COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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domalino said:
My reply was to the post you made. Specifically the part where you think the objective is to stop as many people as possible from getting it until a vaccine arrives.

That's not the objective. It can't be.
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It IS the objective.

It became the objective when the herd immunity stupid idea was rightly abandoned.
 
Chippy_boy said:
It IS the objective.
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No it isn't, the lockdown-relax-lockdown strategy is about spreading the number of infections, not greatly reducing the overall number.

If you want to reduce the overall number you lockdown the entire country, track everybodies phones, put armed police on every street and imprison people who test positive or come into contact with a positive case for 3 weeks.
 
fulabeer said:
It's never making the vaccine that causes the delay. It's the testing to make sure it is safe that takes the time.
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Whatever they have done - and it is being bankrolled by the government - has somehow condensed a year into three weeks - with the monkey testing starting mid-April.

I will be tuning in tomorrow to get a better grasp of what these talented people are doing.
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
Horizon tomorrow night on BBC2 9PM will show how a year's work at a lab in London/Oxford has somehow managed to develop something in three weeks which would normally take a year to reach that stage.

The virus was eradicated overnight in mice and the next testing is on Monkeys during the next two weeks.

I would never sell our clever fuckers out there short.
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Nor would I, but clinical trials of drugs and vaccines have to be thorough and cover as many angles as possible to avoid a catastrophe like thalidomide.
 
domalino said:
No it isn't, the lockdown-relax-lockdown strategy is about spreading the number of infections, not reducing the overall number much.
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Nope. Do the maths. How long would you like to spread 40m or 50m infections out over and not cause catastrophic failure of our health service? It is not a solution and never can be.
 
Chippy_boy said:
That is not what I have suggested at all. I have said this previously several times:

We lock down as we are doing - ideally we would have done it sooner and harder, since then the peak would have been lower and the duration shorter. But we are where we are.

And then once the infection rate is right down and the death rate near or at zero, then we gradually ease off restrictions and start to get back to normal. However, we start mass scale testing and immediately isolate anyone infected, trace their contacts and isolate them as well. And if the numbers start to pick up, we start imposing restrictions again.

This is the only viable strategy. It is all well and good you talking about "fantasy" but you offer no alternative. 40m get this; tens, perhaps hundreds of thousands die, and the NHS is obliterated. That is your alternative.

Moreover, what I am suggesting is the course shown to be effective in other countries. And for that matter, it's the course we are taking. Singapore are just starting to put restrictions in place again, now that their death toll has reach a dizzy 6 (total, not per day). vs our circa 5,000. They kept it at 6 with vigorous mass testing, isolation and contract tracing. And everyone wears a mask! When our lock down ends, this is PRECISELY what we must do.
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Singapore have a geographical size about half that of Greater Manchester and a population of about 5.5 million. It’s a different country.
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
Maybe some of our fellow Blues across the region can confirm?

My niece is a PE teacher in Dubai - at least she has a balcony.

She says they have drones up each night spraying disinfectant across everywhere - must be an amazing sight.
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The only drones I've personally seen have been publicity shots in the papers like this one:
200328-drone-streets_171219a7e25_medium.jpg

It's mainly been teams with trucks manually spraying the streets as I imagine the drones aren't very practical in reality. But yes, they're doing this every night and have been for over a week now.

As of yesterday we're on full 24/7 lockdown for the next two weeks. Have to apply online for permission to leave home for any reason and we have to wear masks (good idea) and gloves (shit idea) every time we go outside.
 
All this talk about repeated lockdowns doesn't seem feasible to me. The economy is slumping already and it's only been a matter of weeks. If it carries on for much longer then we are looking at an economic collapse on a scale never seen before.

Can we afford to wreck the economy for a generation in order to reduce the death toll?
 
Ardwick Green Blue said:
All this talk about repeated lockdowns doesn't seem feasible to me. The economy is slumping already and it's only been a matter of weeks. If it carries on for much longer then we are looking at an economic collapse on a scale never seen before.

Can we afford to wreck the economy for a generation in order to reduce the death toll?
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The economy will recover. Dead relatives will not.
 
Chippy_boy said:
The economy will recover. Dead relatives will not.
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As ever, a reminder to everyone that the economy tanking kills people.

It is not a childish choice between people dying and an economic boom.

It's a choice between thousands dying of flu and an economic depression that will kill thousands. Hence why it's a balancing act every country is trying to get right and why there is no easy answer.
 
Manc in London said:
It was from SKY News on Saturday.

The figs for cases in the various London boroughs vary wildly. For example, Haringey and Barnet are adjacent to each other but Barnet figs are much higher. Of course, there may be other reasons for the differences. But there are 4 or 5 London boroughs that have had many more positive than others (not a great proxy for ICU cases, granted) . Maybe some trusts are close to breaking point, others are way off.
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I would have expected it to be the other way round tbh.
 
Chippy_boy said:
It IS the objective.

It became the objective when the herd immunity stupid idea was rightly abandoned.
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I don't agree with that at all.
The objective is a bit of both. Slow and limit the infection rate "until" a vaccine is available.
You seem to think the economy isn't important, but i'm afraid it is.
The longer a shutdown occurs, the harder it is to reverse.
This doesn't mean death aren't important, but a balance needs to be achieved.
We can only go so long before real economic impacts starts to actually cause deaths.
You've seen people fighting over toilet rolls, imagine what will happen when the food runs out...
 
Ardwick Green Blue said:
All this talk about repeated lockdowns doesn't seem feasible to me. The economy is slumping already and it's only been a matter of weeks. If it carries on for much longer then we are looking at an economic collapse on a scale never seen before.

Can we afford to wreck the economy for a generation in order to reduce the death toll?
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100s of thousands dead doesn’t do much for consumer or banking confidence, either.....
 
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