COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[bobmcfc]

866 more deaths

 

[twosips]

48 in Scotland, and 10 in Northern Ireland. Numbers not released in Wales yet.

 

[blueparrot]

belgium had 496 deaths in last 24 hours. That's by far the worst day per million in any country so far. It's like Italy had 3000 deaths day.

“Belgium sees highest daily death toll so far


Belgium has reported 496 new deaths in the past 24 hours, its deadliest day so far, bringing the number of fatalities to 3,019.

The number appears very high for a country of 11.4 million, however around half the number of fatalities have been recorded outside Belgium's hospitals, largely in care homes, and many of the latest deaths happened last month.

Geert Meyfroidt, president of the Belgian Society of Intensive Care Medicine, has told the BBC that the number is so high because Belgium counts all suspected cases of Covid-19 as well as confirmed cases. "In most other countries, they only count those who have tested positive."

He also said the number of deaths in care homes was barely higher than normal.

The situation in Belgium's hospitals and intensive care units appears to have stabilised, according to local health authorities”

Highlights the issue taking a days reported deaths as a particular days deaths and also the issue comparing one counties reports to anothers. Different countries different methods.

 

[M18CTID]

IMO very few , most I know can’t wait to get back to our old lives. For me football, gigs, restaurants and holidays. Not sure why anyone would sacrifice something they love to make some sort of point as we’ve seen lifes too short and fragile.

No doubt everyone wants to see a return to “normality” but I reckon plenty of people will be wary of attending events with big crowds of people, and as such I can see some sacking off football and gigs for a while at least. Holidays are a bit different as you can go somewhere that’s reasonably quiet.

 

[Rammy Blue]

I’ve just been out to take the dog in my local small park, have to say it was as empty as I’ve ever seen it on such a gorgeous day. Didn’t even come across any teenagers abusing the lockdown. No picnics taking place etc. Just a small number of people either jogging, walking or exercising their dogs.

 

[twosips]

Not an attempt at being 'bleak' before the grief moderators have a go at me... :)

Just a sincere question. Does anyone actually think we'll not exceed 20-25k deaths? If so, why? I see a lot of people here defending the government's approach and saying that we'll have done well if we do that, and I agree given everything that would be good, but do people think this is actually likely? Is it not just hot air?

I'm only asking that question given Vallance basically undermined that aim, saying yesterday we've got two more weeks of rising figures, and the fact that we're already over 8k, with just under 1k today added. Well, that's 14 more days rising, and then coming back down. If its at around 1k today, without the rises yet, it feels really hopeful at best given the slacking attitudes of the general public and the current trends?

Honestly want to know thoughts on this. I'm not trying to be depressing. Just an observation.

 

[abu13]

48 in Scotland, and 10 in Northern Ireland. Numbers not released in Wales yet.

29 in Wales i believe.

 

[asahartford1]

4k people are likely to die over the next 5 days and people are arguing about starting the football season up on a thread about a deadly virus...

It would for me, football is for the fans, and while fans are still dying it shouldn't even be up for discussion.

But the powers that be need to discuss and make decisions while people are still dying.
In the same way government , Industry, and society in general need to make decisions about the timetable of returning to normal.

There is a finite time limit in regards returning to normal, or their will be no normal to return to. People will still be dying from covid 19 in 12 months.

If playing behind closed doors is a step to normality, it will happen. City will not be able to make a unilateral decision , the decision will at best be a consensus. If empty stadiums are a way of getting through this season, and therefore starting 20/21 closer to normality, so be it.
There were already, even before coronavirus people stating on bluemoon that it was their last season, the virus will mean even more people changing the habits of a lifetime. A big challenge for football clubs going forward, they will need to listen to the fans that remain, or face an uncertain future.

 

[blueparrot]

No doubt everyone wants to see a return to “normality” but I reckon plenty of people will be wary of attending events with big crowds of people, and as such I can see some sacking off football and gigs for a while at least. Holidays are a bit different as you can go somewhere that’s reasonably quiet.

I agree it will take a lot of people a while to be confident about big crowds again, how long who knows. The bit I don’t agree with, for me at least, is those saying they will stop all together if some games are played behind closed doors first. Firstly I don’t see why you’d stop something you enjoy to make some point. Also it’s no surprise that football has entered into very expensive contracts that may have contractual obligations. Third a lot of people might get some enjoyment watching some football while they can’t do much else. We know it isn’t ideal but there are bigger things to worry about.

 

[blueparrot]

The austrian study is self reporting and worthless.
The UK study doesn't say if they tested for antibodies so is only slightly useful.
the one actually useful study is the German one where they tested for infection and antibodies.

What sort of infection rate did the German one produce?

