COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Not been following the latest tittle tattle but can I just remind people that we've had 28,000 declared deaths (and it's probably nearer 40,000) even after fairly draconian lock down and social distancing measures.

Anyone contemplating for 1 nanosecond "was it worth it?" might do well to reflect upon how quickly we went from 10 dead to 1,000 dead. A 100x fold increase? That was 2 weeks BTW. From mid March to the end of March, we saw a 100x increase in the numbers of people dead.

Had we not locked down, we could have expected another 100x increase in the 2 weeks that followed that. By mid to end of April we'd probably have had at least 100,000 dead - and probably more because we wouldn't have been able to treat everyone.

Lock down wasn't "worth it", it was the only possible option.
 
Here comes the press questions.
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I honestly just find myself worrying at the thought of "going back to normal" and "reopening the country." It feels like it's gaining momentum based on the general public getting increasingly more pissed off at being stuck inside the house than the science. It really does seem like in a couple of months time we will be back at square one all locked inside the house again after the virus has a resurgence.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Not been following the latest tittle tattle but can I just remind people that we've had 28,000 declared deaths (and it's probably nearer 40,000) even after fairly draconian lock down and social distancing measures.

Anyone contemplating for 1 nanosecond "was it worth it?" might do well to reflect upon how quickly we went from 10 dead to 1,000 dead. A 100x fold increase? That was 2 weeks BTW. From mid March to the end of March, we saw a 100x increase in the numbers of people dead.

Had we not locked down, we could have expected another 100x increase in the 2 weeks that followed that. By mid to end of April we'd probably have had at least 100,000 dead - and probably more because we wouldn't have been able to treat everyone.

Lock down wasn't "worth it", it was the only possible option.
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Think the early estimates were that without any restrictions, 80% of the population would catch the virus and 1% of those would die... approx 1/2 million deaths
 
Chippy_boy said:
Lock down wasn't "worth it", it was the only possible option.
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absolutely not disagreeing with you or trying to start a fight but I've been wondering something for a while and your post gives me an opportunity to ask a question. I'm wondering where the people currently being infected are picking it up from? Is it people infecting other people in their own homes or are people getting it in supermarkets or at work? Does anyone even know?
 
RandomJ said:
I honestly just find myself worrying at the thought of "going back to normal" and "reopening the country." It feels like it's gaining momentum based on the general public getting increasingly more pissed off at being stuck inside the house than the science. It really does seem like in a couple of months time we will be back at square one all locked inside the house again after the virus has a resurgence.
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Absolutely this. If we come out of lock down too early and/or too abruptly, then this is a cast iron certainty IMO. And then that's another 2 to 3 months of purgatory and another 30,000 or 40,000 dead.
 
worsleyweb said:
Let’s hope that it just keeps falling over the next few weeks. It really feels like they are starting to corner this.
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It’s falling because there’s a lock down. When the lock down ends, it will rise. The key is keeping the vulnerable protected, testing like mad and keeping the amount hospitalised under the NHS’s capacity.

But the lock down will have to be relaxed sooner rather than later or no **** will have a job.
 
mrbelfry said:
absolutely not disagreeing with you or trying to start a fight but I've been wondering something for a while and your post gives me an opportunity to ask a question. I'm wondering where the people currently being infected are picking it up from? Is it people infecting other people in their own homes or are people getting it in supermarkets or at work? Does anyone even know?
Click to expand...

People are picking it up whilst out and about, and then bringing it home.
 
Have any of the deaths been proven to be due to lack of ICU care?

It has been maintained from the start, that controlling the numbers to a level that care can be provided has to be the goal.
In that respect, i feel that has been achieved.
They didn't have the data they now do. I'm more interested what they do next.

You can bet your last penny, that those selfish people who have "bent" the lock down rules will be the same vocal people slating the government.

I said from the start that the government would make mistakes. And i feel they have. But i don't blame them for anything.
This is a bad situation, and for any mistakes already made, i feel that they have made some good moves as well.

To put things in perspective in how it is a free for all to slate the Government for everything, some people are now calling the Nightingale hospitals a waste of money...FFS
 
BlueAnorak said:
Would you believe any information coming out of China? I wouldn't. South Korea, Sindapre and Japan are the nations I am most interested in.
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I strongly suspect them of covering up the origins, timelines, infections and mortalities, but I can’t see any logical reason at this stage why they won’t be collaborating with everyone on the science and working towards a global solution - pretty sure they want to see consumer demand return in the west.
 
