case scenario you do what you have to do. Every Western society will take on whatever it takes now. I am scared. I have stuff to do but I can't do it because I keep thinking about this and looking at all the data that comes through from every country.

 

[Chippy_boy]

It’s absolutely fucking ludicrous to think these experts aren’t worth their salt and it’s absolutely fucking ludicrous to think that Johnson isn’t acting in the best interests of the country.

With this in mind, why don’t the internet experts try listening?

It would be a lot easier to simply accept it if the actions they are taking were not so strikingly at odds with those of all other major countries.

Are we blindly to accept that our lot are correct and everyone else's experts are necessarily wrong because they are not British?

 

[SWP's back]

Neither of them have said anything specific to the UK. Surely strategy should depend on a number of factors that are specific to a particular country, rather than having a worldwide blanket policy?

Why?

And they did speak in general at how alarmed they were that governments aren’t doing enough. But you’ll ignore that as you currently seem to have some sort of man crush for Boris.

 

[Ban-jani]

You were doing so well until the last paragraph and the use of the B word!

It’s an important point as it proves some people only believe the experts when it suits.

 

[M18CTID]

You won’t get the whole public buying in.

Johnson has hired the top scientists in the country to not only advise him but instruct the public as to why they’re taking these measures and certain agenda driven people have ignored the experts and attacked him.

The same people bemoaning Brexiteers for not believing the experts.

I think it's damned if you do, damned if you don't. I've been critical of the government over this but a lot of what was being said yesterday appeared to make sense in a way. Only time will tell if this supposed "inaction" backfires or not. Either way, the whole situation is still extremely worrying