The FTSE

Short term relief rally is on the horizon with a very obvious flag: new cases in Italy but the market will need a convincing trend to emerge, not a one off blip.

I am looking at this every day now. I missed the obvious short but I want to get the bounce back. However, I think a recovery will be short-lived because the economic costs to some sectors will be significant. This even will probably create changes to activity too but it's too soon to focus on that yet.
 
Marvin said:
Short term relief rally is on the horizon with a very obvious flag: new cases in Italy but the market will need a convincing trend to emerge, not a one off blip.

I am looking at this every day now. I missed the obvious short but I want to get the bounce back. However, I think a recovery will be short-lived because the economic costs to some sectors will be significant. This even will probably create changes to activity too but it's too soon to focus on that yet.
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The financial impact of what is happening right now will take 6 - 9 months to wash through into earnings reports. The markets will move with the numbers going forward so dont expect big jumps short term. If you want to be savy look at how behavious have changed and who benefits and pick your time to buy in. Algorithms can't pick up changing behaviour.
 
Just taken a punt on a couple of travel companies. Both 80% down in a month so I'll either lose the lot if they go bust or make a few quid on the bounce back. No idea which way it will go but they both have long term profitable track records so worth a gamble imo. I've also bought into an oil company which is down 50% in a month. I'm reasonably confident they won't go bust but it might take some time to get back.
 
Marvin said:
Short term relief rally is on the horizon with a very obvious flag: new cases in Italy but the market will need a convincing trend to emerge, not a one off blip.

I am looking at this every day now. I missed the obvious short but I want to get the bounce back. However, I think a recovery will be short-lived because the economic costs to some sectors will be significant. This even will probably create changes to activity too but it's too soon to focus on that yet.
Click to expand...

are you a day trader? What are you basing your price targets on charts or specific events? All the tools such as charts in my opinion go out of the window here as there simply isn’t any charts to pull up on this scenario. For me it’s trigger points in the news cycle which is a first as we are trying to predict financial movements based on medical developments rather than the release of farmpay rolls, GDP, CPI etc

still think the big one is coming which will be the U.S as it always is. The clues for me are there by just watching trump in the briefings, his demeanor and words have radically changed in the past week so what data as he got in his desk that we don’t know about?
 
west didsblue said:
Just taken a punt on a couple of travel companies. Both 80% down in a month so I'll either lose the lot if they go bust or make a few quid on the bounce back. No idea which way it will go but they both have long term profitable track records so worth a gamble imo. I've also bought into an oil company which is down 50% in a month. I'm reasonably confident they won't go bust but it might take some time to get back.
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Seems a decent call as the travel companies will have to restart at some point - time frame is a nightmare on this though as it’s all interlinked with scientific data and predicted government responses and finally consumer appetite/financial capacity to actually go on holiday in the foreseeable future.

personally looking at the telecommunications sector maybe Vodafone which is done to 110 from 160 highs - I’ve noticed my phone has crashed a couple of times already recently and suspect if the Uk goes into lock down usage will go through the roof.
 
west didsblue said:
Just taken a punt on a couple of travel companies. Both 80% down in a month so I'll either lose the lot if they go bust or make a few quid on the bounce back. No idea which way it will go but they both have long term profitable track records so worth a gamble imo. I've also bought into an oil company which is down 50% in a month. I'm reasonably confident they won't go bust but it might take some time to get back.
Click to expand...

I’d be more confident in the oil one than the Travel.
 
Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
Had a good day today (up 13%) but be wary on travel. Precarious industry in these times.
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Agreed. I reckon it’s 50:50 whether they survive. That’s why I went for two of the biggest ones TUI and Carnival. Both up over 10% today but not counting chickens. I know it’s effectively a win/lose bet.
 
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