SWP's back said:
It’s falling because there’s a lock down. When the lock down ends, it will rise. The key is keeping the vulnerable protected, testing like mad and keeping the amount hospitalised under the NHS’s capacity.

But the lock down will have to be relaxed sooner rather than later or no **** will have a job.
Click to expand...
It would if lock down ended, but we will come out of lockdown slower than we went in. If is gradual enough with no gatherings, with everyone queuing outside shops, public places providing hand sanitiser, social distancing, and shielding vunerable , testing and tracing. Then we can prevent it rising again.
 
chaddblue said:
Think the early estimates were that without any restrictions, 80% of the population would catch the virus and 1% of those would die... approx 1/2 million deaths
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I know. The big unknown is what is the actual mortality rate, and we simply don't know because we cannot seem to establish with any degree of certainty how many people in the UK have actually been infected. I think the circa 1% figure is a reasonable estimate, but even if that is 10x too high then it would still have killed 50,000. Conversely perhaps the rate is even higher than 1%? "Oops, sorry about that, cocked up the figures" would hardly have cut it as a government excuse when the death toll topped half a million and was still rising.
 
Questions

Public questions

Deaths in black and ethnic origins in nhs ? Praise for the ones who have died in the nhs,learning what we can,very big pieces of scientific work going on,it will take time

Support for families of those who have died in nhs? Programme of support

Will primary aim of test,track and trace to be get R down ? Now it is down it will go with social distancing to keep the number down

Media

When will full test,track and trace be up and running ? Mid May ish

Businesses that need PPE,where will they get it,competition with the nhs ? Must go to the frontline first

Contract tracing,other countries used humans to track and not just the app? The app is very important and we are also using the testing and tracking by boots on the ground and call centres etc

Fewer number of cases by social distancing,is the most important thing,plus the app

Lockdown stays in place dependant on the tracing ?no

What about those without phones like the elderly ? Piloting on isle of white because they have a mixed community to see how it works,people who are out and about are more likely to have a phone and all

Lockdown in the isle of white lifted after this pilot ?no same rules apply

Immunity question,how are tests going? Antibody testing being used for lab based surveys,not for clinical use,next step is to move to Patients,looking for antibodies in people with positive tests is starting now,so far there are antibodies of various strengths,can you get it again ? Don't know yet ,can't give an individual patient that info,how long you are protected for we still don't know,we will have to test and retest patients over a couple of years,large trials going on,we haven't had this virus long enough yet to know,time will tell

To hancock would you feel happy to go into a crowded room as you have antibodies?

No,we simply don't know enough about immunity yet,we can't assume based on other corona virus,we have nothing yet to base a change of policy on
There has been false hope on antibody testing so cautious

Vaccine uptake,compulsory ? Hope and think enough will have it,we don't have a vaccine yet ,we remain hopeful of a vaccine,in children they might not need it,the other end of the scale will

Anti vaccine people ? Will only use a vaccine that is licensed and safe

Air pollution and covid ? Neither scientist have looked at it

App data protected ? High level of privacy built in,no personal info taken at all
 
RandomJ said:
I honestly just find myself worrying at the thought of "going back to normal" and "reopening the country." It feels like it's gaining momentum based on the general public getting increasingly more pissed off at being stuck inside the house than the science. It really does seem like in a couple of months time we will be back at square one all locked inside the house again after the virus has a resurgence.
Click to expand...

Feel the same way mate. My dad went back to work today and that feeling of security I had for my family immediately disappeared. So so worried about him. Feels like I'm just waiting for the inevitable now.
 
mrbelfry said:
absolutely not disagreeing with you or trying to start a fight but I've been wondering something for a while and your post gives me an opportunity to ask a question. I'm wondering where the people currently being infected are picking it up from? Is it people infecting other people in their own homes or are people getting it in supermarkets or at work? Does anyone even know?
Click to expand...
No idea really but would guess a fair few now that are testing positive are being picked up in various institutions, from care homes to prisons once in spreading quickly.
 
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