 

[Rammy Blue]

Not an attempt at being 'bleak' before the grief moderators have a go at me... :)

Just a sincere question. Does anyone actually think we'll not exceed 20-25k deaths? If so, why? I see a lot of people here defending the government's approach and saying that we'll have done well if we do that, and I agree given everything that would be good, but do people think this is actually likely? Is it not just hot air?

I'm only asking that question given Vallance basically undermined that aim, saying yesterday we've got two more weeks of rising figures, and the fact that we're already over 8k, with just under 1k today added. Well, that's 14 more days rising, and then coming back down. If its at around 1k today, without the rises yet, it feels really hopeful at best given the slacking attitudes of the general public and the current trends?

Honestly want to know thoughts on this. I'm not trying to be depressing. Just an observation.

I said weeks ago it’d be a miracle if we got less than 20k deaths, agree completely that it’s difficult to think we won’t finish far in excess of that number now with the trajectory we are on.

 

[oakiecokie]

Get yourself down here to Newquay and chill with us all and i8rags

Seriously is that where you live Nellie ?

 

[BlueHammer85]

No doubt everyone wants to see a return to “normality” but I reckon plenty of people will be wary of attending events with big crowds of people, and as such I can see some sacking off football and gigs for a while at least. Holidays are a bit different as you can go somewhere that’s reasonably quiet.

18-30 age will be booking as much as they can and going to every event possible soon as lockdown is over. None of that age category will be weary.

 

[twosips]

18-30 age will be booking as much as they can and going to every event possible soon as lockdown is over. None of that age category will be weary.

Most of them wont have jobs anymore tbh so I doubt it! Ha.

 

[SWP's back]

These two articles caught my eye today on the issue of herd immunity and the subject of probable and actual infections numbers. Austrian numbers and the health care workers showing much lower levels of infection than people had anticipated. Both articles abbreviated but of correct would suggest that the virus has a higher mortality rate than we have predicting and this herd immunity seems like a much more remote option. Granted not the best scientific experiment at this stage but seems a lot closer than numbers being banded around on BM of probable infection rates currently.

Austria Prediction study

The principle of “herd immunity”, at one stage touted by the UK government as a possible solution to the coronavirus outbreak, has taken an apparent blow after a study in Austria found less than 1% of the population is infected with coronavirus.

The first such study in continental Europe, led by pollster SORA which is known for projecting election results, aimed to provide a clearer picture of the total number of infections, given gaps in testing, Reuters reports.

“Based on this study, we believe that 0.33% of the population in Austria was acutely infected in early April,” SORA co-founder Christoph Hofinger told a news conference. Given the margin of error, the figure was 95% likely to be between 0.12% and 0.76%.

Sebastian Kurz, Austria’s chancellor, whose government commissioned the study and saw initial findings a few days ago, said on Monday that the rate of infection was around 1%. He said that disproved the idea of herd immunity - which requires widespread infection - as a viable policy option.

UK healthworkers

Fewer than one in five healthcare workers who suspected they had coronavirus actually tested positive for the disease, according to one of the first published UK studies of mass testing on NHS workers.

Scientists from Sheffield, which started testing all symptomatic healthcare workers a fortnight before much of the rest of the UK, have published research showing that 81% of staff reporting symptoms tested negative.

Some 1,533 staff were tested over the two weeks from 17 March. Of these, just 282 (18%) tested positive. Five (< 1%) had an indeterminate result.

Nah fuck that. Half this forum had it before Christmas. Same with everyone I know on Facebook apparently.

 

[SWP's back]

Who’s Martin?

Martin’s a fucking neck beard.

 

[kaz7]

866 more deaths

This is going to continue for a couple of weeks,it is depressing

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Martin’s a fucking neck beard.

Everyone’s a neck beard according to you.

 

[blueparrot]

This is going to continue for a couple of weeks,it is depressing

Not necessarily, again a lot of todays report from as far back as March. It must get to a point were they have caught up the majority of missed ones with better reporting methods and we’ll get closer to true daily figures again.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I agree it will take a lot of people a while to be confident about big crowds again, how long who knows. The bit I don’t agree with, for me at least, is those saying they will stop all together if some games are played behind closed doors first. Firstly I don’t see why you’d stop something you enjoy to make some point. Also it’s no surprise that football has entered into very expensive contracts that may have contractual obligations. Third a lot of people might get some enjoyment watching some football while they can’t do much else. We know it isn’t ideal but there are bigger things to worry about.

2 World Wars didn’t stop people going to football matches so the aftermath of this virus (when it eventually comes) won’t destroy Club’s fan bases. There will be people who stop going and several posters have pointed out (in the past) that our support is a bit jaded anyway, so City might be hit harder than some other Clubs. Time will tell and there might be more chances for new season card holders / families to get seats together.

I am not missing the football that much and I’ve found not being able to go to the rugby league a bigger loss. I reckon the season will restart behind closed doors around end June / July (because of money)! but it might be safest for the season to be written off completely.